CBA Part 3: Arbitration

Under the new CBA, MLB changed its rules related to arbitration for players eligible for free agency. In years past, teams would choose whether or not to offer arbitration to their players eligible for free agency, and MLB classified players ranked in the top 20 percent at their position (as ranked by the Elias Sports Bureau) as Type A free agents. Those ranked in the 20-40 percentile at their position were classified as Type B free agents.

If a team offered its Type A free agents arbitration, and he declined the offer to sign with another team, the team that offered its player arbitration would receive two compensation picks. The free agent’s former team would receive the first pick in the June amateur draft from the team that ultimately signed the Type A free agent (if the signing team finished in the bottom 15 teams, it would not lose its first round pick, but instead its second round pick). The free agent’s former team would also receive a “sandwich” pick between the first and second rounds of the draft.

If a team offered its Type B free agent arbitration, and the free agent declined the offer to sign with another team, then the team offering arbitration would receive a single compensation “sandwich” pick between the first and second rounds in the June draft. The signing team would not lose any of draft picks.

So, looking at things from another angle, a team that signed a Type A free agent away from another team would lose its first pick in the draft to the team from which the free agent was signed.

Under the new CBA, the arbitration system has been totally revamped. Now, any offer of arbitration to a free agent must be in an amount of the average annual salary of the top 125 MLB players (or top 20 percent). This currently comes out to roughly $12 million per season.

So, under the new system, teams will weigh whether or not their free agents are worth at least $12 million a season. If a player thinks he can get more on the open market, he will decline arbitration and gamble on a better pay day elsewhere. So, the only teams that offer their free agents that $12 million in arbitration will be eligible for a compensation pick from the signing team, if their free agent declines arbitration to sign elsewhere.

This new system will most help free agent relievers who were formerly classified as Type A free agents. This year, there were eight Type A free agent relievers: Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, Matt Capps, Francisco Rodriguez, Octavio Dotel, Takashi Saito, Darren Oliver, and Francisco Cordero. How many of these guys are worth $12 million a season? In past years, if guys like Dotel and Oliver declined arbitration, any team signing them would lose their first round draft pick (or second round, depending on how well the signing team finished the prior season). This practice discouraged teams from signing Type A relievers. Many teams would not want to forfeit their first round draft picks to sign guys like Darren Oliver or Octavio Dotel?

Under the new system, the Cardinals would have needed to offer Dotel $12.4 million in arbitration; then, Dotel would have needed to decline that arbitration offer and sign elsewhere in order for the Cardinals to receive the compensation pick from the signing team. In reality, Dotel signed a one-year contract with the Tigers (with an option for 2013) for $3 million.

CBA Part 2: Playoff Reconfiguration

Major League Baseball’s latest collective bargaining agreement (CBA) will expand the playoffs by adding an additional wild card team in each league. Now, both leagues will advance five playoff teams each season.

Under the new alignment, each league will have its two wild card teams square off in a one-game playoff to see which team will then advance to each league’s division series. Aside from this “play-in” game between the two wild card teams, the rest of the playoff structure will be same: a best-of-five Division Series, a best-of-seven Championship Series, and a best-of-seven World Series.

MLB adopted its playoff system in 1969 with two division champions squaring off in a Championship Series; and, in 1994 MLB realigned and expanded the playoffs to include a champion from each of three divisions plus a wildcard team.

How many additional playoff berths would the Mariners have had, had this second wild card been added back in 1994? Well, it would have depended on some tie-breakers.

In 2007, the Mariners finished 88-74 (.543 winning %), which tied the Detroit Tigers for 5th in the American League. So, the Mariners would have played a one-game playoff against the Tigers, with the winner advancing as the 2nd AL wild card team. The Mariners, if they would have won the one-game play-in against the Tigers, would have faced off against the Yankees in the wild-card playoff game.

In 2003, the Mariners finished 93-69, three games behind Oakland in the AL West. 93 wins would have qualified the Mariners for the playoffs as the 2nd AL wild card team. They would have faced off against the Red Sox in the wild-card playoff game.

In 2002, the Mariners finished 93-69, ten games behind Oakland, and six games behind the Angels (who won the wild card). But, the Mariners still tied for the 5th best record in the AL. They would have squared off against the Red Sox in a one-game play-in for a chance to reach the one-game AL wild-card playoff game. Three of the four AL West teams could have qualified for the playoffs.

In 1996, the Mariners finished 85-76 (.528 %). Both the Red Sox and White Sox finished 85-77 (.525%). The Mariners had a game postponed at some point during the season that was never made up because it had no effect on the playoff picture. Under the new playoff structure, the Mariners would have played that last game. Had they won that postponed game, the Mariners would have qualified for the playoffs as the second wild card team at 86-76. Had they lost that postponed game, they would have been locked in a 3-way tie with the Red Sox and White Sox.

The three-way tie would have played out like this. The Commissioner would have conducted a draw, designating the teams A, B, and C. First, team A would play team B with team A as the home team. The following day, the winner of the that game would play team C with team C as the away team. The winner of the game on the second day would advance as the second AL wild card team. Because the Mariners and Red Sox were each 13-12 and the White Sox were 11-13 against the other tied teams (Mariners/Red Sox/White Sox), the Mariners and Red Sox would draw lots. The winner would choose its designation (A, B, or C) first; the loser of the draw would pick its designation second, with the White Sox being assigned the third designation.

Had MLB applied this latest playoff configuration since 1994, the Mariners would have definitely qualified for the playoffs at least one other time, 2003. They would have had additional tie-breaker opportunities to reach the playoffs three more times: 2007, 2002, and 1996.

The new playoff structure should keep winning teams in the playoff picture later into the season. At least, that’s what MLB hopes.

CBA Part 1: Regulation of Smokeless Tobacco

Major League Baseball’s new five-year collective bargaining agreement contains a number of new provisions. I would like to spend part of the offseason discussing some of the various aspects of the new CBA.

The CBA makes some important changes to divisional alignment, playoff structure, and the first-year amateur player draft. One relatively minor provision in the new CBA places some limitations on players’ use of smokeless tobacco, without actually banning its use.

Specifically, under the CBA, players have agreed to no longer carry in their pockets, at times when fans are in the ballpark, tobacco cans or packages. Players will also no longer be able to use tobacco during pregame or postgame interviews or at team functions.

Of course, these restrictions do not actually limit the use of tobacco on the field. Players just will not be able to carry the tins in their back pockets.

It is unclear why these new regulations were instituted; though, obviously the players’ union made these minor concessions at the urging of the Commissioner and politicians—who pushed a far more stringent ban on all on-field tobacco use. The new regulations do nothing to promote healthier ballplayers, as players will still be permitted to dip as much as they want. The regulations do not shield impressionable children from seeing their idols dip, as players will still fill their lower lip with dip as televisions cameras zoom in and broadcast their bulging lips and cheeks on oversized high-definition televisions for children everywhere to see and emulate.

Minor league baseball, where the players are not unionized, banned tobacco use since 1993.

Which Division is the Strongest in Baseball?

In 1994 Major League Baseball implemented its current playoff configuration: one that includes three divisions and a wild card in each league. Because of the 1994-95 players’ strike, MLB did not utilize its new playoff alignment until the 1995 postseason. The current playoff system has been in place for seventeen seasons.

I wanted to identify the individual divisions that have had the greatest playoff success, so as to find the “strongest division” in baseball. So, the way I measured the strength of these divisions was by adding up how many playoff series each division has won in this modern playoff system.

Here is what I did. I went through the past seventeen postseasons, and I counted how many playoff series each division won each postseason. This year, for example, the AL West won two series (the Rangers won the ALDS and ALCS); the AL Central won one series (Tigers won an ALDS); the AL East, NL East, and NL West each won zero series (the Rays, Yankees, Phillies, and Diamondbacks were all bumped without winning a series); and, the NL Central won four series (the Cardinals won three series—an NLDS, NLCS, and WS; and, the Brewers won one, a NLDS).

The totals reveal the most powerful postseason division the past seventeen seasons: the AL East. The NL East finished a close second place.

AL West: 17
AL Central: 13
AL East: 30

NL West: 15
NL Central: 18
NL East: 26

Most fans are probably not surprised by these numbers. While the AL and NL East have collectively achieved the most post season success, other MLB divisions have been relatively even.

A baseball observer may determine the relative strength of MLB’s various divisions a number of ways: total wins, post season berths, world championships, etc. But, I have not seen this particular measurement, which builds an obvious advantage into the division that lands the wild card (a wild card winner has won the World Series five times).

Recapping Early-Season Predictions

Back in early April I predicted who would earn each of the eight playoff spots. It turns out, I only identified two of the eight teams that eventually made the playoffs: the Phillies and the Yankees (who I picked as the AL Wildcard team).

My AL West pick: Oakland Athletics, 3rd place

I chose the A’s to win the AL West, largely because of their pitching staff. Unfortunately for Oakland, both Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden missed significant time this season with injuries. Also, the A’s never really hit. The Rangers enjoyed a resurgent Michael Young, and Mike Napoli had his best offensive year to date. The addition of Adrian Beltre and the usual contributions from Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and the rest of the Rangers lineup were too much for the rest of the AL West.

My AL Central pick: Minnesota Twins, 5th place (worst record in AL)

I picked the Twins to take the AL Central. They, however, never got going at all. Their big boppers never developed any rhythm, as Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer were both sidelined for a large part of the season. A mid-market team like Minnesota cannot overcome so many injuries. Only three players played at least 100 games for the Twins this season (Valencia, Revere, Cuddyer). And, by the end of the season, only three position players on the Twins’ opening day squad were still on the active roster (Valencia, Butera, Cuddyer). The Tigers capitalized. Justin Verlander is the AL Cy Young frontrunner, and Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate. Combine that with great production from young Alex Avila, and veterans Jhonny Peralta and Victor Martinez, and run production wasn’t a major problem. Finally, Jose Valverde led the league in saves, closing the door in each of his save opportunities.

My AL East pick: Boston Red Sox, 3rd place

I went with Boston, and given the fact that they added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to an already-good offensive lineup, I assumed they’d pitch well enough to cruise to an AL East title. Even with their payroll, starpower, and 90 wins, the Sox team ERA of 4.20 and historic collapse down the stretch (7-20 in September) left them at home this postseason. The Red Sox were 31 games over .500 at the end of August, leading the AL East. But ultimately, the Yankees capitalized on the Red Sox collapse, hitting their way to take the AL East crown; and, the Rays stormed back to win the AL Wildcard in dramatic fashion on the last day of the regular season.

My NL West pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, 3rd place

I felt the Dodgers would take the NL West. Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw will be candidates for the NL MVP and NL Cy Young, after posting outstanding season totals. But, the Dodgers were slow out of the gate offensively (see James Loney and Rod Barajas) and off-field distractions—ownership and bankruptcy—plagued the organization. They were fourteen games under .500 in early July, before playing a strong second half (34-20 in August/September) to finish the season three games over .500. The Arizona Diamondbacks came out of nowhere this season to win 94 games. The Diamondbacks hit just enough, and enjoyed consistent starting pitching (four starters won at least ten games, with ERAs below 3.70) and a strong bullpen anchored by JJ Putz. Analysts rave about the ballclub’s toughness and never-give-up attitude, that they attribute to manager Kirk Gibson’s influence.

My NL Central pick: Chicago Cubs, 5th place

Well, I went with the Cubs. Despite decent hitting (they were middle-of-the-NL in runs scored, and enjoyed good power production from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Alfonso Soriano), their pitching was absolutely atrocious. The Cubs’ team ERA was 4.34, worst in the NL. Both the Brewers and Cardinals reached the playoffs from the NL Central. The Brewers led the NL in homeruns and SLG. Also, the Brewers had five starters win at least 11 games as well as a bullpen featuring John Axford (46 saves, 1.95 ERA). The Cardinals hung around long enough to roll off an 18-win September to overcome the Braves for the NL Wildcard on the last day of the season.

My NL East pick: Philadelphia Phillies

I got this one correct. R2C2 (Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels) was as good as advertised. The Phillies won 102 games (most in franchise history), were never below .500, and led (or shared the lead) in the NL East every day of the regular season except one (down by a half-game on April 26).

The MLB season is long and unpredictable. That doesn’t stop bloggers and fans all over from trying to guess what will happen and who will win.

Moneyball and OBP in Oakland

This past weekend marked the long-anticipated release of Moneyball, the movie adaptation of Michael Lewis’ book detailing the surprising success of the 2002 Oakland Athletics—a roster that Oakland GM Billy Beane formed partly on “undervalued” statistics—namely, on-base-percentage (OBP).

As demonstrated in the film, Beane opted for the “Moneyball” strategy following the 2001 season, as the Athletics attempted to inexpensively fill the offensive voids left by the departures of Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon. Yet, because the Athletics traditionally fall near the bottom of the MLB in payroll, Beane was forced to find cheaper offensive production.

In 2001, the last season of Giambi and Damon in Oakland, the AL’s average OBP was .334. The A’s had five hitters with OBPs above the AL average (Giambi-.477; brother Jeremy Giambi-.391; Frank Menechino-.369; Eric Chavez-.338; Terrence Long-.335). The A’s were 3rd in the AL with a collective .345 OBP.

The Moneyball era opened with the 2002 season, and despite the loss of Jason Giambi and his unworldly OBP, the A’s team OBP fell only slightly, to .339 (5th in the AL), while the AL average dropped to .331. Of the eight A’s players who regularly played that season, six of them reached base at rates above the AL average (David Justice-.376; Scott Hatteberg-.374; Mark Ellis-.359; Miguel Tejada-.354; Chavez-.348; Jermaine Dye-.333).

The A’s won the AL West again in 2003, though their team OBP (.327) fell below the AL average (.333). Only four hitters had above-average OBPs (Erubiel Durazo-.374; Chavez-.350; Hatteberg-.342; Tejada-.336).

In 2004, the A’s narrowly missed the playoffs, but still won 91 games. The 2004 AL average OBP was .338, and the A’s had the fifth best in the AL at .343. Five A’s reached base at a higher frequency than the average AL hitter (Chavez-.397; Durazo-.396; Mark Kotsay-.370; Hatteberg-.367; and former-Mariner Eric Byrnes-.347).

The 2005 A’s won 88 games but missed the playoffs by seven games. Again, they finished fifth in the AL in OBP (.330) with six players reaching base above the AL average (Ellis-.384; Dan Johnson-.355; Bobby Kielty-.350; Bobby Crosby-.346; Jason Kendall-.345; Hatteberg-.334).

The A’s last made the playoffs in 2006, winning the West by four games with 93 wins. They were 7th in the AL in OBP (.340) and had six players reach base at above AL-average rates (Frank Thomas-.381; Nick Swisher-.372; Milton Bradley-.370; Kendall-.367; Chavez-.351; Marco Scutaro-.350). The A’s were ultimately swept in the ALCS by the Tigers.

2007 was the last season that the A’s finished among the top six teams in OBP (.338). They’ve only reached the .500 plateau once since 2006 (2010, 81-81). The last four years, the A’s have been toward the bottom of the AL in OBP: 13th (.318), 11th (.328), 9th (.324), and 12th (.311).

Does the recent trend indicate the A’s are moving away from the Moneyball approach showcased in the film? We witnessed the A’s dump one of their more successful Moneyball-esque players last year, Jack Cust, owner of a career .381 OBP in an A’s uniform and the highest A’s season OBP (.408 in 2007) since Jason Giambi left for New York.

The A’s will continue to suffer from financial woes so long as they play their homes games at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Over the past six seasons, the team had been no better than 12th in the AL (of 14) in attendance, finishing 13th twice and 14th twice. The A’s expect to hear from MLB very soon about a potential move to San Jose, where they’re hoping to build a new ballpark, generate greater revenue, and finally escape from their financial misery. But, with the Giants owning territorial rights to Santa Clara County, any move will be contentious.

The Effect of a Bean-Ball

On August 17th, former Mariner first-round draft pick, Brandon Morrow, threw a 97 mile-per-hour fastball high and inside to Mariner rookie, Casper Wells. Wells reacted, turning himself away from the pitch as best he could. Given the velocity of the pitch, though, Wells was unable to avoid the heater. The pitch glanced off his nose, requiring him to leave the ballgame.

Going into the game that day versus the Blue Jays, Wells was batting .280/.351/.516. Today, just over one month later, his numbers have declined to .237/.317/.442; and, he’s not even traveling with the team on the current road trip because he has felt sick and there is, according to Eric Wedge, “something going on with his head” requiring an MRI.

Since being hit in the nose by the Morrow fastball, a span of 18 games and 56 at-bats, Wells is batting just .125/.222/.250. He has hit just two homeruns, and struck out 23 times—over 40% of his at-bats.

It is possible that the slump may be attributed to opposing pitchers finally developing a more effective approach to beating Wells, now that he has played at the MLB level for a few months. Potentially of greater concern, though, is this: in the past, there have been hitters whose offensive production permanently declined following a hit-by-pitch to the head/face.

The most recent notable case study of offensive decline is David Wright. He was beaned by a Matt Cain fastball in August 2009. Mets fans will argue he has not hit the same since. Over his career, Wright has averaged 27 homeruns per season. In 2009, he hit just 10 homeruns, and now in 2011, he’s notched just 14. His OBP the past two seasons—.354 and .353—has been well below his career average of .381. Moreover, during his first four full seasons at the MLB level, David Wright never accumulated an offensive WAR (oWAR; wins-above-replacement value) below 5.4 (chronologically, beginning in 2005: 5.8; 5.4; 7.5; 6.7); but, over his last three seasons, he has not exceeded 4.6 (chronologically, beginning in 2009: 4.2; 4.6; 2.7).

David Wright’s production decline may not be entirely attributed to his being beaned in August 2009. But, many Mets followers seem to point to that incident as a turning point. Similarly, it may not be accurate to link Wells’ slump to his taking a Brandon Morrow fastball off the nose. Mariner fans hope that, in 2012, Casper Wells will look more like the guy we saw in August, with an OPS of .870, rather than the guy we have seen struggle thus far in September.

Previewing the AL West Stretch Run

It is now mid-September, and the last of the playoff stretch run is upon us. The closest contest in any of the MLB divisions right now is the AL West, where the LA Angels sit just 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers with more than two weeks of baseball still to play.

Let’s take a look, first, at what the Ranger schedule looks like the remainder of the season. They have five series left to play, fifteen total games. Of those fifteen games, only three are played against a team that now has a record over .500. The remaining twelve games are against the Indians (3 games, 72-72), Athletics (3 games, 66-80), and Mariners (6 games, 61-85). Against these three teams the Rangers hold an astounding 27-9 (.750 winning percentage) record in 2011. Only six of remaining games for the Rangers are to be played in Arlington, and the Rangers are much better at home (46-29, .613 winning percentage) than on the road (37-35, .514 winning percentage).

The Angels, too, have a relatively cushy schedule the rest of the way. The Angels have 16 games remaining. They too play the Athletics (6 games, 66-80), and they also play Orioles (3 games), who have the worst record in the American League (58-87). The Angels then go to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays (4 games, 74-73) before returning home to finish off their season. Against the Athletics, Orioles, and Blue Jays, the Angels are a combined 13-12 (.520 winning percentage).

The final three games of the year will likely determine the AL West. That final series will see the Angels will host the Rangers. The season series between the AL West titans gives the Rangers a slight edge. The Rangers have taken nine games against the Angels this season, while the Angels have won seven. And, of the seven games played between these teams in Anaheim this season, the Rangers have won four. Neither team has a series swept against the other this in 2011.

For the sake of keeping baseball relevant—now that the NFL season has kicked off—let’s all hope that the Angels/Rangers race is within three games going into that finale series September 26-28, especially if aces like Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson are squaring off with the AL West Championship on the line.

The Annual Chase for 200, Come September

Over the course of his career, Ichiro has averaged 226 hits per season. He’s strung together ten consecutive seasons of 200+ hits—an MLB record. But, as August winds down, Ichiro finds himself with 154 hits. The Mariners have 27 more games scheduled in September, so Ichiro will have to average more than one hit per game the remainder of the schedule in order to achieve another 200-hits this year.

Where has Ichiro sat, going into September in past seasons?

2001: 205 hits (242 total)
2002: 183 hits (208 total)
2003: 182 hits (212 total)
2004: 212 hits (262 total—MLB record)
2005: 164 hits (206 total)
2006: 180 hits (224 total)
2007: 196 hits (238 total)
2008: 179 hits (213 total)
2009: 184 hits (225 total)
2010: 169 hits (214 total)
2011: 154 hits (??? total)

As these numbers demonstrate, 2011 will be Ichiro’s most difficult road to 200. He needs to notch 46 hits. If history is any indication, Ichiro is capable of logging more than 46 hits in a given month. In fact, he’s done so more than a few times; but most of these months featured more than the 27 games the Mariners will play this September.


May 2001: 47 hits (27 games)
August 2001: 51 hits (28 games)
May 2004: 50 hits (27 games)
July 2004: 51 hits (26 games)
August 2004: 56 hits (28 games)
Sept/Oct 2004: 50 hits (31 games)
May 2006: 46 hits (29 games)
May 2007: 46 hits (30 games)
June 2007: 47 hits (27 games)
May 2009: 49 hits (29 games)

This season, Ichiro’s highest monthly hit total was 39 (April). He will have to turn it up a notch to reach the 200 hit milestone yet again. Can he get there? Sure. Will he? It doesn’t seem likely, at this point, given his numbers the past couple seasons. But, this week Eric Wedge again reiterated his intent to play Ichiro each day. So, the Mariner right-fielder will have all the opportunities he needs to make a run at the milestone.

Ichiro and Other $18-Million Men

Ichiro Suzuki signed a contract extension in the middle of the 2007 season, for an additional five years, and $90 million. That averages to $18 million per season under the contract, and the contract runs through the end of next season.

Ichiro’s 2011 season has been, by far, the worst of his career. Not only are his overall offensive numbers arguably worse than Yuniesky Betancourt’s (.258/.277/.385=.662 OPS vs. Ichiro’s .266/.304/.316=.620), but Ichiro has another full season left on his contract. And, Eric Wedge doesn’t appear to have any interest in benching or even moving Ichiro down the batting order.

Yet, after looking at the ballplayers being paid in the same ballpark as Ichiro this season, there is some comfort in knowing that other teams are also overpaying on bad contracts.

Also earning somewhere within the $18 million range this season are Jason Bay, Barry Zito, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Zambrano.

Jason Bay was signed to the Mets prior to the 2010 campaign, after he’d hit 36 HRs and had been an All-Star, Silver Slugger, and MVP candidate with Boston the season before. Things haven’t worked out for him in NY, where over the last season and a half, he’s batted a collective .249/.333/.376 for an OPS of .707 and a total of 15 bombs. His numbers are even worse this season. In 2011 he is .239/.320/.350 for a .670 OPS. He has two more years on his contract in New York, and Bay will make $18,125,000 in 2011.

In the offseason following the 2006 campaign, the San Francisco Giants signed former Cy Young winner Barry Zito to a 7-year, $126 million dollar deal. Zito was coming off his third All-Star season for the A’s. His first five years in San Francisco weren’t exactly what the Giants had anticipated. He’s never had a season with an ERA below 4.03. He’s not won more than 11 games (Zito had never won fewer than 11 games in his six full seasons in Oakland). He’d never thrown fewer than 213 innings per season with the Athletics. He’s failed to reach 200 innings in any of his seasons with San Francisco, and he’s been in the top 10 in losses in each of his first four full seasons with the Giants. He is currently 3-4 with a 5.62 ERA in nine starts (he’s spent considerable time on the DL), and this season Zito will make $18,500,000. Zito has two more years on his contract, where he is scheduled to earn $19 and $20 million through 2013.

The Angels signed perennial Gold Glove outfielder Torii Hunter to a 5-year, $90 million contract prior to the 2008 season. The Angels outfielder has largely lived up to expectations under the contract, as he’s averaged a .279/.348/.463, for an OPS of .811 under the deal. He’s been a two-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner in Anaheim. In 2011, he will make $18,500,000, and though his 2011 season started slow, Hunter has picked his offense up lately, and his overall 2011 numbers are shaping up, with respectable .256/.328/.416 line and 17 HRs. These days, Hunter patrols right-field for the Halos and occasionally takes his turn at DH. And, despite his advancing age, he’s found his groove in the dog days of August, where he’s hitting .389/.443/.625. Torii Hunter is signed through 2012.

Carlos Zambrano is currently in the fourth year of a 5-year, $91.5 million contract with the Cubs. He is earning $18,875,000 this season. On the field, statistically, he’s been a relatively consistent pitcher under this contract until this season. He’s spent some time on the disabled list, but, his ERA the past three seasons has been respectable (3.91; 3.77; 3.33). However, injuries, and his temper have derailed his career in Chicago. On May27, 2009 Zambrano was ejected from a game after an argument about a call at the plate. Zambrano threw the ball into left-field, tossed his glove, and smashed Gatorade jugs with a baseball bat. A 6-game suspension and fine followed. In 2010, Zambrano, after allowing a four-run inning first inning to the White Sox, confronted then-Cubs’ first-baseman Derrek Lee, which led to a dugout altercation. Zambrano was removed from the game and was suspended from the team indefinitely. Then, earlier this month, Zambrano was ejected from a game against the Braves after throwing inside on consecutive pitches that just missed Chipper Jones. Zambrano stormed into the clubhouse, cleaned out his locker, and told clubhouse personnel he was retiring. Zambrano’s actions have placed him on the disqualified list, and Cubs ownership has expressed doubt whether Zambrano will ever pitch for the Cubs again. Zambrano has another year on his contract, and he is 9-7 with a 4.82 in 2011.

After reviewing each of these $18-million dollar men, Ichiro’s contract appears far more palatable, even if the future Hall-of-Famer is overpaid. For a full list of the top-paid players in baseball, check out USA Today’s Top-25 Highest Paid Players of 2011.

Tracking the Youth Movement

Opening Day 2011 was a fresh start for a Mariner team that had lost 101 games the prior season. The organization hired a new manager and was looking to redefine its identity. The season has been a rollercoaster thus far, as the team flirted with a .500 record for some time, worked its way to within striking distance of the AL West leaders. The Mariners have also suffered prolonged periods of losing, including a stretch of 17 straight losses.

The Mariner roster has undergone substantial changes since Opening Day. Way back on April 1st down in Oakland, Eric Wedge’s lineup card named the following starters:

RF Ichiro
3B Figgins
LF Bradley
DH Cust
1B Smoak
C Olivo
CF Langerhans
SS Ryan
2B Wilson

These players’ roles have changed dramatically since the opener. Milton Bradley was released early this season on May 16, and Ryan Langerhans spent much of the season in Tacoma before being traded to the Diamondbacks organization later this summer. Jack Cust lost his DH job after a couple months, and was later DFA’d, after spending much of the summer on the bench. Jack Wilson, too, was relegated to bench duty for much of the season only to be dusted off at shortstop when Brendan Ryan went to the disabled list in August. Chone Figgins, too lost his starting job at 3B, before winding up on the disabled list.

Since Opening Day, fans have witnessed a revolving door at third base, left field, and designated hitter. Third base was Figgy’s for a while; but Adam Kennedy and Kyle Seager have each taken their turns as regulars out there. Left field has been home to Michael Saunders, Carlos Peguero, Mike Wilson, Greg Halman, Trayvon Robinson, Mike Carp, and Casper Wells.

Some young players have been given playing time, but haven’t stuck (Carlos Peguero). Some were never really given a consistent opportunity (Mike Wilson, Greg Halman). Others have capitalized on their opportunities and played well (Dustin Ackley, Mike Carp, Trayvon Robinson, Casper Wells).

The pitching staff has too undergone a youthful insurrection. A rotation that once contained Fister and Bedard now contains Beavan and Furbush. Dan Cortes, Chance Ruffin, and Josh Lueke are down in the bullpen; Chris Ray, Aaron Laffey, and David Pauley are gone.

The Mariner youth movement should continue through the remainder of the season. Expect some of the players we saw earlier this season to be recalled once rosters are expanded in September.

Franklin Gutierrez's Decline in Offensive Production

Following the 2009 season, the Mariners extended centerfielder Franklin Gutierrez with a contract for four years and just over $20 million. 2009 had been his breakout year, after arriving in Seattle in an offseason trade. He played in 153 ballgames, a career high. He batted .283 with 18 homeruns, and a .764 OPS, all the while playing at a gold-glove-level defensively.

Since the first half of 2009, Guti’s numbers have trailed off. Look at his body of work the past three seasons:

1st Half 2009: .295 AVG; .801 OPS; 10 HR
2nd Half 2009: .271 AVG; .727 OPS; 8 HR

1st Half 2010: .256 AVG; .717 OPS; 8 HR
2nd Half 2010: .230 AVG; .601 OPS; 4 HR

1st Half 2011: .187 AVG; .445 OPS; 1 HR
2nd Half 2011: .222 AVG; .560 OPS; 0 HR

Gutierrez’s defense remains fantastic, and his defense was recognized last year, as he received a Gold Glove. But, his offense has floundered now for the better part of the past two seasons. In fact, since June 2010, Gutierrez has just one month where he has batted over .247 (August 2010, he hit .257). And, in 2011, he’s not had a month where he’s hit over .243; in fact, in both June (.176) and July (.190), he batted well below the Mendoza Line, with an OPS below .500.

Last year, Guti missed some time with stomach issues. The Mariners have made efforts to remedy his ailment, but even into early 2011 his stomach continued to plague him, causing him to start this season on the disabled list. He’s lost weight and muscle mass as a result, and his power numbers have suffered as a consequence. He’s homered just once this season (May 25th at Target Field); on top of that, he has only seven extra-base hits all season.

After another 0-4 night tonight, Guti’s 2011 average currently sits at .194. How much longer can the Eric Wedge pencil him into the starting lineup? If he weren’t under contract beyond this season one has to think he’s have been DFA’d by now. Given the circumstances though, the Mariners will make every effort to wait and see if Gutierrez will regain his health and return to his 2009 form.

Gutierrez remains under contract through 2013. In 2012, he will earn $5.5 million; and, in 2013, he will earn $7 million. While the Mariners will hesitate to eat the remainder of his contract, one shouldn’t be surprised to see Guti work himself out of the starting lineup at some point, the same way Chone Figgins did earlier this season—especially if one of the young guys really emerges as a viable alternative. Jack Z has accumulated quite a few outfield prospects, some of whom are comfortable in centerfield. Greg Halman and Trayvon Robinson, two potential centerfielders, despite limited MLB exposure, have shown glimpses of power and defensive competence.

Hopefully, either Guti or one of these youngsters will soon assert himself as an offensive force and unquestioned starting centerfielder.

Underperforming Veterans

Eric Wedge came out this week, criticizing his underachieving veterans. Today, Jack Cust, one of those underachievers, was designated for assignment. Cust was hitting just .213 this season, with an OPS of .673. His career average and OPS are .242 and .813. He’s averaged 25 homeruns per 162 games over his career. He hit three so far this season. Cust isn’t the only one struggling at the plate. Up and down the lineup, most of the veteran position players have significantly underperformed.

Ichiro’s batting average, .272, is over fifty points below his career average, .328. His OPS, .640, is nearly 160 points below his career norm (.796). He is currently on pace to notch just 182 hits, which will be his first season of fewer than 200. Ichiro has another year and $18 million left on his contract in 2012.

Chone Figgins has been a disappointment since he first donned a Mariners jersey last season. He started slowly last year, and only picked it up once the Mariners were well out of the AL West race. He ended 2010 hitting .259. If last year was a slow start, this season has been a nightmare. Figgy is batting just .180 with a .471 OPS in 2011. The average is 100 points below his career average and the OPS is almost 250 points below his career level (.720). Figgins has two more years, and $18 million more on his contract. Yikes.

Franklin Gutierrez’s offensive struggles this season may be affected by ongoing stomach ailments. Regardless, his offense has been horrible. He’s batting just .193, with a .471 OPS. Unfortunately for the Mariners, after his first season in a Mariner uniform, when he batted almost 100 points higher and had an OPS nearly 300 points higher than this season, Jack Z offered Guti a long-term contract. He’s got two more years left on that 4-year, $20 million deal.

Miguel Olivo is also underperforming. He’s batting just .217 this season, with a .639 OPS, well below his career .243 and .703 career norms. His defense has also been an issue. He also leads all American League catchers with eight errors behind the plate; and, he is second in the AL in passed balls (8, Saltalamacchia-12). Olivo is in the first year of a 2-year, $7 million deal.

Of all the position-player veterans on the Mariner roster, Brendan Ryan’s season most closely resembles his career averages: his 2011 batting average (.263) and OPS (.661) are nearly identical to his career numbers (.260 and .658), despite switching from the National to the American League.

Ichiro, Figgins, Gutierrez, and Olivo will not likely be DFA’d in 2011. Too much money remains on their contracts. As a result, Mariner fans will have to sit and watch these veterans continue to struggle.

Revolving Door: Mariner Hitting Coach

The Seattle Mariners have a history of chewing up and spitting out batting coaches. The revolving door of hitting coaches the past decade has featured Hall of Famers, World Series Champions, and former All-Stars and Rookies of the Year. Nobody has been able to establish offensive consistency for years. Chris Chambliss, the 1971 AL Rookie of the Year and six-time World Series Champion (two times as a player and four times as a coach), is the current Mariners batting coach. If history is any indication, his seat may be heating beneath him. Look at the two most recent casualties of the chronically-lousy Mariner offense.

Jeff Pentland – Fired June 9, 2008.

On the morning of June 9, 2008, the Mariners were preparing for a series in Toronto, and reeling from a two-game losing streak that saw their record fall to 22-41. At the time, the Mariner offense held a collective .248 batting average, with a .305 on-base-percentage, and .377 slugging percentage—for a .682 OPS. That day, Mariner batting coach, Jeff Pentland was relieved of his duties and longtime Mariner coach, Lee Elia, assumed the role of hitting coach. The Mariners went on to lose 101 games.

Alan Cockrell – Fired May 9, 2010.

Prior to a Sunday afternoon game at home against the Angels on May 9, 2010, the Mariners fired hitting coach Alan Cockrell. Cockrell’s offense at the time was hitting .225, with a .302 OBP, and a .315 SLG—good for a .617 OPS. Cockrell was replaced by AAA Hitting Coach Alonzo Powell for the remainder of the 2010 season. The Mariners went on to lose 101 games.

Chris Chambliss – Still Employed on July 6, 2011.

The Mariners lost again today, 0-2 in Oakland, after collecting just two hits against the A’s pitching staff, led by Guillermo Moscoso. The Mariners are currently sitting in last place in the Major Leagues, in every major offensive category—fewest runs scored (292), lowest batting average (.226), OBP (.293), and SLG (.337).

Fortunately for Chambliss—and unlike the Mariner clubs of 2008 and 2010—the Mariners are hovering near .500 (43-44) and sit just 3.5 games behind first-place Texas in the AL West.

Ironically, Chambliss seems to have the Mariner pitching staff to thank for his continued employment.

Doug Fister's 3-9 First-Half

By now, Mariner fans realize that Doug Fister has received some of the worst run support in baseball. He is averaging 2.51 runs of support per start. His two-and-a-half runs per game is even more remarkable, considering the Mariners scored 13 runs for Fister on April 19, inflating what his run support numbers should look like based on the other sixteen games he’s started.

In 2011, Doug Fister has accumulated a very good ERA of 3.02, though his 3-9 record wouldn’t indicate how well he’s pitched. Despite a complete-game, one-run performance last night from Fister, the Mariner offense notched just two hits and took the 0-1 loss against spot-starter Cory Luebke.

Fister’s story last night has become all too familiar to him. Last night was Fister’s third complete game this season. He has lost each of those three starts. Fister has tallied ten “quality starts” this season (a quality start being one in which a pitcher goes at least six innings and allows three runs or fewer). Of those ten quality starts, he’s earned a win in just two of them.

Of Fister’s 17 total starts this year, the Mariners have scored two runs or less in thirteen of those starts. Fister is 1-9 in those 13 starts, with a 3.21 ERA.

Doug Fister may not have the stuff of a staff ace, but there’s absolutely no way that he should be 3-9.

Warrior: Brendan Ryan

Brendan Ryan is the fundamentally-sound, gritty-type player the Mariners haven’t had enough of in recent years. He plays the game hard, giving 100% at all times. For these reasons, some may describe Ryan as a warrior. Others may characterize him that way because he’s an alum of the Lewis-Clark State College Warriors baseball program.

College baseball receives just a fraction of the attention of other men’s collegiate varsity sports. For that reason, many casual sports observers do not realize that one of the most successful programs in all of collegiate baseball plays in the Pacific Northwest. Lewiston’s Lewis-Clark State College—the home of the Warriors—has won sixteen NAIA World Series titles since 1984. They’ve finished runner-up in the NAIA World Series another five times. Needless to say, they are an NAIA powerhouse, and their teams are known for executing baseball’s basic fundamentals, and playing a with pride.

LCSC’s baseball program has sent over 140 players to play professionally, many making it to the MLB level. Some of the most notable alumni of the LCSC program include former MLB outfielder Marvin Benard (9 MLB seasons), relief pitcher Steve Reed (14 MLB seasons), and World Series champion closer Keith Foulke (11 MLB seasons). The program has even produced players who have gone on to play for the Mariners: Jason Ellison, Bucky Jacobsen, and Brendan Ryan.

The LCSC program developed its identity under longtime head coach, Ed Cheff, who managed the program from 1977-2010, accumulating 1705 career wins and a .799 career winning percentage (in addition to the 16 NAIA World Series titles). Cheff is legendary for his discipline and no-nonsense, tough-love approach with his players. Players play the Cheff way, or their experience in the program may likely be bumpy. In this video, some players talk about playing for Cheff. The energetic, fun-loving Ryan, though, felt like “a round peg in a square hole” playing for Cheff at LCSC.

Brendan Ryan played three seasons under Ed Cheff. He was a key contributor up the middle for the Warriors from 2001-2003, where he consistently batted well over .350, slugging over .500. His relationship with Cheff, however, was tumultuous, resulting in his dismissal from the team a total of four times. After the third dismissal, Ryan’s scholarship was revoked. Cheff described why Ryan was ultimately booted from the program for good during Ryan’s 2003 junior season: “a lot of irresponsibility — being on time and being a student athlete and not just an athlete.” Cheff added, “Sometimes he didn’t focus as much as I thought he could as a student. He’s a bright guy. At that point in his life, [school] wasn’t as important as it should have been.”

Ryan bounced back, being drafted in the 7th round by the Cardinals in 2003. He was a gifted player long before he arrived to play for Ed Cheff at Lewis-Clark State College, as he earned numerous accolades as a high-school player in Southern California. However, his tumultuous time as a LCSC Warrior under Cheff undoubtedly shaped his toughness, hard-nosed style of play, and attention to baseball’s fundamentals. In the end, Ryan says of his experience with Cheff: “I learned a lot about life. People ask me if I would do it again. It got me to the big leagues, so I guess I would do anything again if I knew it was gonna get me to the big leagues.”

Watching the Innings Add Up

After today’s win to take the series against the Phillies, the Mariners are two games over .500 and just a half-game out of first place. The Mariners have played the entire season, to this point, with just five starting pitchers. And, their rotation has anchored a pitching staff that boasts the second-best ERA in the American League.

Mariners starters have been so consistent in their ability to go deep into ballgames that Eric Wedge has had the luxury of going through the first third of the season with an extra bench player, as the team utilizes just a six-man bullpen (most teams carry a seven-man bullpen).

But, with Mariner starters being so important to a team sporting the worst run production in the American League, one has to wonder what the team will do in August or September with two key members of its rotation: Miachel Pineda and Erik Bedard.

Michael Pineda is a 22 year old rookie, who in 14 starts this season has logged a 2.64 ERA on his way to a 7-4 record. Those numbers are exceptional, but in those 14 starts he’s logged 88.2 innings. Pineda’s career high in innings for a single season is the 139.1 innings he worked in 2010 in the minor leagues. Many analysts believe the Mariners won’t have Pineda exceed 160-175 innings this season. Thus, through 14 starts, Pineda is already halfway through his innings allotment this season.

Starting pitchers typically make between 32 and 34 starts in a season. If Pineda has worked half his innings total through 14 starts, one has to expect he will max out his innings after 28-30 starts—assuming he continues to pitch on rotation. Looking ahead, this means the Mariners may shut him down by Labor Day. What if the Mariners are within two games come September? One has to expect that the Mariners would protect their long-term investment, rather than succumb to the temptation of having Pineda exceed his innings to stay in a potential playoff run—much like the eventual-NL Central-champion Reds did last August when they shut down their rookie right-hander starter, Mike Leake. But Michael Pineda isn’t the only member of the Mariners big three who may not be baffling opposing hitters come September.

Erik Bedard has made 13 starts this season, going 4-4 with a 3.16 ERA. Bedard has worked quality starts in seven of his last nine games, and in all, he has worked 77 innings in 2011. He looks fantastic, and it is great to have him back, healthy again.

There has been some speculation that Erik Bedard will be the Mariners best trade piece should the team go into “selling” mode at some point prior to the trade deadline. But, even if Bedard continues to roll through the months of June and July, will teams want to invest significant resources in a guy who hasn’t made more than 15 starts in a season since 2007, even if he stays healthy? If the Mariners keep Bedard, would it even be fair for the team expect him to be sharp down the stretch? He hasn’t pitched more than 83 innings in a season since 2007, and it seems a strong possibility that Bedard will face fatigue at some point down the stretch even if his body does hold up.

It is exciting to see the Mariners just a half-game out of first place in mid-June. It is fun to think about the team making the playoffs for the first time in a decade, matching up well in a short-series with a Felix-Bedard-Pineda rotation that matches up nicely against any front-end rotation in baseball. But, with the Mariners monitoring Michael Pineda’s innings, and with Bedard not having worked deep into a season in four years, one has to temper expectations.

Once one factors these considerations, the playoffs seem far more distant.

The Day the Mariners Replaced Ichiro with Chone Figgins

The Mariners will not start Ichiro in this evening’s game in Detroit. Ichiro has started every game the Mariners have played dating back to August 31, 2009, when the Mariners batted Franklin Gutierrez leadoff and played Bill Hall in right field. It breaks his streak of 255 consecutive starts.

Ichiro has been in something of a freefall the past few weeks. His average has fallen to .252, and he is just 13 for his last 87 (.149 over that span). He batted .210 in May, and in June he’s hitting just .132. Manager Eric Wedge had this to say about giving Ichiro a night off: “Ultimately, I’m the manager. I’ve got to do what I feel like is best for him and ballclub. I feel like this is the right thing.”

We’ve seen Ichiro struggle before, but in the past he’s snapped out of slumps within days. This current slump is now weeks long, and Eric Wedge has decided to give his 37-year old outfielder a physical and mental break. He did not even allow his future Hall-of-Famer to talk him out of giving him a night off. When Wedge met with the media this afternoon, he was asked how his conversation with Ichiro went about giving him a day off. Wedge responded, “Well, I didn’t ask him.”

Ichiro will be replaced in the leadoff spot by another hitter in the midst of a slump: Chone Figgins. Figgins is batting just .187 overall this season, including the most recent two-week span in which he’s hit just .111, with an on-base percentage of .179. Still though, Wedge has penciled Figgins in at the leadoff spot because Figgins has found success from that position in his past. Over his career, Figgins has started 643 games in the leadoff spot, and he’s hit .289 from that position in over 2500 at bats. Wedge also hopes the start will “kickstart” Figgins’ offense.

For his part, Figgins insists he’s felt better at the plate as of late. “I’ve been having some good at-bats. The last six or seven games, I’ve been hitting some balls good, walking a little bit.” His stats don’t necessarily reflect his feeling better, though. Over his last seven games, Figgins is batting just .188, with three singles in 16 at-bats, and two bases on balls.

We’ll see what happens tonight for Figgy against Detroit right-hander, Brad Penny, against whom Figgins owns a career .273 average (6x22), including one double. For what it’s worth, Ichiro owns a career .444 line (4x9) against Penny, with a double.

Carlos Peguero will be starting in right field tonight, and Ichiro is expected to be back in the starting lineup tomorrow.

Recalling Mike Carp

After yesterday’s uninspired loss to the White Sox, the second straight game in which the Mariner offense failed to show up altogether, the Mariners optioned rookie, Mike Wilson, to AAA Tacoma and recalled OF/1B/DH Mike Carp. Carp had been on fire in Tacoma, where his 0-1 night yesterday snapped a 21-game hitting streak. After starting this season relatively slowly, Carp has been on fire the past month or so.

He prepared for the 2011 campaign by shedding 25 pounds, in an effort to achieve greater mobility defensively and on the base-paths. As a result, Carp stole six bases in eight attempts for Tacoma this season prior to being recalled. But that’s not all. He’s been exceptional in the batter’s box.

In 57 games at AAA this year, Carp’s already blasted 19 homeruns and accumulated a .348 batting average. Just as impressive though, is Carp’s approach at the plate. His OBP this season in AAA was .409, as he’s walked 22 times. While Carp has been hot this season, his bat did not just come out of the woodwork. His career AAA numbers are promising: in 277 games, he’s hit .282 with a .363 OBP and .519 SLG. Carp is only 24 years old right now, his 25th birthday being later this month.

Carp’s defense has never been super impressive. He has spent the majority of his professional career playing first base. But, with Justin Smoak entrenched there for the near future, Carp has been forced to develop his defense elsewhere on the diamond. He’s played 96 games in corner outfield positions since his arrival in the Mariner system prior to the 2009 season, when he came over from the Mets system in the JJ Putz deal.

Carp has spent time with the Mariners each of the past two seasons, but he hasn’t played regularly enough at the MLB level to ever get into a rhythm at the plate. In 35 games and 106 career at-bats, he’s hit .264 with a .358 OBP and .374 SLG.

Look for Mike Carp to get at-bats in either left field or designated hitter. He may also spot Justin Smoak at first base on occasion, should Smoak need a day off.

Worst in the MLB: Outfield OPS

This morning, Fox Baseball reporter Ken Rosenthal listed the least productive outfields in the majors based on OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). The Mariners rank 30th in the MLB—dead last. It should not surprise anyone who has followed the team so far this season.

Here is what the Mariner outfield has done to this point in 2011. Through 55 games, Mariners outfielders have hit a collective .215, with a .281 OBP and .306 SLG. That adds up to a .587 OBP, as an outfield.

By far, the most productive offensive outfield position has been right field, where Ichiro has played the vast majority of games. Right fielders this season have hit .271, with a .327 OBP and .311 SLG, adding up to a .638 OPS.

The next best outfield position is centerfield, where Michael Saunders, Ryan Langerhans, and Franklin Gutierrez have shared the playing time. Centerfielders have combined to hit .189 this season, with a .265 OBP and .300 SLG, for a .565 OPS.

Left field has been least productive outfield position for the Mariners thus far. We’ve watched a carousel of players out there in left, from Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans, to Michael Saunders, to Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson. Left fielders have combined for a .177 AVG, with a .246 OBP, and a .306 SLG—enough for a .552 OBP.

To put these numbers in perspective, let’s look at some American League cumulative statistics. Throughout the American League, outfielders are batting .252 this season. Outfielders have achieved a .319 OBP and .401 SLG. The average AL OPS then is .721, over 130 points higher than the Mariner outfield.

If the Mariners are serious about contending in the AL West this season, the outfield will need to generate a much higher level of production. The team cannot afford to continue to spoil outstanding starting pitching performances in 2-1 losses and low-scoring shutouts.

When Playing the Game Hard Leads to Serious Injury

During the twelfth inning of last night’s Marlins-Giants game, Florida’s Emilio Bonifacio flied out to right-center field with one out and a runners on first and third base. The runner on third base, Scott Cousins, tagged up and attempted to score. As he raced to beat the ball to home plate, he collided with Giant’s catcher Buster Posey, who had not yet secured the baseball. Cousins scored what would be the winning run; but, Posey suffered severe injuries as a result of the collision. The full extent of the injuries may not yet be known, but signs seem to indicate that Posey suffered a broken bone in his ankle along with torn ligaments. Consequently, Posey will miss a substantial part of the season, if not the remainder of it.

Giant’s manager Bruce Bochy’s comments following the incident imply that he believes Cousins’ play was out of line with acceptable baseball standards. Bochy defended his catcher and implied that Cousins opted to force a cheap, violent collision rather than evade contact:

"He [Cousins] had two paths to go. There was home plate there, but he decided to go at Buster who was close to home plate. Is it a cheap shot? It depends on who you are talking to...He decided to go at Buster and try to knock it loose, that's what it looked like to me. But there was a lane for him."

"[Cousins] definitely had home plate to go for there. He didn't go out of his way, but he did decide to hit Buster and knock the play."

Others viewed the play from a different perspective. For example, Marlins’ manager Edwin Rodriguez had this to say:

“Posey was doing a great job. He was blocking the plate and the runner was doing his job trying to get to home plate. That was a hard, but clean play. He was doing his job. He was blocking the plate and the runner has no place to go but over him.”

Scott Cousins was the go-ahead run in the 12th inning, for a team trying to contend in a tough NL East. Based on the replays we can watch, yes, he had two options at the time: ram the catcher like he did on his way to the plate, or hook-slide to the backside of home plate. Both are legal, clean plays under the rules. In no way was Cousins' play a “cheap shot.” He has a right to home plate, and if a defender chooses to either stand in that line, or dive in front of it (as it almost appears Posey was attempting to do), that runner has the right to go through him. One can imagine that, when all is said and done, Bruce Bochy will reassess his initial thoughts and agree that Cousins’ play was clean, hard baseball.

Cousins had this to say about the collision:

“It’s a baseball play. That’s part of the risk of being a catcher. We’re trying to win games also. I’m not going to concede the out. Not in that situation. Not ever.”

“I’m on this team to help do the little things to help this team win the game. If that means going hard and force the issue on the bases, that’s what I’m going to do. I’m not conceding an out.”

“[I]t’s a baseball play. I feel bad for Buster Posey. I hope he’s OK. I really do. I’m going to send him a message over there to him.”

Last night’s incident occurred less than two months after Twins’ second-baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka suffered a broken fibula when Nick Swisher of the Yankees slid hard into second base to break up a double play.

Nishioka said of the play that sidelined his rookie season in Major League Baseball: “It’s a professional play by Swisher and he didn’t do anything bad.” Nishioka added, “Swisher didn't do anything that he needed to come over to apologize [for].”

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said this about Swisher’s slide at second base: “Just breaking up a double play. No issues there. [Nishioka] just got caught a little flat-footed and Swisher's a clean player and that's just a good baseball slide trying to break up a double play. There's no issue there.”

In baseball, a sport saturated with unwritten rules and unspoken gentlemen’s agreements, a fine line exists between good, clean hustle and dirty, cheap shots. Baseball is a sport where tradition allows for a pitcher to intentionally throw at a batter in some circumstances. In other situations, though, an intentionally-hit batsmen can lead to an on-field melee.

As baseball observers, we have the benefit of watching the replays of the Cousins-Posey collision in slow motion. We also have the luxury of hindsight. If we put ourselves in Scott Cousins’ shoes running full speed down the third-base line, as the play is unfolding in real time, we have a tougher time placing blame on him for what Bochy implied may have been a cheap shot. A play like that unfolds quickly, and players’ competitive juices shape their in-game reactions.

If Major League Baseball wants to do away with this type of contact—both at home plate with catchers and at second base, to protect middle infielders from base runners sliding hard to break up double plays—it must legislate a prohibition of this type of play in its rules. Currently, a custom exists in baseball for base runners to take out catchers while attempting to score. Scott Cousins simply practiced what has become popularized over baseball’s storied history. MLB’s best option for addressing this concern and eliminate these types of collisions is to attack it head-on with a rules change.

Should the Mariners Give Ichiro a Break?

Ichiro will turn 38 years old this year. Over his eleven-season MLB career, he has played in over 1600 games, never fewer than 146 in a season. In fact he has appeared in 157 games in each of his seasons but one. He continues to be able to do this year after year because he takes such great care of himself, and he keeps his body in remarkable physical condition.

Right now, though, Ichiro is mired in something of a slump. Since April 30th, his batting average has fallen 40 points; his on-base percentage, 36 points; his slugging percentage, 48 points. He has yet to hit a homerun this season, and he has not stolen a base in the month of May. When one combines that type of trail-off with the fact that he batted 24 points lower during the second half of last season than he did in the first half, or that in 2009, his second-half average fell off 22 points from the first half, one wonders if fatigue may be affecting his game.

He’s batting just .288 so far this season, with an OPS of .674. For the average MLB player, these numbers would be satisfying. But for Ichiro, and a Mariners organization that pays him 18 million dollars per season to be the team’s MVP, these numbers feel underwhelming.

Since the calendar turned to May, Ichiro has been slumping: he’s batted .222 with a .288 on-base percentage this month. History does show that Ichiro is a slow starter. In fact, over his career, April has been his least productive offensive month. But, May—even after factoring in this season’s May-long slump—has been his most productive month. Ichiro has batted .355 in the month of May over his MLB career!

In the so-called post-steroid era, players have not been aging as gracefully as they did a decade ago. With greater regularity, players in their mid-to-late thirties have struggled with diminishing levels of production. For example, we have watched former All-Stars Derrek Lee, Hideki Matsui, Magglio Ordonez, and Raul Ibanez all hit a wall this season. And, while Ichiro’s career has been healthier than these players, and while Ichiro plays a different kind of game than these guys, he is still human, and age will still affect his game at some point.

One suggestion would be to rest Ichiro a bit more regularly. If he were to have an extra day off every couple weeks, perhaps he would be fresher and more productive down the stretch in the second half of the season. This suggestion appears even more plausible now that the Mariners have a gaggle of outfielders available on their bench. The team could trot out Gutierrez in centerfield, with Peguero/Wilson/Saunders filling the corner spots.

However, resting Ichiro for even a handful of games this season would jeopardize his streak of consecutive 200-hit seasons. To date, he is on pace to collect 194 hits in 2011. If he were to rest just once every two weeks, he would miss nine games between now and the end of the season—probably losing between 35-50 at-bats. That would mean that he would have to collect his 200 hits in far fewer opportunities. Of course, perhaps given more rest, he would be more productive throughout the entire season.

Nobody expects Ichiro to bat .288 this season when all is said and done. Knowing him, at some point soon he will go on a tear and raise his average 25 points in a week. But still, despite the great condition in which he keeps his body, one cannot help but wonder if, at his age, allowing him a day off here and there would not be a bad idea over the long term.

Returning to Form: Erik Bedard

On April 20th Erik Bedard lost his fourth consecutive start to begin the 2011 season. He worked just five frames against the Tigers at Safeco Field, allowing three runs on five hits, walking five, making a wild pitch, and hitting a batter. He lacked command, throwing 95 pitches in his five innings, only 51 for strikes.

After the game, a reporter asked him if he was frustrated that he was not performing the same way he used to during his more dominant seasons. He responded, “I don’t know if it will ever be like it used to be, after three surgeries.”

To that point in the season, Bedard was 0-4, with a 7.71 ERA. He also led the American League with seven homeruns allowed. Since that time, however, he has been fantastic. In his four starts since starting 0-4, Erik Bedard has averaged over 6.2 innings per start, and has allowed just 1.33 earned runs per nine innings of work, picking up two wins along the way. Over his last four starts, he has not allowed a homerun.

Bedard appears healthy now for the first time in years, and we all hope he continues to be pain-free on the mound.

Unlike his first four games this seasons, his most recent four games have seen him attack the strike zone and work ahead of hitters with efficiency. Perhaps he finally believes he is over his recent injuries and has the confidence in his arm to pitch aggressively within in the strike zone, rather than nibble off the edges of the plate. One wonders if he lacked that confidence in April, when he doubted he’d ever be the type of pitcher who, in 2007, finished in the top-five in AL Cy Young voting. His recent injuries may have been sitting in the back of his mind, preventing him from daring hitters to beat him.

His season ERA is now down to 3.94, and baseball observers are taking notice of Bedard’s resurgence. Hall of Fame Baseball Writer Peter Gammons noted a report out of San Diego based on Bedard’s start last night: “Very good. Very good curveball. Best I’ve seen him in years.” Both Gammons and ESPN’s Buster Olney indicated that Erik Bedard, should he remain healthy, may become a valuable trading chip, should the Mariners look to sell prior to the trade deadline. Olney noted that the Mariners are “almost certainly in position to ask for a top prospect” in return for Bedard, but he also noted that teams interested in Bedard would need to convince themselves that he could find the same comfort zone on their team as he feels in the Mariner clubhouse.

Yet, before we begin to focus on the trading deadline, and potential suitors for Erik Bedard, we should remind ourselves that the season, is still relatively young, and somehow, despite the roller coaster that has been the first 44 games of the season, at 20-24, the Mariners—despite being the cellar dweller of the AL West—sit just 2.5 games back of the first-place Texas Rangers. Having a healthy Erik Bedard in a Mariner uniform will be key as this team moves forward with its remaining 2011 schedule.

Remembering Hammerin' Harmon Killebrew

The baseball world was saddened today to learn of the passing of Hall-of-Famer Harmon Killebrew, who succumbed to esophageal cancer at the age of 74.

Hammerin’ Harmon was signed initially by the Washington Senators in 1954, and played with that organization until 1974, following the team to Minnesota when it became the Twins before the 1961 season. He played one final season with the Kansas City Royals before retiring following the 1975 season.

Over his career, Killebrew—the 1969 MVP, 13-time All-Star, and 1984 Hall-of-Fame inductee—swatted 573 homeruns, notched 1584 RBIs, and accumulated a career slugging percentage of .509. He led the American League in homeruns six different times, RBIs three times, walks four times, and both slugging and on-base-percentage each one time. On the defensive side, Killebrew played extensively at both corner outfield and corner infield positions.

Harmon Killebrew did play a handful of games in the Pacific Northwest. During his 1969 MVP season, the Seattle Pilots hosted the Minnesota Twins for three series spanning nine games. Over those nine games in Seattle, Killebrew accumulated seven hits in 31 at-bats (.226), in addition to eight walks. He also muscled one homerun out of Sick’s Stadium.

The baseball community will miss Killebrew, known widely as a quiet, classy gentleman. This Sports Illustrated piece from April 8, 1963 offers insight into the man the author describes as “the man with the loudest bat and quietest mouth in baseball.”

Finally, to get an even better feel for Mr. Killebrew, check out these old Home Run Derby clips that demonstrate both his raw power and shy, quiet demeanor.

Pulling an Eduardo Perez

Tonight, during the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week, Andruw Jones, filling in at designated hitter while Jorge Posada sits, hit a homerun off Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester. ESPN Baseball Tonight host, Steve Berthiaume, soon thereafter tweeted: “Andruw Jones gets start against [a left-handed pitcher] and launches a HR. In baseball, that’s known as ‘pulling an Eduardo Perez.’”

Apparently, Perez had a reputation during his thirteen-year career for coming in and mashing lefties off the bench. Over his career, Perez batted .265 against lefties (.247 AVG overall), and hit 50 of his 79 career homeruns came off lefties. He slugged .501 against lefties over his career (.431 SLG overall). A .500+ slugging percentage is not too shabby.

But, as a Mariner fan, I guess I was unaware of Perez’s lofty production against southpaws. Many will remember that Perez came to Seattle to help the Mariners make a run at the playoffs in 2006. The Mariners sent Asdrubal Cabrera to Cleveland on June 30 of that season for Perez, who was brought over to platoon at DH against lefties. Then-GM Bill Bavasi had hoped that Perez’s .500 slugging percentage would translate into substantial production from the right side of the batter’s box. As a Cleveland Indian in 2006, Perez had batted .303 with a .636 slugging percentage. Things would change for Perez, though, once he donned the Mariner uniform.

Once Perez arrived in Seattle, however, his production trailed off—even against lefties. In 43 games as a Mariner, Perez batted just .200 off lefties (he hit even worse off righties, accumulating a dismal .182 AVG). He notched just one extra-base hit against lefties, slugging a meager .246 versus southpaws. Perez ultimately retired following the 2006 campaign after batting just .179 in the second half of the season.

So, Mariner fans, if you had a different understanding of the meaning of the phrase, “pulling an Eduardo Perez”, you are forgiven. Based on your fan experience, you had no idea it meant power/homeruns/slugging/production.

Will Opposing Managers Continue to Pitch to Justin Smoak?

Last Friday night, the Mariners were tied with the White Sox 1-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning, batting with two outs and a runner on second base. Justin Smoak, who had come into the game batting .315, was due up. Ozzie Guillen had starter Phil Humber pitch to Smoak with a base open, and Smoak laced a ground-rule double to left center, giving the Mariners the lead.

Fast forward to Tuesday night in Baltimore. The Mariners were down 4-5 in the top of the ninth inning against Baltimore closer, Kevin Gregg. There were two outs and a runner on third base when Justin Smoak came to bat. Buck Showalter had Gregg pitch to Smoak, who took a 1-1 pitch and served it into left field for an RBI single, tieing the ballgame.

In each of these recent pivotal at-bats, first base was open. And, on Friday’s game, Jack Cust was batting after Smoak in the lineup. Tuesday night, Miguel Olivo followed Smoak. Neither Cust nor Olivo poses the offensive threat Smoak does, as both Cust and Olivo have each experienced slow starts in 2011. Smoak, on the other hand, has emerged as the Mariners’ most significant offensive player.

So, why would Ozzie or Buck go after Smoak, instead of intentionally walking him and taking their chances with Cust or Olivo? Maybe, in Ozzie’s eyes, the sixth inning was too early to intentionally put another runner on base in a close game. Friday’s game was Smoak’s first against Humber. As far as Tuesday’s situation goes, Smoak was a career 0-1 against Kevin Gregg—hardly a body of work to demonstrate that Gregg had a fantastic track record against Smoak. In the ninth inning of a one-run game, there appears little reason why a manager would want to attack the opposing lineup’s best hitter with a base open.

In tonight’s game, had Smoak not been lifted in the tenth inning for pinch runner, Adam Kennedy, Buck Showalter would likely have pitched around him in the top of the 12th inning when his spot in the lineup came around, with one out and Ichiro on second base.

In the future, we will see managers pitch around Smoak in pivotal late-inning situations with a base open—at least as long as the batter “protecting” Smoak in the batting order continues to hover around in the .200-.220 batting average range.

Former Mariner Prospect Squares Off Against His Former Organization

Just prior to Spring Training in 2008, a 19-year old Mariner farmhand was traded to the Baltimore Orioles along with four other players, for Baltimore ace Erik Bedard. Tonight, that young farmhand, Chris Tillman, will go up against the organization that drafted him in the second round (49th overall) of the 2006 June Amateur Draft.

By the time the Mariners drafted Tillman out of high school five years ago, he had, as a junior, already been named the Horizon League Pitcher of the Year and a member of the AFLAC All-American Baseball Classic. Prior to his senior season, he was ranked as the top prospect in Southern California’s high school rankings and the 39th overall prospect in the 2006 draft by Baseball America. Upon signing with the Mariners, then-Mariner Vice President of Player Development and Scouting, Benny Looper, described their latest addition: “Chris is a tall, hard-throwing right-hander with a smooth delivery. We’re excited to have Chris join the Mariners organization.”

Prior to the 2007 season, Prospect Insider projected Tillman would reach the Major Leagues by 2010. It described him as possessing “Gil Meche” type stuff, with a Brett Myers ceiling.

Baltimore, salivating at the thought of adding a solid number two starter—in addition to an athletic everyday centerfielder in Adam Jones and proven left-handed reliever George Sherrill (and, of course, two other young pitching prospects)—was thrilled to add Tillman as the pitching centerpiece in the now-infamous six-player trade. One scout said of Tillman at the time of the trade: “He’s definitely the prize of the pitchers. Now that he’s found his fastball and curve, he has a chance to be a solid No. 2 or 3 on a good team. He’s 94-95 [mph] with a plus curve and a change.”

John Manuel, from Baseball America, also noted at the time: “Tillman is how you draw it up: good pro body, athletic, two pitches potentially above average. The Mariners were aggressive with him, and he responded pretty well—more than a strikeout an inning, and he pitched fearlessly at High Desert as an 18-year old.”

Tillman debuted for Baltimore on July 29, 2009, and he has not experienced smooth sailing pitching in the American League East. He’s yet to log a full season at the MLB level, but his body of work over the past three seasons does not jump out as impressive: in 29 career starts, he’s logged 146.1 innings, going 5-13 with a 5.90 ERA. So far this season, in six starts he’s gone 1-3 with a 7.16 ERA. It is worth nothing, though, that Tillman just turned twenty-three years old last month.

Tillman has not faced his former organization yet at the big-league level.

Following Black Monday, Michael Saunders Emerges as Full-Time Centerfielder

Today was Black Monday in the Mariners organization. Two veteran outfielders, Ryan Langerhans and Milton Bradley, were designated for assignment. They were replaced with a pair of rookies from Tacoma: Mike Wilson and Carlos Peguero. The arrival of Peguero and Wilson, paired with the departure of Langerhans and Bradley makes one thing clear: expect Michael Saunders to become the full-time Mariner centerfielder until Franklin Gutierrez returns from the disabled list.

Thus far in 2011, with Guti out, Saunders and Langerhans have shared centerfield. Of 35 games this season, Saunders has started 24 of them in centerfield, Langerhans has started the other 11. With Langerhans gone, Saunders will shoulder his workload. Today, Jack Zduriencik said he hopes to have Guti back with the Mariners in 7-10 days; but, they’ve been optimistic about his return to health for some time now, only to have Gutierrez experience one setback after another.

Why does Saunders become the everyday centerfielder? Mostly by default. Who else can play there? Ichiro played CF a few years ago, but that was then. Carlos Peguero, 24, at 6’5”, 245 pounds looks much more like a corner outfielder (or first-baseman) than centerfielder and over the course of his six-year minor league career has only played six games in center. Mike Wilson, 27, who stands 6’2” and 245, will be making his MLB debut when he appears in his first game. He’s a ten-year veteran of the Mariners organization, but to this point has never been with the big club. In his ten seasons in the minors, Wilson has played just sixteen total games in centerfield.

So, when it all shakes out, you’ve got two rookies, with a combined sixteen seasons (1059 games) of professional baseball under their belts and a total of just 22 games played in centerfield. Despite this, Zduriencik expressed today that, if Saunders needs a day to rest, Wilson will be comfortable enough to play centerfield.

The moves today solidify Saunders’ role for the ballclub, at least until Franklin Gutierrez comes back. But, at the same time, the Mariner brass cannot be all that thrilled with Saunders’ offensive numbers. His batting average is down to .170, and he has been hitless in his last seven games (24 at-bats). His on-base percentage isn’t much better, at .225; and, his slugging percentage is just .255. Saunders’ defense and base-running production hardly outweigh his offensive deficiencies, however.

Mike Wilson, over the course of his three seasons in AAA Tacoma has batted .255, with a .341 on-base percentage and a .463 slugging percentage. This season he’s absolutely blistered the baseball, going: .381/.429/.683 with four homeruns.

Peguero, too, has held his own this season: .282/.345/.456 with four homeruns. He earlier spent a short time with the Mariners when Justin Smoak went onto the bereavement list, notching two hits in eleven at-bats.

Peguero, a left-handed batter, will likely platoon with Wilson—a righty—in leftfield with Saunders in center until Gutierrez comes back, hopefully by Memorial Day. If Guti doesn’t come back so soon, and Saunders continues to spiral downward, Zduriencik may be forced to again alter the roster.

Still Going Strong

This weekend, an old friend returns to Seattle as a member of the White Sox. At age seventeen, in 1984, the Mariners signed him out of Venezuela, and five years later on April 3, 1989, he debuted in a Mariner uniform. He’s been in the big leagues ever since, and may one day end up in the Hall of Fame. He’s forty-four years old now, but White Sox utility infielder Omar Vizquel is still a productive major league player.

Little O spent the first five seasons of his long career in Seattle (1989-1993), where he quickly developed into one of the premier defensive shortstops in the American League. His final year in Seattle, 1993, he earned his first of eleven career Gold Gloves.

Many Mariner fans probably best remember Vizquel’s time in Seattle by the barehanded play he made on a chopper bounced over pitcher Chris Bosio’s head to throw out Boston’s Ernest Riles by two steps at first base for the 27th out in Bosio’s no-hitter at the Kingdome on April 22, 1993. Vizquel said of his dramatic barehanded play: "Even if I fielded it with my glove, it was an easy out. It was an out all the way." Right. Never a doubt.

Fans will also recall Vizquel from his time with Cleveland—the organization to whom the Mariners dealt Vizquel following the 1993 season, in exchange for Felix Fermin, Reggie Jefferson, and cash. In Cleveland Vizquel developed into a three-time All-Star. Fans most definitely remember what went down on August 25, 2001 between Vizquel and then-Mariner reliever Arthur Lee Rhodes. USA Today summarized the incident in this excerpt:

The game featured a confrontation in the ninth when Seattle reliever Arthur Rhodes was ejected by crew chief Tim McClelland in a heated argument over earrings. Apparently, Cleveland's Omar Vizquel asked to have Rhodes remove his earrings and Rhodes became infuriated.

"It may be the first and last time you see that," [Cleveland Bench Coach Grady] Little said. "But he wears those big earrings and with the sun where it was, there was a lot of glare coming from those and it was one of those things where most of the time no one says anything about it. But today it was bothering Omar so he said something about it."

"Today they really stood out," Vizquel said. "They were really shining today. I don't know why he acted the way he did. I think it's in the rules that you are not supposed to wear any jewelry. He didn't say anything to me. He started doing signs and stuff and started pointing at my head. He was pointing at me like he was going to hit me or something. That's when I reacted a little bit."

Rhodes offered his version of the incident. "Omar told me to take my earrings out," Rhodes said. "I told the umpire I have been pitching with my earrings on all year so why should I take them out. I had them on last year and this year. I was mad, because I didn't have to take them out in Cleveland. What's the difference? It's a nice day, the sun is out, everyone is having a good time. Being asked to take my earrings out made no sense.

"I never heard anything like that, a little scrawny hitter like him. (He's a) little midget. Why is he telling me to take my earrings out? When I face him again, I will go right at him."

McClelland provided his take. "Vizquel said that the sun angle at that time of day was reflecting off Rhodes' earrings and he asked if he would tell him to take them off," McClelland said of the situation. "When we asked him to take them out, he became irate and said he has been pitching with them all year and wasn't going to take them out.

"Arthur said he wasn't going to take them out and I told him either you have to take them out or you're out of the game. He kind of kept telling Vizquel to get in the box, they were yelling at each other and then both benches started yelling. ...To stop further incidents, I asked Arthur to leave. I told him to leave. I asked him take his earrings out and told him to leave."

Vizquel, now in his 23rd season at the MLB level, and with his fifth team, is still producing. Consider this: over the course of his 2861 career games played in Major League Baseball, Vizquel has accumulated a career batting average of .273. His batting average this season….273.

A Successful Road Trip

The Mariners return home tomorrow after a successful 5-1 road trip which saw the ballclub sweep the Tigers at Comerica Park and then take two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway. The most recent trip was their third road trip of the month-old 2011 season; and, it was their first winning road trip thus far.

Had a sun-ball not interfered with an otherwise routine fly ball to Ichiro in the bottom of the ninth inning yesterday afternoon, the Mariners may very well have swept the Red Sox and completed a perfect road trip. But, by all accounts, the recent six-game trip provided Mariner fans a sign of hope that the rest of the season may not be as painful as the first three weeks of the season.

A 5-1 road trip is something on which a team can hang its hat. Did the Mariners have a road trip as successful last season? No. In fact, they did not record a single winning road trip during the entire 2010 run. The Mariners split one trip, and came home with losing records on the remaining ten.

During the 2009 season, one in which the Mariners won 85 games, the M’s had three winning road trips—none of which was as notable as the team’s most recent 5-1 sojourn.

Going back even further, to 2008, the Mariners had two winning road trips, though coming home with nothing as impressive as a 5-1 record.

You’ve got to go back to 2007 to find a road trip in which the Mariners took five out of six games from their opponents. From August 7-12 of 2007, the Mariners swept a three-game set in Baltimore and then took two of three from the White Sox. Interestingly, the winning pitchers on that road trip came from the following starters: Jeff Weaver, King Felix, Horacio Ramirez, Miguel Batista, and Jeff Weaver (again). Jarrod Washburn picked up the only loss on the road trip, 3-5, in the series opener in Chicago, against Javier Vazquez.

Tomorrow, the Rangers will come to Safeco for a three-game set. The Rangers swept the Mariners in a three-game series down in Arlington the second series of the season when they were playing red hot, starting 6-0. But, the Rangers cooled after their 6-0 start, going 10-12 since that time. Injuries have plagued them as of late as well, so they come to Safeco not nearly as scary as they were when we went to Arlington in early last month.

Double-Digit Base Hits

The Mariners have won their last four games. They’ve combined timely hitting with solid starting pitching and sound defense to sweep three against the Tigers in Detroit and then take the series opener at Fenway Park tonight.

One of the more compelling offensive statistics from this road trip is that the Mariners, in each of their games in Detroit, notched double-digit base hits. On Tuesday, they had ten hits (10x36--.278); on Wednesday the offense had eleven (11x38--.289); and on Thursday, the offense had twelve (12x37--.324).

Coming into Tuesday’s series opener in Detroit, the team was batting .226. The Mariners left Detroit batting .235. The team’s on-base-percentage improved five percentage points (to .314) over the course of that series; and, the team slugging percentage improved twelve points (to .344).

Prior to this week’s series in Detroit, the 2011 Mariners had a total of five games with ten or more base hits (the Mariners were 3-2 in those games). On only one occasion last season did the Mariners string together three consecutive games with double-digit hits—May 30 through June 1. Contrast that offensive effort with that of the 116-win 2001 Mariners, a club that achieved double-digit base hits in at least three consecutive games twelve times, including separate streaks of eleven and eight games.

In Boston tonight, the Mariners’ double-digit base hit streak ended, as Dice-K and the Boston bullpen held the Mariners to seven hits (7x32--.219). But, the offense supplemented those base hits by working eight walks, including two apiece for Jack Cust and Michael Saunders. And, despite stranding 21 men on base, the Mariners scrapped together five runs, just enough to pull out the win 5-4.

The Mariner road trip continues tomorrow at Fenway Park against John Lackey, who has a career 13-9 record and 3.64 ERA in 175.2 innings against the Mariners. The Seattle offense will have its work cut out for it as it looks to start another double-digit hit streak.

Former Mariner Carl Everett Makes Headlines

On December 14, 2005, then-Mariners General Manager Bill Bavasi announced: “Today we achieved one of our offseason goals.” He had just signed veteran outfielder/DH Carl Everett to a one year, $3.4 million contract with a club option for 2007. Bavasi further stated, “Carl Everett is a clutch-hitting run producer with power. As a switch hitter, he provides our lineup with added versatility. Carl is a winner…His experience and intensity will be welcome additions to our clubhouse.”

Everett’s experience and intensity may have been welcome additions in December, but by July 2006, Everett’s on-field performance had worn out that welcome. The former two-time All Star batted just .227, with a .297 OBP and .360 SLG, including eleven homeruns and 33 RBIs. The Mariners sought more out of their designated hitter and went in a different direction. In June of 2006, the Mariners had sent Asdrubal Cabrera to Cleveland for Eduardo Perez, who Bavasi envisioned as a replacement candidate at DH, particularly against lefties. Then, the day after cutting Everett, Bavasi traded Mariner prospect Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians for Ben Broussard, who Bavasi could platoon with Perez against righties.

If signing free-agent Carl Everett was a metaphoric strike-one for Bavasi, trading Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez was surely strike two. Strike three was watching Shin-Soo Choo join the Indian organization in exchange for Ben Broussard. Of course, Everett never played another MLB game after being released by the Mariners. Perez’s skills diminished greatly after joining the Mariners: not only did he hit below .200 for the M’s in 2006, but he retired after the season. Broussard’s Mariner career was slightly more productive in 2006-2007, before he was traded to Texas after the 2007 season. He played less than thirty games for the Rangers in 2008 before being released, thereafter spending time in three other MLB organizations, though never reaching the MLB level again.

But back to Everett. He is back in the spotlight, five years after his last MLB at-bat. This time, though, he’s not making headlines for any on-the-field achievements, nor is he contesting the existence of dinosaurs or doubting the moon landing (assertions he made while an MLB player). Instead, Everett was arrested earlier this week after allegedly pointing a gun at his wife’s head and breaking two phones when she tried to call 911 for help. Everett was arrested Monday after the alleged incident took place, and was released today on a $5000 bail on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon and witness tampering. Hillsborough Circuit Judge Walter Heinrich, not surprisingly, ordered Everett to not have “violent contact” with the victim, his wife of eighteen years.

According to Everett’s attorney, since his retirement from professional baseball after being released by the Mariners, Everett, now 39 years old, has suffered from alcoholism and depression.

Could the Mariners Model Michael Pineda's Development After CC Sabathia's?

Michael Pineda, the 22 year-old ace-in-the-making, who has baffled opposing hitters in his first four Major League starts, averages 95.9 miles-per-hour on his fastball—the highest average fastball velocity in the MLB this season among starters. And, this past weekend the Mariner pitching coach, Carl Willis indicated that the team would monitor Pineda’s workload to keep him fresh and not burn him out by overworking him his rookie season. He said, “we’ll come up with a number [of innings that Pineda will pitch], maybe another month in.”

Last season, Pineda split his time between AA West Tennessee and AAA Tacoma, and he worked 139.1 innings before the Mariner organization opted to shut him down before the end of August. 2010 marked Pineda’s career high in innings pitched. His previous high had been 138.1 in 2008. In 2009 though, an elbow injury interrupted his season, and he worked just 47.1 innings.

Coincidentally, both the pitching coach, Carl Willis, and manager, Eric Wedge have experience dealing with young, 6’7”, 260 lb. starting pitchers. They managed CC Sabathia during his developmental years in Cleveland. At age 20 in 2001, two years before Wedge’s staff arrived in Cleveland, Sabathia earned a spot in the Indians’ rotation and made 33 starts, logging 180.1 innings. But, he didn’t just come out of the box tossing 180 innings a season. He worked up to that point. His 2000 season, split between A and AA, Sabathia pitched 146.1 innings. And, prior to 2000, his career high was 68.1 innings in 1999. When Wedge/Willis assume their roles in Cleveland in 2003, they were certainly aware of Sabathia’s successful development into a perennial Cy Young candidate. They may look to body type shared by Pineda and Sabathia as they decide how to bring along their young starter.

Sabathia’s history and development may serve as a point of reference for Pineda’s development. But, even while both men are young, big-bodied power arms, their individual circumstances differ enough that it may be unfair to expect 33 starts from Pineda in 2011, though 180 innings may be attainable. First, Pineda did suffer elbow issues just two seasons ago, which shut down his 2009 campaign, and the Mariners won’t want to risk another elbow injury which could further sideline his development. Sabathia didn’t suffer a severe injury like this. Second, the 2001 Cleveland Indians were the American League Central champions before being bounced in the ALDS by the Mariners; accordingly, they needed their rookie seventeen-game winner to help seal a division title (the Indians ultimately won their division by six games). The 2011 Mariners will be nowhere near the division race, so they will have no reason to max out Pineda. They will be looking to groom him for future postseason runs. Third, even though Sabathia made 33 starts, he averaged less than six innings per start to reach 180 innings. So, if Pineda were to average six innings per start, that would put him at 180 innings. He may then be shut down his final three or four starts.

Michael Pineda could work between 165-180 innings this season, a jump of between 25-40 innings from last year’s career high. That kind of effort this season would position him for a 200 inning season next year, if he can stay healthy. And, maybe in the near future, Pineda will—like Sabathia—be a staff workhorse and perennial Cy Young contender.