2011 Projected Rotation: Who Will Eat Innings?

Yesterday, on KJR 950 AM, Jack Z discussed the Mariners projected 2010 starting rotation, and he stated that he hoped it would align like this:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Michael Pineda

Given the personnel available to the franchise, I would agree that this looks like the best possible configuration for 2010. But, it does raise a concern worth noting.

Of this group, Felix Hernandez is the only proven innings-eater.

Yes, Jason Vargas did have a great 2010, a season in which he pitched 192.2 innings (just over 6 innings per start) with an overall ERA of 3.78. But, prior to this past season, he’d never logged more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, his numbers in the second half last year were significantly inferior to his first-half body of work: his first-half ERA was 3.09, in the second half it was 4.66. Additionally, his opposing batting average, OBP and SLG were all significantly higher in the second half. Certainly, this season the Mariners will be monitoring his body to see how it responds to his relatively heavy 2010 workload. While the Mariners undoubtedly hope Jason Vargas can offer the club close to 200 innings again this season, they’re also aware that his 190+ innings from last year may have a carry-over effect into this season. Don’t be surprised, then, if he suffers arm fatigue at some point this coming season.

Doug Fister, like Jason Vargas, had something of a break-out year this past season. He notched 171 innings in 28 starts—just over 6 innings a start. Yet, again, prior to last season, he had never gone more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, remember, last year, he went to the disabled list in early June with shoulder fatigue. His season statistics reflect his struggles as the season wore on. For example, in April his ERA was 1.67, in May it was 2.95. From June through September, he did not have a month with an ERA below 4.34. Prior to the All-Star Break, he held a 3.09 ERA, and post-Break it ballooned to 5.09. Despite only pitching two more innings after the Break, as opposed to before it, Fister gave up 39 more base-hits and 20 more earned runs post-break. He lost effectiveness as the year wore on, and it may have been the result of lingering arm fatigue. Again, the Mariners will be watching Fister this season, monitoring how his body reacts to another full season starting at the MLB level.

Erik Bedard, who the team would like to slot as the fourth starter, hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since August 2009, and he hasn’t had a season of over 100 innings since 2007. The Mariners won’t want to push his body too hard coming off multiple arm surgeries. So, one shouldn’t expect him to be an innings-eater in the Mariner 2010 rotation.

Michael Pineda, who Jack Z hopes will emerge as the fifth starter in the rotation, has never thrown a pitch at the MLB level. He’s also never thrown more than 140 innings at any level in a single season. Again, the Mariners will act with great caution in monitoring his innings and his pitch counts to do all they can to prevent any arm troubles with their highly-touted prospect.

When starters can’t work deep into ballgames, or when they can’t make each of their scheduled starts, the remaining members of the pitching staff—in particular, the relief corps—pick up the slack. Last year, near the All-Star Break, Wakamatsu expressed concern as to how frequently he was going to Brandon League in the bullpen. League appeared in 41 games before the Break, before the Mariners scaled back his workload. By season’s end, League still made more appearances (70) and logged more innings (79) than any other season in his career.

This year would be no different. If Vargas/Fister/Bedard/Pineda can’t consistently work 6+ innings in ballgames, the bullpen will need to find ways to fill those final three innings. These innings will add up quickly, and with Shawn Kelley coming off arm surgery and young relievers like Dan Cortes filling out the bullpen, the Mariners will take great care to prevent further injury and major arm fatigue. Surely, in a rebuilding season like the one we expect in 2011, the team’s number one priority will be to do all it can to prevent the overworking of its young pitching staff.

Selling Seattle on Jack Cust

Today, the Mariners announced the acquisition of Jack Cust. They expect him to be the full-time DH. This likely means that the Mariners will not pursue Russell Branyan; presumably, the Mariners project Justin Smoak playing first-base, so Branyan will likely need to find work elsewhere. So now that the Mariners have essentially opted for Cust over Branyan, has our offense improved?

Over his time the past two seasons with the Mariners, Russell Branyan has consistently hit for power (46 HR; .508 SLG), and last year his OPS was the highest on the team (technically, tied with Mike Sweeney for the highest OPS, .802). Also, last year, he was, by far, the most significant Mariner power threat. He led the team with 15 HRs, despite starting the season in Cleveland and appearing in only 57 games with the Mariners.

Cust is a very similar hitter to Branyan. Yes, he strikes out a ton—so be patient. He led the AL in strikeouts three straight seasons (07-09), and yes he struck out in over a third of his at bats last season. He did, however, still bat .272 last season, with an OPS that would have been tops on the Mariners (.834). Cust is known as an all-or-nothing guy. While he will swing and miss, he will also walk a lot and hit a few into the seats. He has worked over 100 walks two different seasons (Figgins led the Mariners with 74 BBs last year) and maintains a career OBP of .378 (Cust would have led the Mariners last season as well when his OBP was .395. And, to add some perspective, Ichiro had a career OBP of .376).

For a team without a ton of financial wiggle-room, Cust comes at a relative bargain. He will earn $2.5 million this season. Branyan earned $1.5 last year, and would probably be seeking something higher this year, coming off another 25+ HR season. But, unlike Branyan, Cust does not have Branyan’s chronic back problems. Cust has never been placed on the DL, and he is three years younger than Russell, which may have factored into Jack Z’s considerations. Cust also logged just over 100 innings (105.1) in the outfield last year (13 games in LF, 3 in RF), committing one error. So, if Eric Wedge decides to, he may place Cust into the outfield and know he can keep Cust’s bat in the lineup during interleague play, or when he wants to find at-bats for other hitters at DH.

Finally, while Cust’s homerun totals may not rival Branyan’s (Cust hit just 13 last year), Cust did hit 25 or more HRs in three of the last four seasons. He bats left-handed, so Safeco Field shouldn’t significantly impact his offensive power production (in just over 90 career ABs at Safeco, Cust has 5 HRs) the way it sometimes does righties. Other than the Oakland Coliseum, Cust has played more games at Safeco (31) than any other ballpark. He owns a career .237 AVG, .359 OBP, and .423 SLG in those 117 plate appearances at Safeco. Moreover, one can expect his Safeco splits to improve as he becomes more comfortable hitting in the ballpark with greater regularity.

One thing to watch as Cust becomes the everyday DH is how well he hits lefties. His career offensive numbers against southpaws, like most left-handed hitters, are less impressive than his overall numbers (.225 AVG; .350 OBP; .372 SLG), though even his numbers versus lefties are still better than many Mariner hitters.

Ultimately, while the Jack Cust signing does not exactly trigger fanfare along Edgar Martinez Drive or a mad rush to the season ticket office, his acquisition does appear to improve the Mariner offense. No, it won’t improve the offense the way Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford would have; but, those guys cost far greater than Cust and the Mariners are rebuilding. Cust offers a low-cost alternative that may still pay significant dividends for a team that must find some way to get guys across the plate in 2011.

Comparing Mariner Cy Young Winners

After the MLB players’ strike ended in 1995, Randy Johnson won 18 games, hoisting the Mariners on his back, and leading the franchise to its first playoff appearance. He also received the first Cy Young award in Mariner history. This season, despite a dismal team effort, Felix Hernandez strung together an impressive season of his own, deservedly earning the second Cy Young award in Mariner history.

It has been fifteen years since the Big Unit won his Cy Young, so I went back to look at the numbers he put up that season in order to compare them to Felix’s numbers this year. Did one pitcher have a statistically-superior season?

Here are some of the core numbers to compare their Cy Young credentials:

Randy Johnson (1995): 18-2; 2.48 ERA; 214 IP in 30 starts; 6 CG; 3 Shutouts; 294 K; 1.045 WHIP; 6.7 H/9IP; 12.3 K/9IP; 4.52 K/BB ratio.

Felix Hernandez (2010): 13-12; 2.27 ERA; 249.2 IP in 34 starts; 6 CG; 1 Shutout; 232 K; 1.057 WHIP; 7.0 H/9IP; 8.4 K/9; 3.31 K/BB ratio.

With the exception of their winning percentage, which can be attributed to their offenses, their numbers are very similar. They both threw 6 complete games, and each led his league in ERA. Felix’s ERA was lower than the Unit’s, and Felix led his league in IP. Unit, however, did lead the AL in Ks, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9IP.

So, ultimately, had Randy Johnson put up his 1995 numbers in 2010, one may fairly argue that the Unit would have topped Felix in the Cy Young race. That being said, one cannot overstate what Felix did for a team that lost 101 games. Despite having no hopes of postseason play, he continued to post dominant numbers the entire season. Randy Johnson had something extra to play for—a playoff push.

Also, for what it is worth, one may weigh the fact that Unit pitched his home games in the band-box that was the Kingdome, while Felix enjoyed the more pitcher-friendly dimensions at Safeco Field.

Both Randy Johnson and Felix Hernandez, during their Cy Young years, put together exceptional seasons on the mound, and both were deserving of their Cy Young awards. While Randy Johnson played among a handful of Mariner legends in 1995, Felix was a one-man show this past year. And while there was not much on which Mariner fans could hang their hats this year, King Felix’s incredible season gave us reason to watch baseball in August and September.

The Big Unit should be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and the fact that Felix draws comparisons with him only offers credence to the high ceiling he still maintains. Remember, Felix is still only 24 years old and may have many more Cy Young awards in his future. At 24, the Unit was just breaking into the MLB in Montreal, trying to harness his delivery and find his mechanics.

Three Memorable Calls Courtesy of our Hall-of-Famer, Dave Niehaus

Many of us never met him. But, for years, each night we invited him into our home to share our baseball experience. He rode with us in our cars, keeping us company. He attended family barbecues on warm summer nights. And, last night as each of us heard of his passing, we all felt as though we lost a dear friend.

Dave Niehaus, the voice of the Seattle Mariners since the franchise’s inception, a man who broadcast over 5000 games and was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2008, passed away yesterday after suffering a heart attack.

He is known for having made so many memorable calls. His calls have become household clichés all over the Pacific Northwest. Mariner fans celebrate a “Grand Salami,” or watch fly-balls “Fly Away” over the outfield fence. Some of us express our satisfaction after a great play with a simple “My Oh My.” When I think of Dave Niehaus’ great, poetic calls, three specific calls stand out to me.

1. The Double (10/8/1995)—probably Niehaus’ most popular call, “The Double” was the capstone of the great 1995 playoff run. It was Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, at the Kingdome, in front of 57,411 rabid Mariner fans. The Yankees sent David Cone to the mound to take on Andy Benes. The Mariners scored two runs in the 8th inning to even the score 4-4. In the top of the 9th inning, Norm Charlton, who had taken over with 2 outs in the 7th, was still on the mound for the Mariners. He gave up a double and a walk to begin the inning, and Lou Piniella decided to bring in Randy Johnson out of the bullpen. The Big Unit wiggled out of the jam in the top of the 9th without allowing a run. Neither team was able to score in the 9th or the 10th. So, the game went to the 11th, where the Unit issued a leadoff walk that ultimately came around to score after a sacrifice bunt and a single. The Mariners were down 4-5, and their hopes to continue their playoff run required yet another come-from-behind win, this time against Jack McDowell. Leading off the bottom of the 11th, Joey Cora singled on a bunt to first base. Ken Griffey, Jr. singled to centerfield, advancing Cora to third. Edgar Martinez came to the plate, and on an 0-1 pitch, Niehaus made the most memorable call in Mariner history:

Right now, the Mariners looking for the tie. They would take a fly ball, they would love a base hit into the gap and they could win it with Junior's speed. The stretch... and the 0-1 pitch on the way to Edgar Martínez swung on and LINED DOWN THE LEFT FIELD LINE FOR A BASE HIT! HERE COMES JOEY, HERE IS JUNIOR TO THIRD BASE, THEY'RE GOING TO WAVE HIM IN! THE THROW TO THE PLATE WILL BE ... LATE! THE MARINERS ARE GOING TO PLAY FOR THE AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP! I DON'T BELIEVE IT! IT JUST CONTINUES! MY, OH MY!

2. Playoff-Bound (10/2/1995)—It took the Mariners 15 seasons to finally achieve a winning record. In 1995, the Mariners had been 13 games back of the California Angels as late as August 2. But, from that point on, the Mariners went on a 35-20 run to force a 1-game playoff with the Angels on Monday, October 2 at the Kingdome. This game featured former Mariner Mark Langston, squaring off against the player for whom he was once traded, Randy Johnson. Luis Sojo cue-balled a bases-clearing double down the first-base line (that the Angels ultimately played into an inside-the-park Grand Salami), and a complete game, 3-hitter, 1-run effort by the Big Unit secured a 9-1 Mariner victory. Dave Niehaus captured the excitement as only he could, when the Big Unit finally clinched the game—and the team’s first playoff appearance—by striking out Tim Salmon for the fourth time, on his 125th pitch:

Now the left hander ready. Branding Iron hot, the 1-2 pitch....K inserted, it's over! Right over the heart of the plate! Randy looks to the skies that is covered by the dome and bedlam! As the Mariners now erupt! Nineteen long years of frustration are over!

3. Old-Time Religion (6/19/2009)—The Mariners hosted the Arizona Diamondbacks for an interleague series at Safeco Field. And, on Brandon Morrow Bobblehead Night, Jon Garland owned the Mariners. He pitched seven shutout innings before giving way to the bullpen in the 8th. Endy Chavez started the game in leftfield for the Mariners; but, as he chased after a Felipe Lopez popup in short left, he collided with shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, and was forced to leave the game due to an injury (Chavez hasn’t appeared in an MLB game since). Wladimir Balentien replaced Chavez in leftfield. Going into the bottom of the 8th inning, the Mariners were down 0-3. Garland was lifted for lefty Scott Schoeneweis, and Russell Branyon led off the inning with a solo homerun to put the Mariners on the board. Tony Pena then replaced Schoeneweis, and Adrian Beltre immediately singled to left. After Mike Sweeney struck out swinging and Franklin Gutierrez flew out to centerfield, Balentien’s spot in the lineup was due up to bat. Don Wakamatsu went to his bench to call on an aging slugger, Ken Griffey, Jr., looking for some magic. Even at this late stage in his career, Dave Niehaus’ radio call was superb:

The fans are hoping to catch a little bit of old-time religion right here, baby, with Junior stepping up to the plate. Here comes the stretch and the pitch to Junior is on the way. Swing and a fly ball hit to deep right-center field! That baby is going to beeeeeeeee — FLY AWAY! THE OLD TIME RELIGION LIVES! JUNIOR DOES IT! A two-run home run and we are tied at 3-3. My oh my! Magic is back at least for a night.

These three calls are my most favorite. I remember exactly where I was when I first heard each of them. Even today, thanks to Dave Niehaus, most fans will recall where they were when Edgar hit “The Double.” So many other great calls haven’t been transcribed on the internet, and many did not even describe crucial plays. For example, on July 20, 2004 with the Mariners down by two in the bottom of the 9th inning, Bucky Jacobsen stepped into the box. It was just Jacobsen’s 5th game, but he’d already become a fan favorite after hitting two homeruns in his first week with the team. Keith Foulke was on the mound, looking to close out the game for the Red Sox. With 2 away, and Bucky as the Mariner’s last chance, Niehaus began intertwining the “Mighty Casey at the Bat” poem into his call, comparing Bucky to the Mighty Casey. Jacobsen struck out to end the game; but, the call was one only Niehaus could make.

He was a one of a kind. And, he is already missed. Thank you, Dave, for all the joy.

A Blast from the Past: Justin Leone

Last weekend, Saint Martin’s University held its annual alumni baseball games on its campus in Lacey, Washington. The University’s current roster of players hosted a team comprised of alumni for a pair of seven-inning games. This year, the game featured the Saint Martin’s baseball program’s most well-known Saint, Justin Leone. Leone made the highlight reel when, with a wood bat, he clobbered a homerun beyond the cavernous left-field alley, over the fence for the only homerun of the day, and one of the few hits notched by the alumni team.

Mariner fans may remember Leone from his run with the team in the summer of 2004.

Leone was drafted by the Mariners in the 13th round of the 1999 amateur draft after attending Saint Martin’s College (now University). He worked his way through the Mariner farm system, playing in Everett, Wisconsin, San Bernardino, San Antonio, and Tacoma as an infielder, predominantly at third base. In the minor leagues, Leone consistently posted promising offensive numbers that indicated he’d someday appear at the MLB level.

In 2003 Leone earned recognition for his play with AA San Antonio. In 135 games, he hit a .288 AVG, with a .405 OBP, 21 HRs, and a .541 SLG. His effort earned him the title Texas League Player of the Year, as determined by Baseball America. He was also selected as the Texas League Player of the Year by Topps. Finally, the Mariners named him their Minor League Player of the Year as well. Seemingly, he was on the verge of joining the big club.

He began the 2004 campaign with the AAA Tacoma Rainiers, but was promoted to the Mariners when Miguel Olivo was sent to the disabled list with kidney stone issues. On July 2, Leone made his major league debut in Saint Louis, pinch hitting in the top of the third inning for Jamie Moyer against Woody Williams. Two days later, he made his first start at shortstop. Then, from July 8 through August 17, he served as the regular third basemen, as Scott Spiezio moved across the diamond to play first base. But unfortunately, on August 17, against the Royals, Leone was hit by a Matt Kinney pitch, and was forced to leave the game prior to his next at-bat. X-rays taken that night revealed broken bones in his left hand. Leone was placed on the disabled list, and never appeared in another game in a Mariner uniform.

He spent the 2005 season with the Rainiers, and in October of that year was granted free agency. In 2006, he was in the Padres system, and appeared in one game at the big-league level. It was Leone’s last appearance in an MLB game. Since then, he spent time in the Giants, Yankees, and Rangers systems before being granted his free agency again at the conclusion of the 2009 season.

For his career, in 32 games, Leone hit .214, with 6 HRs (including a bomb off Cliff Lee), 13 RBI, and an OPS of .733. And, while his big-league career may very well be over, he will undoubtedly be welcomed at every future Saint Martin’s University alumni game to have fun and share his experience and knowledge of the game with players at his alma mater.

101 Losses: A Familiar Feeling

We can’t say that it was a total surprise. Just two weeks into the season, back in mid-April, many fans had already begun to feel as though the 2010 Mariners may mirror the 2008 Mariners. We were right, and we were wrong.

Here is a piece I wrote back then that drew some uneasy connections and similarities between the teams. When I wrote it, I remember still thinking that, even in a worst case scenario, the team couldn’t be nearly as bad as the 2008 team. Maybe the 2010 Mariners would lose 90 games; but 101? Never. Jack Z was not Bill Bavasi, and surely we were better than a team that trotted out guys like Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Silva, Jeremy Reed, and Kenji Johjima on a regular basis.

Boy, were we wrong. The 2010 Mariners were last in the AL in these offensive categories: runs (513), hits (1274), doubles (227), triples (14), homeruns (101), batting average (.236), on-base-percentage (.298), slugging (.339), (as naturally would follow) OPS (.637), and total bases (1836). On top of that, we were second to last in bases on balls (459). Not exactly an offensive recipe for success.

The 2008 team was last in none of those categories. They scored 671 runs (+158), hit .265 (+.029), homered 124 times (+23), slugged .389 (+.050), and were on base at a .318 clip (+.020). They were better in every offensive category.

The only thing that saved the 2010 Mariners—one of the historically-worst offenses of the DH era—was their pitching, which had the fourth-best ERA in the AL (3.95). Had Felix Hernandez not given 30 quality starts (in 34 chances), had Jason Vargas not contributed 21 (of 31) in a breakout season, and had we not had the luxury of watching Cliff Lee throw just over 100 innings in a Mariner uniform, we would have been staring at 110 losses.

We are all anxious to see what Jack Z will do this winter. The buzz from last winter’s acquisitions—trading for Milton Bradley, Brandon League, and Cliff Lee; and signing Chone Figgins—made the Mariners contenders in the eyes of some. It didn’t work out.

Looking ahead to 2011, the Mariners will undoubtedly win more ballgames. Mathematically, it will be difficult for them to fare worse. But one can be sure, with a new manager, and roster teeming with youth, there won’t be the same buzz. The Mariners won’t be a trendy pick for the AL West pennant come Opening Day, and that may not be a bad thing.

“Believe Big”: Who Are The Ad Wizards Who Came Up With That One?

This year, prior to the season beginning, the Mariners marketing team told us to “Believe Big.” That catchphrase was pasted all over posters at the ballpark, on buses, over radio airwaves, and on the Mariner television commercials. We have seen how the team has horribly failed to live up to any of these expectations.

The high expectations, resulting underachievement, and general poor performance of the team this season has resulted in the “retirement” of the greatest Seattle sports icon in Junior, we’ve seen the termination of the guy many had pegged as AL Manager of the Year in 2009 in Don Wakamatsu, we watched batting coaches, pitching coaches, bench coaches, and development guys all get axed. Would they have been fired had the Mariners not believed big, but instead set their expectations lower? Maybe their slogan should have been something like “Mariner Baseball: Let’s win 40% of our Games.” They’d then be within striking distance of their goal now. Maybe Rick Adair would still be making the trip to the mound to tell Doug Fister to work down in the zone.

Interestingly, on the other hand, the professional sports team that plays its home guys across the street at Qwest Field, the Seahawks, did not appear to set their expectations quite so high, despite the fact that the NFC West is really for anyone’s taking. The Seahawks went with “Earn Everything.” What a great slogan. While the Mariners have had to strip “Believe Big” from their webpage and hide from it after totally flopping this season, the Seahawks mantra of “Earn Everything” will be just as relevant if the team goes 1-15, or 15-1.

“Earn Everything” is not only a great marketing slogan. It’s a credo by which every player in professional athletics should live. For example, I wonder, at times, why some players have continued opportunities at playing time, while seemingly doing very little to “earn” their spot on the field. Is Jose Lopez earning everything at this point? Perhaps it is his sterling batting average (.232) or outstanding OPS (.580) that forces the manager to keep his hot bat in the lineup. I’m not going to pile on. I’d just like to see Mariners players earn everything.

But then again, hindsight is 20/20. Why shouldn’t we have believed big, with free agents like Junior, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman brought back to play our power positions. And, after all, it was only a slogan.

I’ll be anxious to see what the team unveils in 2011. Here are some suggestions: “Mariner Baseball: Come Watch King Felix” or “Mariner Baseball: What Hat will Dave Sims Wear Tonight?” These slogans will be just as usable Opening Day as they will be the first week in October.

A Premium Series

Apparently, Fan Appreciation Day does not come early to those of us who still consider ourselves Mariner fans.

This week, I was interested in taking in a Mariner game, something I have not done since the Mariners played in Anaheim back in July. I walked up to the Safeco Field ticket window and quickly noticed a sign on the window. It read (something like) “Today’s ticket special is—Premium Game.” I asked the ticket window attendant to tell me more about the ticket special and she responded that she was not sure why the Mariners call it a ticket special because a “premium” game ticket, simply put, is a $5 charge ADDED to the regular ticket price.

I had hoped to buy a centerfield bleacher seat, a ticket for which I was expecting to pay $8. To my amazement, because I wanted to attend a “premium” game, that same ticket was $13—over a 62% markup.

The Mariners chose to market their three games against the Boston Red Sox as “premium” games. “Premium” could take on a couple different meanings. “Premium,” in one context, can mean having or reflecting superior quality or value. This of course, cannot be the correct definition respecting the Mariners because, clearly, the ballclub fails to embody a superior quality. They now have the worst record in the American League, they’re firing personnel left and right, and they’ve been eliminated from any playoff contention. Their opponents this series have been decimated by injuries and sit third place in their division, well outside the playoff hunt. The series was riddled with the Mariners’ usual baserunning blunders, costly fielding errors, and generally poor offense.

The other context that could capture the spirit of “premium” means the amount that something in scarce supply is valued above its nominal value. Maybe so many people wanted to come to Safeco Field this week to watch their beloved Mariners that tickets were tough to find. Ummm…that was not it either. Safeco Field holds 47,116 fans for baseball. The attendance for the three game series, however, was 19,063; 18,381; and 21,936—not even half the capacity of the ballpark. Obviously, tickets were not in scarce supply. Proof of the abundance of tickets flooding the market lies in the secondary market, where tickets were being sold significantly below face value. Some fans were able to attend games this series for as little as $5 a game, utilizing this secondary market.

I understand that there may be times when a Red Sox series would be a premium ticket—perhaps a July weekend series when either team is in a position to make a playoff push. But in September 2010, not too many fans are interested in a rainy midweek series, featuring a hapless Mariner ballclub and Red Sox team without Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Cameron, and J.D. Drew.

Again, don’t be confused Mariner fans. Fan Appreciation Day is October 1. Until then, expect the Seattle Mariners to make every effort to squeeze as much money from their fan base as possible, despite the horrible lineup they continue to trot onto the field. Believe Big.

Labor Day Special: Honoring the MLBPA

To celebrate Labor Day week, and what organized labor means to America, we want to celebrate and honor arguably the most powerful and influential union in all of professional sports, the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA). Most fans know that the players union exists, but many do not really know how important the MLBPA has been for the sport—and how it has shaped the way the game operates today.

The MLBPA was created in 1953, and under the early leadership of Marvin Miller, who prior to joining the MLBPA in 1966 worked for the United Steel Workers of America, the union quickly became a key player in the operation of the MLB. Marvin Miller negotiated the first collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the players and team owners in 1968. The agreement raised the minimum player salary from $6000 to $10000 per season. By 1970, the CBA allowed players, for the first time, to go through arbitration to resolve contract disputes. By 1972, the players engaged in their first strike, when owners failed to increase player pension funds.

Under the influential hand of Marvin Miller, the MLBPA witnessed increases in player salaries, pension funds, and licensing rights and revenues. And, in 1975, the modern free agency system was born, allowing players to take their services to whatever team they could forge a deal. In 1981, another player strike occurred when players and owners failed to come together over free agent compensation. Notably, the MLBPA and MLB saw the creation of the designated hitter under the Miller administration as well.

In 1983, Donald Fehr took the reigns as the Executive Director of the MLBPA, and one of the most well-known MLBPA-related actions in the past twenty years was the player strike in 1994-1995. The friction between the owners and players resulted from the MLBPA’s lingering distrust of MLB owners dating back to the 1980s when owners were colluding against potential free agents. Ultimately, owners paid roughly $280 million in fines to players, as penalty for rigging the signing of free agents; and, Fehr’s trust in MLB owners was never really restored. So, in 1994, when owners sought a salary cap agreement and a revenue-sharing scheme tied to the salary cap, along with the elimination of salary arbitration, the MLBPA refused the proposal. The MLBPA felt the salary cap was intended to improve disparity between the teams without benefitting the players in any meaningful way.

The previous CBA had expired in 1993, and into the early summer of 1994, negotiations between the MLBPA and owners were heating up. In June, the owners decided to withhold $7.8 million to the players pension fund. This did not go over well with the MLBPA. In July, the MLBPA set August 12 as their strike date, in anticipation of the work stoppage. The MLBPA walked off as scheduled, and on August 31, federal mediators attempted to resolve the conflict after hours of negotiations; but, the sides failed to reach an agreement in time to save the 1994 World Series. The strike finally ended on March 31, 1995, when a federal judge supported the National Labor Relations Board complaint against the owners; then, the Second Circuit affirmed the district court’s decision, paving the way for the resumption of major league baseball. As a result the 1995 season started later than usual and was shortened to 144 games.

More recently, the MLBPA initially opposed random steroid testing because the union believed it violated the privacy rights of players. But, after a public outcry for greater steroid testing, the MLBPA warmed to the idea of a stricter drug-testing policy. In 2005, the MLBPA agreed to the current policy, which allows for random testing, and potential 50-game, 100-game, and lifetime suspensions for positive tests.

There has not been a work stoppage since the infamous 1994-1995 strike.

A few more interesting facts, courtesy of the MLBPA: the current CBA is slated to expire on December 31, 2011; the MLBPA requires its members to pay dues of $50 per day for membership during the season; in 2009, the average MLB player salary was just under three million dollars ($2,996,106); the MLB minimum salary in 2009 was $400,000; finally, players with six or more seasons of MLB service, who have not executed a contract for the next season may file for free agency.

For more information on the MLBPA, check out their website at www.mlbplayers.com.

Playoff Experience

As the calendar turns to September, MLB teams may expand their rosters to include up to 40 players. The Mariners, however, will wait to expand their roster, as the players most likely to be called to the big club are currently with the Tacoma Rainiers and are poised to win their division in the Pacific Coast League and enter the playoffs later this month.

Mariner (and former Rainier) manager Darren Brown explains that the Mariners will wait to recall their AAA players until the conclusion of the playoffs, as he believes playing in the AAA playoffs is a valuable experience that will ultimately help the Mariners in the long run.

But, playoff experience, after all, is something the current active Mariner roster lacks. Only a handful of players have appeared in the MLB playoffs:

Ichiro: 2001; 2 series; 10 games; 43 PAs; reached CS.
Chone Figgins: 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009; 10 series; 35 games; 135 PAs; won WS.
Casey Kotchman: 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009; 5 series; 11 games; 19 PAs; reached CS.
Russell Branyan: 2001, 2006; 2 series; 6 games; 17 PAs; reached DS.
Josh Bard: 2006; 1 series; 3 games; 9 PAs; reached DS.
Ryan Langerhans: 2005; 1 series; 4 games; 16 PAs; reached DS.
Franklin Gutierrez: 2007; 2 series; 10 games; 34 PAs; reaches CS.
Chris Woodward: 2006; 1 series; 1 game; 1 PA; reached DS.

Of all the players on the active roster right now, only eight have ever experienced the MLB playoff atmosphere. And, in addition to that, only a couple current Mariners have a substantial body of playoff work under their belts.

So, when Darren Brown says the members of the Rainiers will benefit from participating in the AAA playoffs, certainly these Rainier players—future Mariners—will have the rare opportunity to hit and pitch in a playoff atmosphere. And, while these players would likely benefit from having the chance to play at the MLB level, even after playing in the AAA playoffs, they will still have a couple weeks to get their feet wet with the Mariners. The decision to have them play through the playoffs and then join the Mariners is a win-win for these players, who have earned the opportunity to participate in their playoffs.

Jose Lopez in 2010: A Model of Consistency

Jose Lopez, who played his first full season with the Mariners in 2006—a year in which he was selected as an AL All-Star—has never strung together two consistent offensive halves. He’s put up significantly better numbers either before the All-Star break or after the break, but never has he really been a constant and hit consistently throughout a 162 game season.

Here is his OPS from the past few seasons before and after the All-Star break:

2006: .771/.658 ( -113 OPS pts after break)
2007: .737/.519 (-218 OPS pts after break)
2008: .729/.814 (+85 OPS pts after break)
2009: .716/.820 (+104 OPS pts after break)

As these numbers indicate, earlier in his career, Lopez posted better offensive numbers in the first half, before falling off the second half. More recently, he’s started slowly and accumulated better numbers in the second half of the season.

This season, however, Lopez has been the model of consistency:

2010: .610/.611 (+1 OPS pts)

Granted, his OPS is absolutely horrible; but, to his credit, he’s been steady as a clock the entirety of the season. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Lopez is currently performing at almost one hundred points below even his sup-par career average (.700 OPS). After all, the 2010 American League average OPS is .739, so not only is Lopez underperforming based on his own track record; but, he’s also batting well below the AL average.

Yet, even as awful as he’s hit this year, nobody can say that Lopez has not been consistent for the first time in his career.

Mariner Pitchers: Victims of Poor Run Support

The Mariner offense has been historically poor thus far this season, and it is among the league worst in too many important offensive statistics. An inept offense will impact a pitcher. When pitchers—particularly young, developing pitchers—consistently find themselves in positions where there is no margin for error, they tend to try to be too fine. They constantly attempt to pick at the corners of the plate, and fear leaving anything too close to the heart of the strike zone. Pitchers, in turn, will shy away from contact, and find themselves in too many deep counts early in ballgames, rather than attacking opposing hitters with strikes early in counts. As a result their development as pitchers may be stunted.

For this reason, a pitcher’s run support may be a meaningful statistic—more meaningful than just explaining why a starting pitcher with a great earned-run average has a losing record. Run Support is now a tracked statistic, and this season, three Mariners starters have logged enough innings to be ranked as part of the 126 pitchers ranked in this statistic throughout MLB. Run Support, simply put, is the number of runs scored, while the named pitcher is the pitcher of record, averaged out to nine innings.

This season, Yankee starter Phil Hughes has enjoyed the highest run support in the MLB, 10.11 runs per nine innings. Roy Oswalt, who spent the majority of the season with the Astros, before being dealt to the Phillies, has been saddled with the poorest run support in the MLB (126th overall ) with only 3.77 runs per nine innings. The three qualified Mariner starters each rank in the bottom ten in MLB.

117—Doug Fister 4.78 Runs/Gm.
118—Jason Vargas 4.74
125—Felix Hernandez 3.88

Contrast the 2010 season with the 116-win 2001 Mariners, and one quickly realizes the severity of the shortfalls of this year’s offense.

2001
1—Paul Abbott 10.66
9—John Halama 8.89
19—Aaron Sele 8.25
38—Jamie Moyer 7.68
78—Freddy Garcia 6.41

In 2001, the Mariners had two pitchers in the top ten in the MLB and three pitchers that enjoyed at least 8.25 runs per nine innings. The worst-supported Mariner starter, Freddy Garcia, still received almost 6.5 runs per game, over 1.5 runs greater than the best-supported Mariner pitcher this season.

Paul Abbott received the best run support in MLB in 2001.

To this point in the miserable 2010 season, Fister, Vargas, and particularly Felix have all been very professional when answering questions pertaining to the run support they are (or are not) receiving. But, one can’t help but wonder whether the lack of run support will ultimately impact their approach on the mound in the long run. And, with less-established arms like Luke French and David Pauley now starting ballgames, their lack of support will potentially be even a greater concern in the Mariner organization.

How Many Wins Will Felix Need?

Felix Hernandez is currently 8-10, and he is only scheduled to make nine more starts. He is currently on pace for an 11-14 record. As Geoff Baker has demonstrated so well in his Mariner blog (Two great links--original post comparing Felix's overall numbers to league leaders HERE and follow-up post HERE), Felix is among the league leaders in just about every one of the major statistical categories involved in the Cy Young selection process. But, still some voters will undoubtedly place disproportionately high values on the win-loss record of starting pitchers.


So, how many wins does it take to win the Cy Young? A quick survey of all Cy Young winners dating back to 1956 reveals that Felix will likely need more than the 11 for which he is on pace to earn. My survey does not include relievers whose efforts out of the pen yielded both wins and saves—like, for example, in 1974, when Mike Marshall appeared in 106 games, went 15-12, and recorded 21 saves with a 2.42 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The first column indicates the number of wins that won the Cy Young award. The second number indicates the number of times a Cy Young recipient earned that many wins. (21-7, for example, means 21 wins was enough to win the Cy Young on seven occasions):

31-1
27-4
26-1
25-7
24-12
23-10
22-12
21-7
20-12
19-7 (Maddux won 19 in strike-shortened 1995--144 games)
18-7 (Randy Johnson won 18 games in strike-shortened 1995--144 games)
17-2
16-5 (David Cone & Maddux each won 16 in strike-shortened 1994--114 games)
15-1
13-1 (Fernando Valenzuela won 13 in strike-shortened 1981--110 games)

As you can see, most Cy Young winners in non-strike-shortened seasons win at least 18 games. In recent years, however, Cy Young recipients have been elected with relatively fewer wins. For example, in 2006 Brandon Webb had just 16 wins along with his 3.10 ERA and 178 Ks to win the NL Cy Young for the Diamondbacks; and, just last season, Felix finished as the runner-up to Zack Greinke, who won just 16 games, though he had an outstanding 2.16 ERA and 242 Ks. Finally, last season, Tim Lincecum’s 15 wins for the Giants was enough to earn him the Cy Young in the National League. This is the lowest total ever in a full-season for a starting pitcher.

Evidently, in recent years Cy Young voters have placed less emphasis on wins and losses. Last season, when Tim Lincecum was awarded the Cy Young with only 15 wins, Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals won 19 games. And, Felix, C.C. Sabathia, and Justin Verlander all had three more wins (19) than Greinke in the American League last year.

Certainly, Cy Young voters must take into account that a pitcher’s win-loss record has as much to do with run support as it does with the pitcher’s ERA. It doesn’t matter how much a starting pitcher dominates opposing hitters if his offense cannot score any runs; or, if his offense does score runs, a starter needs his bullpen to maintain his lead in order to collect a victory. For these reasons, a pitcher’s record may not necessarily reflect how well he has pitched. Certainly, this is the case for Felix Hernandez this season.

Felix will probably need to pitch lights out the rest of the way if he is going to have any consideration for the AL Cy Young this season. And, he will need to collect some victories along the way. If he makes nine more starts, he will need to collect at least six or seven wins to even enter the 2010 Cy Young conversation. But, even while I have the utmost confidence that Felix is capable of continuing his great run against opposing AL teams, I have far less confidence in his offense, defense and bullpen—all necessary components to earning those needed victories.

Photo Credit: Mike Tigas - Flickr

Climbing the Ranks: Young Arms Arriving in Tacoma

The Mariners seem to be developing a handful of young arms that may be key players at the MLB level in coming years, either with the Mariners or with another organization—should the Mariners trade any of them away. As the Mariners have added pitchers from Tacoma to the big-league roster this season, like lefties Garrett Olson, Chris Seddon and Luke French, others have been promoted through the minor-league ranks to AAA.

Here are some names to track in the coming weeks, as they may find themselves pitching at the MLB level at some point. Some will arrive in September, after the rosters expand. Others may be a bit further away, and may debut in 2011 and beyond. Of course, as is always the case, some may be injured or regress, never finding their way to the big leagues.

In no particular order, here are some of the arms called up to toe the rubber for the Rainiers:

1. Michael Pineda—the 21 year old Dominican stands 6’5”, and he is a power pitcher. Pineda has, for the most part, been good in his nine starts since being promoted to AAA earlier this season. In 49 innings, he’s accumulated a 3.67 ERA, while giving up 35 hits and striking out 59. He throws strikes (only 13 BB), and as a result his WHIP currently sits below one (0.980). Of his nine starts, six have been Quality Starts. He’s had three games with double-digit strikeouts (11, 10, 11). He’s only had one real rough start, getting knocked around on July 9, when he allowed six runs in 3.1 innings against the Fresno Grizzlies.

2. Josh Lueke—Lueke was acquired from the Texas organization in the Cliff Lee deal. He’s a 25 year old, 6’5” reliever who has also been effective since his promotion to Tacoma at the end of July. He’s appeared in five games (8.2 IP), allowing just one earned run (1.04 ERA). He’s struck out ten and walked only one, while allowing six hits in his short tenure with Tacoma. He’s got a mid-90s fastball, with a slider that kills righties. He could be a key component from the right side in the Mariner bullpen.

3. Blake Beavan—Beaven was also acquired in the Cliff Lee trade. He’s 21 years old, 6’7” and 250 lbs. He’s recently been promoted to AAA, where he’s since made three starts. Two of those starts were really good. But, on August 9th, he got rocked at Omaha, for nine runs in five innings. He bounced back this weekend, though, to go seven innings against the Round Rock Express and allowing just one run. Beaven is a former first-rounder (17th overall), and demonstrates a low-90s fastball. He projects to perhaps someday be a middle or back-end of the rotation starter.

Dan Cortes

4. Dan Cortes—Cortes was acquired mid-season 2009 in the Yuniesky Betancourt trade with the Royals. He’s worked as a starter throughout his professional career, but after struggling through the first half of this season starting ballgames for AA West Tennessee, the Mariners converted Cortes, now 23 years old, to the bullpen. Since the transition to the bullpen, he has really flourished. In ten appearances out of the bullpen, Cortes has worked 14.2 innings and allowed just two runs (1.27 ERA). He made his debut for Tacoma on Saturday, and picked up the loss in extra innings after allowing one run in his two innings of work.

Mauricio Robles

5. Mauricio Robles—Robles was acquired last season from the Detroit Tigers organization as part of the Jarrod Washburn trade. The southpaw is now 21 years old, and while only 5’10”, can reach the upper-90s with his fastball. He complements his heater with an outstanding changeup. He spent most of the 2010 season in AA West Tennessee, where he worked 114 innings, accumulated a 4.11 ERA, and collected two Player of the Week awards for the Diamond Jaxx. He averaged four walks per nine innings this season in AA, which indicates that improving his control could significantly benefit his development as he progresses through the minor-league ranks. On August 15, he made his debut with Tacoma, and through the first four innings his line was very impressive: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K. But, in the fifth inning, he hit a wall (the temperature reached the 90s in Tacoma). He walked three, allowed a single, and then gave up a grand slam in the inning, ultimately totaling five runs before he recorded his third out. Again, Robles’ lack of control came back to bite him in his first start at Tacoma.

The arms that have arrived in Tacoma this summer offer hope for the future. We see starters who have already found some success in AAA. We see relievers who could develop into the organization’s next big closer or set-up man. So, even while the Mariners may be difficult to watch the last couple of months, keep an eye on what’s going on down at Cheney Stadium.

Revisiting the Swap of the Brandons: League for Morrow

During the offseason, Jack Z traded former First-Rounder Brandon Morrow to the Toronto Blue Jays for late-inning reliever Brandon League and minor-league outfielder prospect Johermyn Chavez.

Chavez, 21, spending this season with the A-level High Desert Mavericks in the California League, has posted promising numbers. In 111 games, he’s hit .317, with .384 OBP, and .586 SLG—for an outstanding OPS of .970. He’s also belted 28 homeruns in a league known for offense. But, it will still be a couple seasons before Mariner fans will have the opportunity to see Chavez at the MLB level, if ever. Many things could happen between now and then, including trades, injuries, etc.

Most fans are probably more interested to learn how Brandon Morrow has done this year with the Blue Jays. We remember Morrow as a young player, mismanaged by the Mariner brain trust over the past few seasons. Brimming with talent, Morrow frustrated Mariner fans with his wildness, lack of consistency, and variety of physical ailments that landed him on the disabled list multiple times.

Just last weekend, Morrow, now 26 years old, was one out away from a no-hitter in a game in which he struck out 17 Rays on his way to a complete game shutout. It was one of the most dominant performances this season by any pitcher. But, the rest of Morrow’s season hasn’t been nearly as impressive. But, it has been respectable.

Overall, Morrow is 9-6, and his ERA now sits at 4.45, the lowest it has been at any point this season. He has made 22 starts for the Blue Jays, and 13 of those starts qualify as “quality starts” (at least 6 IP, allowing 3 or fewer ERs). He’s worked more than seven innings in just two games, and he’s walked four hitters or more in six of his starts. Despite the fact that he’s tallied double-digit strikeouts in just that one 17 K performance over the weekend, he leads the American League in strikeouts-per-nine-innings (10.7 K/9 IP). Morrow’s consistency has improved as the season has progressed. One must imagine that the Blue Jays have been pleased with his development as a starter to this point here in 2010.

Brandon Morrow last season.

In return for Morrow, the Mariners acquired Brandon League, now 27 years old, a right-handed, hard-throwing sinker-baller. Last season, in 67 appearances, League accumulated a 4.58 ERA in 74.2 IP, striking out 76. This season has been something of a roller-coaster. His overall numbers are not horrible, though—a 3.10 ERA in 52 games out of the Mariner pen. Of those 52 games, League has allowed earned runs in eleven of them. Of those 11 games in which League has allowed earned runs, he has allowed multiple runs in just four.

If one eliminates those four games in which League has allowed multiple runs, Brandon League would have allowed just seven earned runs in 55.1 innings, for a 0.88 ERA. League, overall, has been the most consistently reliable force in a thin Mariner bullpen, and he’s been forced to carry a large part of the load this year.

Brandon League last season.

Former Mariner manager Don Wakamatsu expressed concern over the high number of appearances League had already made two-thirds of the way through the season, as he is now on pace for career highs in both appearances and innings pitched. But, the Mariners must be at least somewhat assured by the fact that, since the All-Star Break, Brandon League has appeared in eleven games, allowing just one earned run, for a 0.66 post-All Star Break ERA.

Mariner fans will be watching Brandon Morrow the next few seasons to see if he ever reaches the point where he develops any consistency to match his raw potential. Will he become the Cy Young-contending ace Bill Bavasi envisioned when he drafted Morrow fifth overall back in 2006? We’ll see. Will Brandon League continue to impress down the stretch this season? Maybe someday he’ll develop into the closer some project him to be. Ultimately, the determination of the true winner in the exchange of the Brandons will have to wait, not only to see if and when the Brandon’s hit their ceilings, but to also see how young Johermyn Chavez pans out.

Photo Credit: Kevin Dirksen - Flickr; Keith Allison - Flickr

Jason Vargas: Four Key Differences Between this Year and Last.

Some Mariner fans continue to wait for the 2010 Jason Vargas train to derail. Vargas, and his 87 MPH fastball, hardly blow away American League hitters. But, on Sunday Vargas notched his 17th (of 22 starts) Quality Start (going at least 6 innings, and allowing 3 or fewer runs) of 2010, which is good enough for fourth-best in the American League. He continues to show that he can be better than a back-end-of-the-rotation starter.

Most of his numbers demonstrate that, this season, he’s very much the same pitcher he has been his entire career, and certainly his numbers indicate that he’s doing many of the same things he did toeing the rubber for the Mariners last season. He is, however, vastly improved in four key areas. His improvement in these categories may be the reason he’s had so much success this year.

1) Home Run Percentage (2009--4.2%; 2010--2.3%; MLB AVG 2.7%) – Last season, Vargas allowed homeruns in over four percent of plate appearances against him. This season, he’s cut that down to under 2.5 %. Any time a pitcher can cut down the number of homeruns he allows is, obviously, a positive. So, the fact that Vargas has kept the ball in the yard is encouraging. Is he throwing more groundballs this year? No. Vargas, even in 2010, has yet to become a “ground-ball pitcher” (his groundball to flyball ratio is actually down this year to .55. The MLB Average is .79). In fact, he’s the epitome of a flyball pitcher. So, is Vargas just lucky then? Maybe.

2) Percentage of Fly Balls Allowed that Were Homeruns (2009-10%; 2010-5.4%; MLB AVG 7.6%) – Vargas may be getting lucky, or “pitching to his ballpark.” Last year, ten percent of the flyballs Vargas allowed left the yard for homeruns. This season, that percentage sits between five and six percent. Simply put, even though he’s allowing flyballs at a higher clip, hitters have been unable to make solid enough contact to hit the ball into the stands. Presumably, he’s using his offspeed pitches to keep hitters off balance, and he’s staying away from the middle of the plate and the sweet spot of the bat. Keeping the ball in the park has been a key to Vargas’ success this season.

3) First-Pitch Strike Percentage (2009-51%; 2010-63%; MLB AVG 59%) – Last year, Jason Vargas began counts 0-1 roughly half the time. His percentage was well below the MLB average, and Vargas’ failure to work ahead of hitters consistently put hitters into “hitter-counts” where they could then sit back and wait for a fastball over the plate. This year, Vargas’ first-pitch strike percentage is up to 63%, above the MLB average, and it puts him in the drivers’ seat to execute pitch sequences to hitters on his own accord, rather than having to give in and offer hitters fastballs in fastball-counts.

4) Percent of Plate Appearances with a Runner on 3rd Base and Less than Two Outs that the Runner Advances (2009-64%; 2010-35%; MLB AVG 53%) – Last season, hitters against Vargas scored runners from third base with less than two outs almost two-thirds of the time. This season, hitters are advancing those runners only one-third of the time—well below the MLB average. This means that when runners advance to third base with less than two outs, Vargas is bearing down and wiggling out of trouble without those runs scoring. He’s either striking hitters out, rolling up a double play to end an inning, forcing a short pop-fly that cannot score the run, or inducing a ground-ball to a corner infielder (or a comebacker to the mound) almost two-thirds of the time, stranding those runners at third.

Skeptics will argue that Vargas’ success is largely attributable to luck and the fact that, more often than not, he pitches at Safeco Field. This season, his numbers are better at Safeco: 13 Starts, 2.23 ERA, 7 HR, 1.157 WHIP, 2.0 SO/BB ratio. (vs. on the Road: 9 Starts, 4.50 ERA, 6 HR, 1.259 WHIP, 2.77 SO/BB ratio). But, his numbers should be better at Safeco, as it is well-known to be a pitcher’s park. And, not only are his numbers better at Safeco, but they are legitimately great at Safeco. Not every finesse lefty has been able to pitch to his ballpark with the success Vargas has achieved this season. Any team would love to have a member of its rotation pitch so well at home. And, on top of that, his “away” numbers aren’t horrible, either. After all, a 4.50 ERA on the road is nothing to lose sleep over for a mid-rotation pitcher.

Ultimately, it is not always easy to explain, using quantifiable statistics, how a finesse pitcher like Jason Vargas can improve so drastically from one year to the next. With Vargas, though, these four key improvements may be significant difference-makers as to his greater success and consistency this season.

The Most Boring Game in MLB History

I hustled home this evening in order to watch the Mariners on television. When I got home and finally turned on the TV, the game was already in the second inning. I raced to my computer to pull up the lineups, so I could see who had already hit, and how we got to where we were in the game. Then, reviewing the lineup, something hit me.

Tonight’s game may be the most boring collection of lineups in MLB history. The Mariners and Royals are both horrible teams, mired in last place in their respective divisions. The Royals are currently 17 games below .500; the Mariners are 28 under. The likelihood of seeing a well-executed baseball game between these two teams is minimal.

Next, I looked at the starting pitching matchups. Bruce Chen against David Pauley. Not exactly the kind of matchup that ignites an interest in the game. The 33-year old southpaw, Bruce Chen, now pitching for the TENTH team in his twelve year career, carried his near-5.00 ERA (4.74) against David Pauley, who has NEVER WON AN MLB GAME (0-6), in 17 career appearances (9 starts) dating back to 2006 and whose career ERA is 6.71. Not exactly a couple of Cy Young contenders squaring off. But again, any pitcher throwing against the Mariner offense this season has an opportunity to feel like Cy Young for at least one night.

The pitching matchup is only the tip of the iceberg. When you pull up the Mariner lineup, the offensive struggles become glaringly blatant. Only one player in the starting lineup came into today hitting higher than .260 (Ichiro-.311). In fact, seven of the nine hitters in the Mariner starting lineup brought averages below .250 into today’s game.

The Royals lineup, on the other hand, is not too bad. In fact, they have the 2nd highest team batting average in the American League (.278). But still, they don’t bring to town a team of exciting players. Yes, Jason Kendall has had a long, productive career. But, fans don’t buy tickets to watch him. Nor are they driven to the box office to experience Gregor Blanco, Alex Gordon, and Mitch Maier roam the outfield. Wilson Betemit and Kila Ka’aihue, similarly, don’t exude starpower. Billy Butler is a good big league hitter; but, he is probably about the only Royal many fans have ever heard of (excluding the handful of former Mariners currently employed by Kansas City), though he’s hardly a household name.

Yet, despite how dull tonight’s game may be on paper, there were still 24,520 paid attendees at Safeco to watch the Chen v. Pauley showdown. This may be because, as ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian says, “Every day you go to the ballpark, you might see something you've never seen in your life.” Even as boring as this game will undoubtedly be, the slightest chance exists that something amazing or exciting could happen, like a Mariner walk-off. Thus, the beauty of baseball.

Photo Credit: Keith Allison-Flickr

Saluting the Sween-Dog: Mike Sweeney Dealt to the Phillies

Tuesday marked the last day of Mike Sweeney’s rehab assignment in Tacoma. He went out with a bang—hitting two homeruns in a Rainier victory. The Mariners, then, were forced to do something with him: reinstate him back onto the 25-man active roster, designate him outright, or trade him to another ballclub. The Mariners opted for the last option, dealing Sweeney to the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named.

Charlie Manuel said Wednesday that Sweeney will play first base for the Phillies regularly until Ryan Howard comes of the disabled list in a couple weeks. Sweeney was available for the Phillies on Thursday, walking in his only at-bat. Sweeney also goes from a team over twenty games out of a pennant race to a team just two games back of the Braves in the NL East.

Mike Sweeney’s tenure in Seattle began when he won a spot on the roster prior to the 2009 season. He was an integral role player on the ballclub, primarily serving as a back-up DH and pinch hitter. The Mariners, after re-signing Ken Griffey, Jr. this past offseason, appeared to shut Sweeney out of an opportunity to rejoin the Mariners for 2010, despite the fact that he hit well over .300 during the second half of last season—when he was healthy and finally got the opportunity to play regularly.


Out of an apparent sense of obligation or gratitude for what he contributed in 2009’s turnaround, the Mariners offered Sweeney a chance to compete for a roster spot out of Spring Training this season. Nobody thought he would ultimately make the roster; but, Sweeney knocked the cover off the ball in Spring Training, forcing the Mariners to keep him. Unfortunately, his red-hot bat was cooled when Wakamatsu then proceeded to sit him on the bench to languish the first month of the season. In May, in the midst of Sleepgate and other distractions, Wak finally realized Sweeney was the team’s best option at DH. Given the opportunity for semi-regular playing time, he raised his batting numbers significantly. In the three-week span of May 5-May 26, Sweeney’s offensive numbers skyrocketed: May 5--.172/.273/.172; May 26--.309/.377/.603.

But, then, moving into June and with another stint of interleague play in NL ballparks, the Mariners were battling personnel issues, and Sweeney wound up the odd-man out when he experienced minor back spasms that sent him to the DL. He said today that the back spasms that prompted his trip to the DL for the first stint in early June had subsided within a day. He was activated from the DL in mid-June but quickly returned to the DL, after appearing in just a handful of games. His second stint on the DL was also less of a back problem and more of a problem of personnel, as Sweeney acknowledged that he was never really for any extended period of time: “It’s a little unfortunate that I’ve been on the DL this long. I’ve been healthy pretty much since the day they put me on the DL.” He also said, “I was taking batting practice when they put me on the DL.” The Mariners simply could not find a spot on their roster for their right-handed-hitting DH after the acquisitions of Justin Smoak and Russell Branyan.

The Smoak and Branyan acquisitions combined with both Casey Kotchman’s and Milton Bradley’s presence on the team left the Mariners with limited options, and Sweeney, as a result, experienced a prolonged “rehab” stint in Tacoma where, as expected he continued to really swing the bat well. But, when the Mariners were forced to finally make a move, they did, dealing the veteran to the defending National League Champions. Now, Sweeney has an opportunity to play for a team in October, an experience he’s never enjoyed in his fifteen-year career.

But, what makes Sweeney so special is what he can bring to a team—not just on the field, but in the dugout and clubhouse. By all accounts, he is one of the true class-acts in baseball. A great teammate, clubhouse presence, and respected veteran leader. In fact, after being traded Wednesday afternoon, unlike some former Mariners who opted to leave the ballclub so much as a good-bye, Sweeney took the time to drive up to Safeco and personally say good-bye, exchange hugs, and wish all his former teammates luck with the remainder of their season.

This final act of professionalism and class epitomizes the kind of person Mike Sweeney is. He will be a great addition to the veteran Philadelphia clubhouse—a team that already knows how to win. Jack Z said something after the trade that expresses how most Mariner fans feel: “This is a great opportunity for Mike and we are pulling for him to succeed in Philadelphia.”

The Mariners May Trade in August: How it works.

The July 31st trading deadline has come and gone. But, players can still be traded from one organization to another. How is it possible? And, if trades may still happen after the July 31st deadline, what is the difference between trades that occur before or after the July 31 deadline?

Prior to July 3, trades are made freely between teams, seemingly without restriction. After the deadline, however, trades become more complicated, and teams may not be able to choose the other teams with which it would like to partner in a trade.

In August, in order for any player on a team’s 40-man roster to be traded, he must first clear waivers. An MLB organization must place its players on waivers for the requisite 47 business hour waiver period (waiver period begins at 2 PM ET on the given business day and ends at 1 PM ET two days later); and, during that waiver period, any other team may claim the player on waivers.

Vince Coleman was a 1995 August trade acquisition who was integral to the historic Refuse to Lose campaign.

If a player gets claimed by another team while he is on waivers, different outcomes may follow.

First, waivers are revocable. For example, if the Mariners place a player on waivers and he gets claimed by another team, the Mariners can pull him back off waivers without losing him. If a player is taken back off the waiver wire by his team, the organization must wait thirty days before placing that player on waivers another time.

Second, if a player is claimed off waivers, the claiming has 48.5 hours (from 1 PM ET the day the player is claimed to 1:30 PM ET two business days later) to make a deal with the player’s original club, or the player is automatically pulled back off waivers and stays with his original team. The player claimed off waivers can be exchanged for another player(s) from the claiming team; or, the player’s team may just dump the player’s contract on the claiming team without an actual trade taking place (your typical salary dump).

Third, a player may not be claimed off waivers, and once he clears the 47 hour waiver period, he may be traded freely to any interested team.

Teams are allowed to place seven players on waivers per business day. Then, the MLB Commissioner’s office sends a list of players on waivers to the different MLB teams. Each MLB team then has the opportunity to analyze these lists to determine whether the team would benefit from adding a specific player to its roster; or, it may claim a player to block a division rival from claiming that same player.

After the 47 hour waiver period has passed, the MLB Commissioner’s office will alert a team if a member of the team has been claimed. Only the player’s team will know which team placed a claim on the player; and, the team making a claim is only alerted as to whether they were awarded the claim or not.

If multiple teams claim a player, MLB uses a priority system to determine which claimant will be awarded the claim. American League teams are given priority claiming players on other American League rosters, and National League teams are given priority over National League players. So, if a Mariner player on waivers is claimed by both the Reds and the Twins, the Twins would be awarded the claim. If two or more teams from the same league claim a player, the team with the poorest record will be awarded the waiver claim. So, if a Mariner player is claimed by both the Yankees and the Orioles, the Orioles—with their worse record—will be awarded the claim.

So, just because the July 31 trade deadline has come and gone, Jack Z will continue to look for deals to improve his roster. Today, MLB Trade Rumors speculated which Mariner players could be potential trade fodder this month. MLBTR figures that the large contracts of Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins would probably allow them to clear waivers; and, the Mariners would, at the very least consider, consider getting out from underneath three more years of Figgins’ contract if he were to be claimed. MLBTR also figures that Jose Lopez and Russell Branyan may be claimed because their low-risk contracts could be attractive to many teams.

So, after a fairly quiet trade-deadline, trading season may not be over.

Mariner Trade Rumor Summary

The trade deadline looms Saturday. Contenders seek to upgrade their lineups for a postseason push; and, sellers are look to jettison salaries and unload expensive veteran components to buyers in exchange for prospects that may help their chances at making a postseason run in the future.

The Mariners’ premiere trade chip this season was Cliff Lee. As expected, he was dealt earlier this month with Mark Lowe to the Rangers for Justin Smoak, minor league pitchers Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke, and minor league infielder/outfielder Matt Lawson.

Who else may be moved before the July 31 deadline, or the August 31 deadline (when a player must clear waivers prior to being traded)? Let’s take a look at some of the grumblings, by position:

1B:
Casey Kotchman—many have speculated that Kotchman could be traded to a contender seeking to shore up its infield defense, and what better late-inning defensive replacement than the owner of the most consecutive errorless games played at first base? I have not come across any specific teams reportedly interested in the Mariner first-baseman, however.

Russell Branyan—a Chicago newspaper reported (7/24) that the White Sox were hoping to scout Branyan; but, they were not able to get a real good look because he was out with back issues at the time. Evidently, the Mariners sought White Sox prospect Brent Morel in exchange in a Branyan deal; in other Branyan news, the Tigers have indicated (7/28) they are “not pursuing” the slugger at this point.

SS:
Jack Wilson—throughout July, rumors circulated that the Tigers were scouting Jack Wilson. The Tigers have been interested in acquiring Wilson for the past few seasons, so this new interest in the slick-fielding shortstop comes as no real surprise.

2B/3B:
Jose Lopez—Lopez was linked to the Phillies (7/2) after both Chase Utley and Placido Polanco went down creating serious holes in the Philadelphia infield. But, Lopez seemingly has not dazzled scouts, and while he was dangled to the Giants in a deal that would have also included David Aardsma for Pablo Sandoval, the Giants turned down the offer.

The D.A. could bolster a contender's bullpen.

RP:
Brandon League—the Giants are “investigating” Brandon League as a potential addition to their bullpen; also, the Reds (7/29) are reportedly also asking about League.

David Aardsma—many teams looking to bolster their bullpen have shown interest in the DA. Interested teams include the Red Sox (7/29); the Giants (7/28)—who reportedly asked for Aardsma, only to have the Mariners counter by offering Jose Lopez and the DA for Giants corner infielder Pablo Sandoval, the deal was rejected by the Giants; the Tigers (7/21) have also been linked to Aardsma; furthermore, rumors spread earlier today that the Twins were interested in the DA, though they may no longer be interested after acquiring closer Matt Capps from the Nationals this afternoon; and, back in June, the blogosphere (6/2) was abuzz that the Reds may have had an interest in the DA.

SP:
Jason Vargas—the Mariners reportedly told Jon Morosi of Foxsports.com that they do not plan on moving Jason Vargas.

While these names have been the ones that have popped up with the most frequency prior to the deadline, the possibility always exists that a deal may arise featuring a different player. And, Jack Z has made it clear that he would not hesitate to discuss different names if in the context of the right trade deal for the Mariners. In the current economy, most baseball followers recognize that teams are hesitant to take on extra money; as a result, more teams may wait until August to make a trade. It will be interesting to watch the Rumor Mill continue to churn out new reports daily.

Photo Credit: AP

Erik Bedard's Mariner Tenure Should Continue Into 2011

In April 2008, when Erik Bedard was scratched from his second scheduled start in a Mariner uniform, he commented to the media, "I don't like to miss starts." At the time he had no idea how frustrating the next three seasons of his Mariner tenure would be.

In early February, 2008, the Mariners sent five players to the Orioles in exchange for left-handed starting pitcher, Erik Bedard. By the time Bedard arrived in Seattle, he’d already developed a lengthy injury history. He’d already undergone Tommy John surgery, which forced him to mist most of the 2003 season rehabilitating his elbow; eventually, he climbed his way all the way back up to the MLB level in 2004. In 2005, he missed two months of the season with a sprained knee. Then, in 2007 Bedard missed a start due to a neck injury, and then on August 26, 2007 he suffered a strained oblique and was placed on the DL, ending his season prematurely.

A premier southpaw when healthy.

This track record should have tipped the Mariners off: Erik Bedard was not going give the ballclub 220 innings per season. Not every pitcher is an innings-eating “horse.” Mariner fans were spoiled for 25 years, watching left-handed aces Mark Langston, Randy Johnson, and Jamie Moyer consistently put up 200+ inning seasons. Simply put, Erik Bedard is not that type of pitcher. He’s always worked deep into counts, primarily because he is now known as one who pitches to contact. When he’s healthy, his swing-and-miss rate is among the best in baseball. Bedard’s track record, however, was never a point of discussion—at least publicly—by the Mariner front office or the media, who seemingly, expected him to hoist the franchise onto his shoulders and carry it to the postseason.

Almost as soon as Bedard had been introduced as a Mariner, then-manager John McLaren declared him the Opening Day starter. Prior to his scheduled start on Saturday, April 5th against the Orioles, Bedard was scratched after feeling discomfort in his hip while playing catch in the outfield. Bedard said he “just woke up in the morning with [the hip inflammation],” and his start was postponed until April 8th—a game he pitched through the discomfort and beat the Rays. But, the hip inflammation did not subside, and the Mariners placed Bedard on the 15-day DL on April 15.

Bedard came back from the DL and made each of his next eleven scheduled starts over the next two months. Of these eleven starts, in eight of them Bedard lasted at least five innings and allowed three runs or fewer. But, during the final week of June, the Mariners postponed Bedard’s scheduled start because he was suffering back spasms. He finally made that last June start on June 29, picking up a win against Jake Peavy and the Padres (5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER); then, he made one last start on July 4, when he beat Kenny Rogers and the Tigers (5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER). But, after going 99 pitches in that July 4 start, Bedard complained of shoulder stiffness. He was placed on the 15-day DL. His shoulder discomfort never seemed to improve, though, and the Mariners, already well behind in the AL West, shut down his season. On September 26, Bedard underwent exploratory surgery on his left shoulder. No labrum tear was found, though a cyst was removed from his shoulder and a minor labral debridement was performed. Medical experts figured he would be ready to go by Opening Day 2009.

And, by Opening Day 2009, Bedard had fully recovered from his September surgery, despite suffering tightness in his posterior, which forced him to miss some time during Spring Training, and made his first six scheduled starts, going 2-1 and accumulating a 2.53 ERA. But, the Mariners were forced to scratch Bedard from his scheduled May 16 start. Earlier that week, in his first inning of work against the Twins, Bedard had tweaked his hamstring. Unwisely, however, rather than taking himself out of the game as a precaution, he pitched with the discomfort into the fifth inning, according to Don Wakamatsu, “because of the adrenaline.” But, when he went to work out between starts, he still felt the tightness. So, he skipped his May 16 start and instead next started May 21. And, each of his next four starts, he worked at least five innings and allowed two runs or fewer.

But, on June 13, Bedard was scratched from his scheduled start with what Don Wakamatsu described as shoulder inflammation. He’d felt tightness in his shoulder in his previous start on June 7, and the discomfort continued to linger. He was initially only supposed to skip one start, but after throwing on flat ground during a workout June 16, Bedard still felt discomfort. He was then placed on the 15-day DL June 17 with shoulder inflammation.

A June 18 MRI on Bedard revealed no structural damage in his shoulder; and, Bedard returned to the active roster on July 7, making four more starts—never throwing more than 93 pitches in any one of those starts. But, during his July 25 start against Cleveland, Bedard did not look right. He struggled through three innings (81 pitches, 6 K, 4 BB), pitching at lower-than-usual velocity, through apparent pain, and the next day was placed on the 15-day DL yet again with more shoulder inflammation. When he played catch on August 2, Bedard felt well enough that the Mariners scheduled him to throw a bullpen two days later. After that bullpen session, however, Bedard felt more discomfort in his left shoulder, and the team had him undergo another MRI, which ultimately led to him having another exploratory surgery on his shoulder on August 14. But, this time, the exploratory surgery revealed severe structural damage in his shoulder—an inflamed bursa sac and a torn labrum. Bedard has not pitched at the big league level since.

Major labrum surgery is to the shoulder what Tommy John is to the elbow—arguably the most significant injury a pitcher will face. The injury is career threatening, and the recovery process is long and painstaking. Prior to the 2010 season, the Mariners took a gamble and signed Bedard again to another one-year, incentive-laden deal with the hope he would return to the rotation mid-way through this season—possibly as early as late May. But, as one may expect, particularly knowing Bedard’s history of physical ailments, the recovery from the surgery has not been entirely smooth. Bedard has made great strides, pitching in a Rookie League ballgame as well as making a rehabilitation start for AAA Tacoma on July 1, 2010. But, after that start in Tacoma, in a bullpen session preparing for his 2010 Mariner debut originally slated for July 6, Bedard again felt shoulder stiffness. An attempt to play catch on July 15 was cut short because he still felt discomfort in his arm.

Bedard has been frustrated by injuries throughout his career.

On July 20, Bedard had yet another MRI on his plagued left shoulder, and it revealed more inflammation. This week, Bedard is flying to New York to get another opinion.

As of today, Bedard has not thrown in weeks and it does not appear the southpaw will be back any time soon. I cannot help but feel for the guy. Any competitor absolutely hates to stand in the dugout and watch while his team is out competing every day. Some have questioned Bedard’s mental toughness; but, those detractors are misguided. The guy pitched through pain in the past, and it came back to hurt him in the long run; so, a fairer argument would be that he has allowed his mental toughness to prevail over prudent decision-making at points in the past. Moreover, he has suffered very legitimate injuries since becoming a Mariner. To a pitcher, shoulder pain is not something one can (or should) pitch through. Every time he picks up a ball to work out—every throw, warm up toss, or pitch he makes—is more pain.

As Mariner fans, we know what Erik Bedard will bring to the table if he can ever come back healthy. When he was pitching with a fraying/torn labrum and a cyst in his shoulder the past two years, he was still a reliable starter, in that you could count on him for five to seven innings of solid baseball. After all, it is apparent that in his Mariner tenure, Bedard’s most troubling adversary has not been opposing sluggers, but instead his left shoulder, as he has gone 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 162 K in 164 innings in his time with Seattle.

The last thing the Mariners want to do now is rush Bedard back to play if he’s not healthy. And, realistically, at this point in the season, with the Mariners now twenty games out in the AL West, there is absolutely no reason to push his rehabilitation. Of course, it would be great if he were able to pitch this year, pain-free. But, that seems less and less likely with each passing day. 2011 seems more likely.

I, for one, have no problem with the Mariners offering Bedard another one-year, incentive laden contract with an option for 2012, very similar to the one they offered him last season. If the team was willing to make that gamble last offseason, one would think that this offseason, another year removed from his major labrum surgery, that the team may be likely to make the same gamble. It is a low-risk, high reward move in an industry where no move is guaranteed to be worth the cost.

More than anything, though, I want to see Erik Bedard healthy again—preferably wearing his familiar #45, for the Seattle Mariners.

Photo credit: AP-Tom Olmscheid; Seattle Times-Rod Mar.

Figgins/Pierre: Are they the same player?

On the WGN Chicago broadcast of tonight’s Mariner game, “Hawk” Harrelson and Steve Stone remarked that Juan Pierre and Chone Figgins are essentially the same player—they were both part of the Rockies organization at the outset of their careers where they roomed together and developed very similar baseball skill-sets and began similar MLB paths.

A look at their numbers shows how similar their careers have actually been. The Rockies drafted Figgins in 1997, Pierre in 1998. Interestingly, the Mariners drafted Pierre in both the 1995 and 1995 amateur drafts; but did not sign. Figgins was traded to the Angels in 2001, and both Figgins and Pierre primarily played centerfield early in their careers. The Angels eventually had Figgins playing both third base and second base, and by 2007, the Angels had all-but converted him to an infielder (only 11 starts in OF in 2007). Pierre played centerfield throughout the early part of his career with the Rockies, Marlins, Cubs, and Dodgers (the Dodgers moved Pierre to LF, until they acquired Manny and all of a sudden didn’t have room in their outfield to start Pierre).

Figgins and Pierre have similar career batting averages (Figgins .286; Pierre .298), on-base percentages (Figgins .360; Pierre .346), and slugging percentages (Figgins .378; Pierre .367). Also, both have been consistent stolen base threats throughout their careers, with Pierre’s career numbers exceeding Figgins’ (Pierre 493; Figgins 304).

Mirror Image: Chone Figgins

Finally, and most important to Mariner fans, both are having underachieving 2010 seasons, relative to their career norms. We all know how disappointing Figgins has been this season (.229/.330/.268), particularly in comparison to what the Mariners expected. Pierre is also down (.258/.327/.289) from his averages, though his drop-offs aren’t nearly as pronounced as Figgins’.

Finally, this season, the first of a four-year $36 million deal signed this offseason, Chone Figgins is slated to earn $8.5 million in 2010. Pierre is to earn $7 million, as he is in the fourth year of a five-year, $44 million deal he signed with the Dodgers after the 2006 season.

Mirror Image: Juan Pierre

Ultimately, Figgins and Pierre have shared similar paths through the major leagues. Both have had long, fairly successful careers; and both are suffering down years thus far in 2010. Undoubtedly, both will hope to recover next season, as it will be Pierre’s contract season and a second chance for Figgins to prove to Seattle fans that he is worth his contract.