Moneyball and OBP in Oakland

This past weekend marked the long-anticipated release of Moneyball, the movie adaptation of Michael Lewis’ book detailing the surprising success of the 2002 Oakland Athletics—a roster that Oakland GM Billy Beane formed partly on “undervalued” statistics—namely, on-base-percentage (OBP).

As demonstrated in the film, Beane opted for the “Moneyball” strategy following the 2001 season, as the Athletics attempted to inexpensively fill the offensive voids left by the departures of Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon. Yet, because the Athletics traditionally fall near the bottom of the MLB in payroll, Beane was forced to find cheaper offensive production.

In 2001, the last season of Giambi and Damon in Oakland, the AL’s average OBP was .334. The A’s had five hitters with OBPs above the AL average (Giambi-.477; brother Jeremy Giambi-.391; Frank Menechino-.369; Eric Chavez-.338; Terrence Long-.335). The A’s were 3rd in the AL with a collective .345 OBP.

The Moneyball era opened with the 2002 season, and despite the loss of Jason Giambi and his unworldly OBP, the A’s team OBP fell only slightly, to .339 (5th in the AL), while the AL average dropped to .331. Of the eight A’s players who regularly played that season, six of them reached base at rates above the AL average (David Justice-.376; Scott Hatteberg-.374; Mark Ellis-.359; Miguel Tejada-.354; Chavez-.348; Jermaine Dye-.333).

The A’s won the AL West again in 2003, though their team OBP (.327) fell below the AL average (.333). Only four hitters had above-average OBPs (Erubiel Durazo-.374; Chavez-.350; Hatteberg-.342; Tejada-.336).

In 2004, the A’s narrowly missed the playoffs, but still won 91 games. The 2004 AL average OBP was .338, and the A’s had the fifth best in the AL at .343. Five A’s reached base at a higher frequency than the average AL hitter (Chavez-.397; Durazo-.396; Mark Kotsay-.370; Hatteberg-.367; and former-Mariner Eric Byrnes-.347).

The 2005 A’s won 88 games but missed the playoffs by seven games. Again, they finished fifth in the AL in OBP (.330) with six players reaching base above the AL average (Ellis-.384; Dan Johnson-.355; Bobby Kielty-.350; Bobby Crosby-.346; Jason Kendall-.345; Hatteberg-.334).

The A’s last made the playoffs in 2006, winning the West by four games with 93 wins. They were 7th in the AL in OBP (.340) and had six players reach base at above AL-average rates (Frank Thomas-.381; Nick Swisher-.372; Milton Bradley-.370; Kendall-.367; Chavez-.351; Marco Scutaro-.350). The A’s were ultimately swept in the ALCS by the Tigers.

2007 was the last season that the A’s finished among the top six teams in OBP (.338). They’ve only reached the .500 plateau once since 2006 (2010, 81-81). The last four years, the A’s have been toward the bottom of the AL in OBP: 13th (.318), 11th (.328), 9th (.324), and 12th (.311).

Does the recent trend indicate the A’s are moving away from the Moneyball approach showcased in the film? We witnessed the A’s dump one of their more successful Moneyball-esque players last year, Jack Cust, owner of a career .381 OBP in an A’s uniform and the highest A’s season OBP (.408 in 2007) since Jason Giambi left for New York.

The A’s will continue to suffer from financial woes so long as they play their homes games at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Over the past six seasons, the team had been no better than 12th in the AL (of 14) in attendance, finishing 13th twice and 14th twice. The A’s expect to hear from MLB very soon about a potential move to San Jose, where they’re hoping to build a new ballpark, generate greater revenue, and finally escape from their financial misery. But, with the Giants owning territorial rights to Santa Clara County, any move will be contentious.

The Effect of a Bean-Ball

On August 17th, former Mariner first-round draft pick, Brandon Morrow, threw a 97 mile-per-hour fastball high and inside to Mariner rookie, Casper Wells. Wells reacted, turning himself away from the pitch as best he could. Given the velocity of the pitch, though, Wells was unable to avoid the heater. The pitch glanced off his nose, requiring him to leave the ballgame.

Going into the game that day versus the Blue Jays, Wells was batting .280/.351/.516. Today, just over one month later, his numbers have declined to .237/.317/.442; and, he’s not even traveling with the team on the current road trip because he has felt sick and there is, according to Eric Wedge, “something going on with his head” requiring an MRI.

Since being hit in the nose by the Morrow fastball, a span of 18 games and 56 at-bats, Wells is batting just .125/.222/.250. He has hit just two homeruns, and struck out 23 times—over 40% of his at-bats.

It is possible that the slump may be attributed to opposing pitchers finally developing a more effective approach to beating Wells, now that he has played at the MLB level for a few months. Potentially of greater concern, though, is this: in the past, there have been hitters whose offensive production permanently declined following a hit-by-pitch to the head/face.

The most recent notable case study of offensive decline is David Wright. He was beaned by a Matt Cain fastball in August 2009. Mets fans will argue he has not hit the same since. Over his career, Wright has averaged 27 homeruns per season. In 2009, he hit just 10 homeruns, and now in 2011, he’s notched just 14. His OBP the past two seasons—.354 and .353—has been well below his career average of .381. Moreover, during his first four full seasons at the MLB level, David Wright never accumulated an offensive WAR (oWAR; wins-above-replacement value) below 5.4 (chronologically, beginning in 2005: 5.8; 5.4; 7.5; 6.7); but, over his last three seasons, he has not exceeded 4.6 (chronologically, beginning in 2009: 4.2; 4.6; 2.7).

David Wright’s production decline may not be entirely attributed to his being beaned in August 2009. But, many Mets followers seem to point to that incident as a turning point. Similarly, it may not be accurate to link Wells’ slump to his taking a Brandon Morrow fastball off the nose. Mariner fans hope that, in 2012, Casper Wells will look more like the guy we saw in August, with an OPS of .870, rather than the guy we have seen struggle thus far in September.

Previewing the AL West Stretch Run

It is now mid-September, and the last of the playoff stretch run is upon us. The closest contest in any of the MLB divisions right now is the AL West, where the LA Angels sit just 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers with more than two weeks of baseball still to play.

Let’s take a look, first, at what the Ranger schedule looks like the remainder of the season. They have five series left to play, fifteen total games. Of those fifteen games, only three are played against a team that now has a record over .500. The remaining twelve games are against the Indians (3 games, 72-72), Athletics (3 games, 66-80), and Mariners (6 games, 61-85). Against these three teams the Rangers hold an astounding 27-9 (.750 winning percentage) record in 2011. Only six of remaining games for the Rangers are to be played in Arlington, and the Rangers are much better at home (46-29, .613 winning percentage) than on the road (37-35, .514 winning percentage).

The Angels, too, have a relatively cushy schedule the rest of the way. The Angels have 16 games remaining. They too play the Athletics (6 games, 66-80), and they also play Orioles (3 games), who have the worst record in the American League (58-87). The Angels then go to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays (4 games, 74-73) before returning home to finish off their season. Against the Athletics, Orioles, and Blue Jays, the Angels are a combined 13-12 (.520 winning percentage).

The final three games of the year will likely determine the AL West. That final series will see the Angels will host the Rangers. The season series between the AL West titans gives the Rangers a slight edge. The Rangers have taken nine games against the Angels this season, while the Angels have won seven. And, of the seven games played between these teams in Anaheim this season, the Rangers have won four. Neither team has a series swept against the other this in 2011.

For the sake of keeping baseball relevant—now that the NFL season has kicked off—let’s all hope that the Angels/Rangers race is within three games going into that finale series September 26-28, especially if aces like Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson are squaring off with the AL West Championship on the line.

The Annual Chase for 200, Come September

Over the course of his career, Ichiro has averaged 226 hits per season. He’s strung together ten consecutive seasons of 200+ hits—an MLB record. But, as August winds down, Ichiro finds himself with 154 hits. The Mariners have 27 more games scheduled in September, so Ichiro will have to average more than one hit per game the remainder of the schedule in order to achieve another 200-hits this year.

Where has Ichiro sat, going into September in past seasons?

2001: 205 hits (242 total)
2002: 183 hits (208 total)
2003: 182 hits (212 total)
2004: 212 hits (262 total—MLB record)
2005: 164 hits (206 total)
2006: 180 hits (224 total)
2007: 196 hits (238 total)
2008: 179 hits (213 total)
2009: 184 hits (225 total)
2010: 169 hits (214 total)
2011: 154 hits (??? total)

As these numbers demonstrate, 2011 will be Ichiro’s most difficult road to 200. He needs to notch 46 hits. If history is any indication, Ichiro is capable of logging more than 46 hits in a given month. In fact, he’s done so more than a few times; but most of these months featured more than the 27 games the Mariners will play this September.


May 2001: 47 hits (27 games)
August 2001: 51 hits (28 games)
May 2004: 50 hits (27 games)
July 2004: 51 hits (26 games)
August 2004: 56 hits (28 games)
Sept/Oct 2004: 50 hits (31 games)
May 2006: 46 hits (29 games)
May 2007: 46 hits (30 games)
June 2007: 47 hits (27 games)
May 2009: 49 hits (29 games)

This season, Ichiro’s highest monthly hit total was 39 (April). He will have to turn it up a notch to reach the 200 hit milestone yet again. Can he get there? Sure. Will he? It doesn’t seem likely, at this point, given his numbers the past couple seasons. But, this week Eric Wedge again reiterated his intent to play Ichiro each day. So, the Mariner right-fielder will have all the opportunities he needs to make a run at the milestone.

Ichiro and Other $18-Million Men

Ichiro Suzuki signed a contract extension in the middle of the 2007 season, for an additional five years, and $90 million. That averages to $18 million per season under the contract, and the contract runs through the end of next season.

Ichiro’s 2011 season has been, by far, the worst of his career. Not only are his overall offensive numbers arguably worse than Yuniesky Betancourt’s (.258/.277/.385=.662 OPS vs. Ichiro’s .266/.304/.316=.620), but Ichiro has another full season left on his contract. And, Eric Wedge doesn’t appear to have any interest in benching or even moving Ichiro down the batting order.

Yet, after looking at the ballplayers being paid in the same ballpark as Ichiro this season, there is some comfort in knowing that other teams are also overpaying on bad contracts.

Also earning somewhere within the $18 million range this season are Jason Bay, Barry Zito, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Zambrano.

Jason Bay was signed to the Mets prior to the 2010 campaign, after he’d hit 36 HRs and had been an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and MVP candidate with Boston the season before. Things haven’t worked out for him in NY, where over the last season and a half, he’s batted a collective .249/.333/.376 for an OPS of .707 and a total of 15 bombs. His numbers are even worse this season. In 2011 he is .239/.320/.350 for a .670 OPS. He has two more years on his contract in New York, and Bay will make $18,125,000 in 2011.

In the offseason following the 2006 campaign, the San Francisco Giants signed former Cy Young winner Barry Zito to a 7-year, $126 million dollar deal. Zito was coming off his third All-Star season for the A’s. His first five years in San Francisco weren’t exactly what the Giants had anticipated. He’s never had a season with an ERA below 4.03. He’s not won more than 11 games (Zito had never won fewer than 11 games in his six full seasons in Oakland). He’d never thrown fewer than 213 innings per season with the Athletics. He’s failed to reach 200 innings in any of his seasons with San Francisco, and he’s been in the top 10 in losses in each of his first four full seasons with the Giants. He is currently 3-4 with a 5.62 ERA in nine starts (he’s spent considerable time on the DL), and this season Zito will make $18,500,000. Zito has two more years on his contract, where he is scheduled to earn $19 and $20 million through 2013.

The Angels signed perennial Gold Glove outfielder Torii Hunter to a 5-year, $90 million contract prior to the 2008 season. The Angels outfielder has largely lived up to expectations under the contract, as he’s averaged a .279/.348/.463, for an OPS of .811 under the deal. He’s been a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner in Anaheim. In 2011, he will make $18,500,000, and though his 2011 season started slow, Hunter has picked his offense up lately, and his overall 2011 numbers are shaping up, with respectable .256/.328/.416 line and 17 HRs. These days, Hunter patrols right-field for the Halos and occasionally takes his turn at DH. And, despite his advancing age, he’s found his groove in the dog days of August, where he’s hitting .389/.443/.625. Torii Hunter is signed through 2012.

Carlos Zambrano is currently in the fourth year of a 5-year, $91.5 million contract with the Cubs. He is earning $18,875,000 this season. On the field, statistically, he’s been a relatively consistent pitcher under this contract until this season. He’s spent some time on the disabled list, but, his ERA the past three seasons has been respectable (3.91; 3.77; 3.33). However, injuries, and his temper have derailed his career in Chicago. On May27, 2009 Zambrano was ejected from a game after an argument about a call at the plate. Zambrano threw the ball into left-field, tossed his glove, and smashed Gatorade jugs with a baseball bat. A 6-game suspension and fine followed. In 2010, Zambrano, after allowing a four-run inning first inning to the White Sox, confronted then-Cubs’ first-baseman Derrek Lee, which led to a dugout altercation. Zambrano was removed from the game and was suspended from the team indefinitely. Then, earlier this month, Zambrano was ejected from a game against the Braves after throwing inside on consecutive pitches that just missed Chipper Jones. Zambrano stormed into the clubhouse, cleaned out his locker, and told clubhouse personnel he was retiring. Zambrano’s actions have placed him on the disqualified list, and Cubs ownership has expressed doubt whether Zambrano will ever pitch for the Cubs again. Zambrano has another year on his contract, and he is 9-7 with a 4.82 in 2011.

After reviewing each of these $18-million dollar men, Ichiro’s contract appears far more palatable, even if the future Hall-of-Famer is overpaid. For a full list of the top-paid players in baseball, check out USA Today’s Top-25 Highest Paid Players of 2011.

Tracking the Youth Movement

Opening Day 2011 was a fresh start for a Mariner team that had lost 101 games the prior season. The organization hired a new manager and was looking to redefine its identity. The season has been a rollercoaster thus far, as the team flirted with a .500 record for some time, worked its way to within striking distance of the AL West leaders. The Mariners have also suffered prolonged periods of losing, including a stretch of 17 straight losses.

The Mariner roster has undergone substantial changes since Opening Day. Way back on April 1st down in Oakland, Eric Wedge’s lineup card named the following starters:

RF Ichiro
3B Figgins
LF Bradley
DH Cust
1B Smoak
C Olivo
CF Langerhans
SS Ryan
2B Wilson

These players’ roles have changed dramatically since the opener. Milton Bradley was released early this season on May 16, and Ryan Langerhans spent much of the season in Tacoma before being traded to the Diamondbacks organization later this summer. Jack Cust lost his DH job after a couple months, and was later DFA’d, after spending much of the summer on the bench. Jack Wilson, too, was relegated to bench duty for much of the season only to be dusted off at shortstop when Brendan Ryan went to the disabled list in August. Chone Figgins, too lost his starting job at 3B, before winding up on the disabled list.

Since Opening Day, fans have witnessed a revolving door at third base, left field, and designated hitter. Third base was Figgy’s for a while; but Adam Kennedy and Kyle Seager have each taken their turns as regulars out there. Left field has been home to Michael Saunders, Carlos Peguero, Mike Wilson, Greg Halman, Trayvon Robinson, Mike Carp, and Casper Wells.

Some young players have been given playing time, but haven’t stuck (Carlos Peguero). Some were never really given a consistent opportunity (Mike Wilson, Greg Halman). Others have capitalized on their opportunities and played well (Dustin Ackley, Mike Carp, Trayvon Robinson, Casper Wells).

The pitching staff has too undergone a youthful insurrection. A rotation that once contained Fister and Bedard now contains Beavan and Furbush. Dan Cortes, Chance Ruffin, and Josh Lueke are down in the bullpen; Chris Ray, Aaron Laffey, and David Pauley are gone.

The Mariner youth movement should continue through the remainder of the season. Expect some of the players we saw earlier this season to be recalled once rosters are expanded in September.

Franklin Gutierrez's Decline in Offensive Production

Following the 2009 season, the Mariners extended centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez with a contract for four years and just over $20 million. 2009 had been his breakout year, after arriving in Seattle in an offseason trade. He played in 153 ballgames, a career high. He batted .283 with 18 homeruns, and a .764 OPS, all the while playing at a gold-glove-level defensively.

Since the first half of 2009, Guti’s numbers have trailed off. Look at his body of work the past three seasons:

1st Half 2009: .295 AVG; .801 OPS; 10 HR
2nd Half 2009: .271 AVG; .727 OPS; 8 HR

1st Half 2010: .256 AVG; .717 OPS; 8 HR
2nd Half 2010: .230 AVG; .601 OPS; 4 HR

1st Half 2011: .187 AVG; .445 OPS; 1 HR
2nd Half 2011: .222 AVG; .560 OPS; 0 HR

Gutierrez’s defense remains fantastic, and his defense was recognized last year, as he received a Gold Glove. But, his offense has floundered now for the better part of the past two seasons. In fact, since June 2010, Gutierrez has just one month where he has batted over .247 (August 2010, he hit .257). And, in 2011, he’s not had a month where he’s hit over .243; in fact, in both June (.176) and July (.190), he batted well below the Mendoza Line, with an OPS below .500.

Last year, Guti missed some time with stomach issues. The Mariners have made efforts to remedy his ailment, but even into early 2011 his stomach continued to plague him, causing him to start this season on the disabled list. He’s lost weight and muscle mass as a result, and his power numbers have suffered as a consequence. He’s homered just once this season (May 25th at Target Field); on top of that, he has only seven extra-base hits all season.

After another 0-4 night tonight, Guti’s 2011 average currently sits at .194. How much longer can the Eric Wedge pencil him into the starting lineup? If he weren’t under contract beyond this season one has to think he’s have been DFA’d by now. Given the circumstances though, the Mariners will make every effort to wait and see if Gutierrez will regain his health and return to his 2009 form.

Gutierrez remains under contract through 2013. In 2012, he will earn $5.5 million; and, in 2013, he will earn $7 million. While the Mariners will hesitate to eat the remainder of his contract, one shouldn’t be surprised to see Guti work himself out of the starting lineup at some point, the same way Chone Figgins did earlier this season—especially if one of the young guys really emerges as a viable alternative. Jack Z has accumulated quite a few outfield prospects, some of whom are comfortable in centerfield. Greg Halman and Trayvon Robinson, two potential centerfielders, despite limited MLB exposure, have shown glimpses of power and defensive competence.

Hopefully, either Guti or one of these youngsters will soon assert himself as an offensive force and unquestioned starting centerfielder.