Opening Day Post-Season Predictions: American League

Today marks the 2011 Major League Baseball’s Opening Day. The Mariners will kick off tomorrow in Oakland with Felix taking the hill against Trevor Cahill, he who won eighteen games and logged a 2.97 ERA in thirty starts last year. Speaking of Oakland, the A’s are my pick to win the AL West.

American League West: Oakland Athletics

Cahill leads a young Oakland A’s rotation that is among the best in baseball. Imagine playing a four-game set in Oakland and having to face Cahill, Brett Anderson (2.80 ERA over 19 starts), Gio Gonzalez (15 wins, 3.23 ERA in 33 starts), and Dallas Braden (3.50 ERA in 30 starts, including a perfect game). Add Andrew Bailey to the back end of their bullpen and you’ll likely have problems. Largely because the A’s pitching staff appears so good, the A’s will win the American League West. The Cliff Lee-less Rangers will surely hit, but the A’s will pitch. I’ll take pitching over hitting in this one.

American League Central: Minnesota Twins

The Twins will come back in 2011 to defend the AL Central titles they won in both 2009 and 2010. They will take the Central again this year. Ron Gardenhire always has his guys playing to the best of their abilities, and with Joe Nathan coming back after missing 2010 because of Tommy John surgery, and Justin Morneau cleared to play following a concussion that sidelined him last season, they should keep control of their division. The White Sox added Adam Dunn, and Paul Konerko is coming off a career year, but with recently-injured Jake Peavy beginning the season on the disabled list, and questions as to who will certain roles in their bullpen after the departure of Bobby Jenks, I’m not sold on the White Sox.

American League East: Boston Red Sox

A Red Sox squad that already has lots of star-power (think Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ortiz) added a number of impact players during the offseason, including LF Carl Crawford, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and RP Bobby Jenks. And, as far as starting pitching is concerned, the Red Sox know they’ll get quality innings from Jon Lester, John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be the fifth guy in the rotation, and who knows whether he’ll ever be as effective as he was in 2008, or more like the inconsistent and repeatedly-hurt hurler of 2009 and 2010. But for a fifth starter, he’ll be okay, even if overpaid. Tim Wakefield and his knuckleball, of course, will be on call to fill in as needed. With the uncertainty surrounding the Yankees starting rotation after Andy Pettite’s retirement and the Yankees’ inability to lure Cliff Lee to the Bronx, the Red Sox appear to have the upper hand in the East.

American League Wild Card: New York Yankees

The Yankees still have the power of the Steinbrenner regime, and they still have guys named Sabathia, Jeter, A-Rod, Texeira, Granderson, Swisher, and Rivera. Any gaps in the roster will be filled as needed. For that reason, the Yankees will win the Wild Card.

Figgy’s Spring Training Track Record May Indicate a Good Sign

It’s no secret that, generally, Spring Training statistics mean nothing. For example, Mariner fans have watched Matt Tuiasosopo tear the cover off the ball the last few Springs, and never has his Cactus League offensive prowess translated to his regular season.

The Mariners’ Cactus League schedule wrapped up today, and so concluded Chone Figgins’ 2011 Cactus League season. In what may be an auspicious sign for Mariner fans, Figgins has experienced his best Spring, statistically, in stark contrast to last Spring.

In 2010, Figgins had a relatively poor offensive Cactus League season. He compiled a .254 AVG, .421 OBP, and .390 SLG for an OPS of .811. He struck out ten times in fifty-nine at-bats, and was caught stealing five times in eight attempts. It was his worst Cactus League season in terms of batting average, and near-worst in terms of his on-base and slugging percentages. He followed his offensive struggles in the Cactus League with offensive struggles throughout the regular season.

His 2011 Cactus League campaign was everything his 2010 campaign wasn’t. He hit far better this season and appears far more comfortable. This Spring, Figgy hit .396, with a .473 OBP and .521 SLG, for an OPS of .994, over 150 points higher than last Spring. Also, in eleven fewer at-bats than last Spring, he notched more hits, runs, total bases, RBIs, and stolen bases.

But, what may give hope to Mariner fans is that Figgins’ recent history demonstrates that, his regular season performance seems to follow his Cactus League efforts.

In 2009, when Figgy was an All-Star and received MVP votes as an Angel, he batted .380, with a .443 OBP and .535 SLG (.978 OPS). He then accumulated his best regular season stats offensively: .298 AVG, .395 OBP, .393 SLG (.789 OPS).

In 2007, another season in which Figgy received MVP votes, he hit .330/.393/.432 (.825 OPS); that .825 OPS is the highest of his career. Interestingly, during his 2007 Cactus League, Figgy logged his highest Cactus League OPS, at 1.114.

Ultimately, Figgins’ Cactus League statistics seem to indicate his regular season numbers. If so, Figgy’s outstanding Spring this year may be a sign of good things to come.

Why Ryan Langerhans Makes a Great 4th Outfielder

Today, Ryan Langerhans started in centerfield for the Mariners as they took on the Angels in Peoria. He had two hits, including a double off the wall in centerfield, raising his Cactus League average to .375.

As the battle for roster spots continues, Ryan Langerhans will again make a compelling case for making the ballclub out of camp as the 4th outfielder, a roster spot he’s occupied for the better part of the last two seasons.

He should earn that spot on the roster for at least six reasons.

First, he is capable of sitting for three or four days, then coming off the bench to pinch hit against a tough righty late in a game. He’s had nearly 100 pinch hit at bats over his eight-season career, so he’s experienced pinch-hitting in pressure situations.

Second, he’s also a very capable defender in the outfield, where he can play each of the outfield positions, as well as first base. While many reserve outfielders are strictly corner options (think Tui, Jack Cust, Mike Carp), Langerhans can play the corner spots as well as centerfield.

Third, Langerhans works counts and takes pitches. He walked 24 times in 132 plate appearances last season, logging a .344 OBP, despite a batting average below the Mendoza Line.

Fourth, he has potential to hit the ball out of the park. He’s hit thirty career bombs and four career pinch hit homeruns.

Fifth, Langerhans can steal a base, either when he gets on base himself, or when he replaces a teammate as a pinch-runner. Last year, he stole four bags in five attempts.

Sixth, and probably most importantly, Langerhans is no longer a prospect. He is what he is at this point in his career—a veteran role player. Teams don’t want young, developing hitters to take bench roles. Guys like Michael Saunders and Mike Carp need to get consistent at-bats. They can’t waste away on the bench five days a week, as they need to continue to develop as hitters, if not at the MLB level, then in Tacoma. Langerhans at thirty years old, can sit for days at a time.

For these six reasons, the Mariners should choose to carry Ryan Langerhans as their fourth outfielder. Of course, if he continues to hit well through the remainder of the Cactus League schedule, his presence on the roster should be a near guarantee.

With Spring Comes Optimism

Today marked the first game the Mariners played this spring. They outslugged the Padres, and squeaked out a one-run win in ten, 13-12. Yes, the Seattle Mariners scored 13 runs in a game. How many times did the Mariners score 13 runs in a game last year? None. But, that was last year. And, this is 2011, when optimism reigns supreme in each ballclub’s spring camp.

Fans around the Northwest are optimistic the Mariner offense, in 2011, will occasionally be able to come out on top in a slugfest.

Erik Bedard started today’s game and was fantastic. He used only nine pitches to work his one inning, and eight of those pitches were for strikes. He worked ahead of the three hitters he faced, striking out two. But, most importantly, it appears he took another step in his long road back from the multiple arm surgeries he’s undergone since his last MLB appearance.

Fans around the Northwest are optimistic that Erik Bedard, in 2011, will make thirty pain-free starts this season.

A couple of young Mariner prospects were given opportunities to shine today. Outfielder Johermyn Chavez, acquired last year from Toronto in the Brandon Morrow trade, hit a double and scored two runs. Third baseman Matt Mangini had a pair of singles and scored a run. Mike Carp notched two hits and batted in two. And, Carlos Peguero hit the two-run bomb in the bottom of the ninth to send the game into extra innings; then, in the top of the tenth, he earned an outfield assist by throwing out a runner at home plate to keep the game tied.

Fans around the Northwest are optimistic that maybe one of these youngsters will merge the future with the present, and, in 2011, work his way into the starting lineup as an everyday player.

Josh Bard was 3-3 today, and he scored a run. He also ended the game with the go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the tenth.

Fans around the Northwest are optimistic that Mariners catchers, in 2011, may hit a little bit.

Finally, the Mariners won today. They won in an exciting finish.

Fans around the Northwest are optimistic the Mariners, in 2011, will pull off a few more exciting finishes this season.

The Cactus League schedule is upon us. As rainy and as cold as the weather is here in Seattle, when we turned on our radios today and listened to Dave Sims and Rick Rizzs call the game, we heard the sounds of summer and anticipated the sunshine and warm evenings that make baseball in the Northwest such an enjoyable experience. We turn the calendar to March on Tuesday. Spring is here. Baseball is back.

What A Reputation Can Do For You

In yesterday’s NFC Championship game, Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler left the game just prior to the second offensive series in the second half. At the time, reports indicated he’d suffered a knee injury of some kind during the first half, and his return was officially “questionable.” As soon as Cutler left the game, though, the sports world was blowing up with current players, former players, analysts, and others questioning the severity of his injury and resulting absence from the field. Current and former players said they’d never leave an NFC Championship game, but for the worst injuries—and here was Cutler standing on the sideline, riding a stationary bicycle, and otherwise appearing functional enough to lead the Bears’ sputtering offense.

After undergoing an MRI today, the Bears announced that Cutler suffered a Grade II MCL sprain in his left knee—meaning a partial terror of the MCL—an injury that typically requires 3-4 weeks to heal. The injury is of the type that would warrant one’s removal from the game, as such a sprain would limit Cutler’s lateral movement and inhibit his ability to plant his front foot when making throws.

But, the interesting aspect of the whole ordeal wasn’t that Cutler failed to finish the game. The most fascinating development was how quickly and venomous the anti-Cutler sentiments began flowing. The anti-Cutler reaction resulted largely because of his reputation. He is not known to act friendly with the media or fans, but rather he comes off as aloof and disinterested. His body language is notoriously poor, and he appears as a moping whiner. The anti-Cutler reaction snowballed largely because few members of the blogosphere/Twitterverse had interest in defending Cutler’s toughness or the legitimacy of his injury. Consequently, the anti-Cutler cries grew louder and louder, unrestrained in large part.

If Jay Culter held a stronger reputation for toughness in the football community, neither the media nor his peers would have piled on their negative remarks the way they did. Did the local Seattle media or other players around the league throw Matt Hasselbeck under the bus when he was unable to play in the Week 17 game against the Rams with the playoffs on the line? No, because Matt Hasselbeck is well-liked, and maintains a strong reputation among fans and his peers.

The Cutler saga relates to a developing situation in Seattle.

Milton Bradley’s reputation suffers from his actions both on and off the field. He’s built his reputation over the course of his entire career, over multiple seasons and with multiple teams in both the American and National Leagues. His most recent run-in with the law, regardless of whether he’s convicted of anything, will only further damage an already-tarnished reputation. Last week, when the story broke that Bradley had been arrested in Los Angeles County, nobody in baseball rushed to Bradley’s defense, cautioning critics to wait until all the facts came in. But, while current/former players weren’t Tweeting about Bradley, the comments section of every newspaper read as if Bradley was already guilty of whatever he’d been accused.

In the end, players who develop negative reputations have their work cut out for them. The media won’t jump to their defense, and fans won’t hesitate to blog/Tweet negative posts about these guys, simply because they aren’t likeable. Jay Cutler and Milton Bradley have overstayed their welcome in their home cities the eyes of some, as evidenced by Bear fans burning Cutler jerseys in the Soldier Field parking lot after the game—and Mariner fans calling for Bradley’s release on word of his arrest.

Let this be a lesson to upcoming stars. Be likeable, and make smart decisions. Poor reputations are difficult to improve.

MLK and MLB

Today marks the Martin Luther King, Jr. national holiday.

By the time Dr. King revved up his role in the Civil Rights Movement, Jackie Robinson had already broken Major League Baseball’s color-barrier. Yet, despite Robinson’s breaking the color-barrier way back in 1947, and the great strides the Civil Rights Movement brought toward equality in the American discourse, MLB today hopes the future will bring a greater number of African-Americans to the game.

Baseball lags far behind the other major American sports with regard to the number of current African American players. In the 2010 NFL season, for example, roughly 67% of rosters were comprised of African-American players. In the NBA, the number is roughly 77%. In the MLB, however, the number of African Americans sits far lower than that of the NFL or NBA. Despite efforts MLB has made in recent years, baseball has watched as the number of African Americans at the big-league level has decreased since the 1970s, when African Americans made up over 20% of MLB rosters. Currently, only 9.1% of MLB players are African American; and, since 1997, that percentage has not exceeded 15%. The Mariners, for example, currently have two African-American players: Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins. Moreover, the number of African-American managers, general managers, and MLB owners remains very low.

Observers of this disparity cite a variety of reasons why interest in baseball languishes well behind other popular sports. Some argue that baseball isn’t nearly as accessible as basketball and football to inner-city children. To play baseball, expensive gloves, bats, and a proper playing surface are far more difficult to come across than a basketball hoop or an open field for tossing around a football. Others argue that basketball and football provide more expedient routes to stardom and money; specifically, both football and basketball provide greater exposure at the collegiate level than does baseball.

The MLB acknowledges the low number of African-American players, and has taken steps in recent years to encourage greater interest in baseball within the African-American community. MLB began Urban Youth Academies in Compton, California and Houston, Texas. These Urban Youth Academies provide inner-city children free baseball instruction and opportunities to learn about careers available throughout baseball. MLB plans to open Academies in Philadelphia and South Florida; and, ultimately, MLB hopes to open Academies in each MLB city. On top of the Urban Youth Academy endeavor, MLB has also donated more than $30 million to the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities (RBI) initiative.

In 2011, MLB will celebrate the history and contributions of African Americans in baseball with the fifth annual Civil Rights game in Atlanta. And, ultimately, time will help to determine the effectiveness of MLB’s initiatives encouraging greater interest in—and access to—baseball.

Importantly, despite Dr. King’s passing more than forty years ago, his dream continues today to inspire greater equality.

2011 Projected Rotation: Who Will Eat Innings?

Yesterday, on KJR 950 AM, Jack Z discussed the Mariners projected 2010 starting rotation, and he stated that he hoped it would align like this:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Michael Pineda

Given the personnel available to the franchise, I would agree that this looks like the best possible configuration for 2010. But, it does raise a concern worth noting.

Of this group, Felix Hernandez is the only proven innings-eater.

Yes, Jason Vargas did have a great 2010, a season in which he pitched 192.2 innings (just over 6 innings per start) with an overall ERA of 3.78. But, prior to this past season, he’d never logged more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, his numbers in the second half last year were significantly inferior to his first-half body of work: his first-half ERA was 3.09, in the second half it was 4.66. Additionally, his opposing batting average, OBP and SLG were all significantly higher in the second half. Certainly, this season the Mariners will be monitoring his body to see how it responds to his relatively heavy 2010 workload. While the Mariners undoubtedly hope Jason Vargas can offer the club close to 200 innings again this season, they’re also aware that his 190+ innings from last year may have a carry-over effect into this season. Don’t be surprised, then, if he suffers arm fatigue at some point this coming season.

Doug Fister, like Jason Vargas, had something of a break-out year this past season. He notched 171 innings in 28 starts—just over 6 innings a start. Yet, again, prior to last season, he had never gone more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, remember, last year, he went to the disabled list in early June with shoulder fatigue. His season statistics reflect his struggles as the season wore on. For example, in April his ERA was 1.67, in May it was 2.95. From June through September, he did not have a month with an ERA below 4.34. Prior to the All-Star Break, he held a 3.09 ERA, and post-Break it ballooned to 5.09. Despite only pitching two more innings after the Break, as opposed to before it, Fister gave up 39 more base-hits and 20 more earned runs post-break. He lost effectiveness as the year wore on, and it may have been the result of lingering arm fatigue. Again, the Mariners will be watching Fister this season, monitoring how his body reacts to another full season starting at the MLB level.

Erik Bedard, who the team would like to slot as the fourth starter, hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since August 2009, and he hasn’t had a season of over 100 innings since 2007. The Mariners won’t want to push his body too hard coming off multiple arm surgeries. So, one shouldn’t expect him to be an innings-eater in the Mariner 2010 rotation.

Michael Pineda, who Jack Z hopes will emerge as the fifth starter in the rotation, has never thrown a pitch at the MLB level. He’s also never thrown more than 140 innings at any level in a single season. Again, the Mariners will act with great caution in monitoring his innings and his pitch counts to do all they can to prevent any arm troubles with their highly-touted prospect.

When starters can’t work deep into ballgames, or when they can’t make each of their scheduled starts, the remaining members of the pitching staff—in particular, the relief corps—pick up the slack. Last year, near the All-Star Break, Wakamatsu expressed concern as to how frequently he was going to Brandon League in the bullpen. League appeared in 41 games before the Break, before the Mariners scaled back his workload. By season’s end, League still made more appearances (70) and logged more innings (79) than any other season in his career.

This year would be no different. If Vargas/Fister/Bedard/Pineda can’t consistently work 6+ innings in ballgames, the bullpen will need to find ways to fill those final three innings. These innings will add up quickly, and with Shawn Kelley coming off arm surgery and young relievers like Dan Cortes filling out the bullpen, the Mariners will take great care to prevent further injury and major arm fatigue. Surely, in a rebuilding season like the one we expect in 2011, the team’s number one priority will be to do all it can to prevent the overworking of its young pitching staff.