What A Reputation Can Do For You

In yesterday’s NFC Championship game, Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler left the game just prior to the second offensive series in the second half. At the time, reports indicated he’d suffered a knee injury of some kind during the first half, and his return was officially “questionable.” As soon as Cutler left the game, though, the sports world was blowing up with current players, former players, analysts, and others questioning the severity of his injury and resulting absence from the field. Current and former players said they’d never leave an NFC Championship game, but for the worst injuries—and here was Cutler standing on the sideline, riding a stationary bicycle, and otherwise appearing functional enough to lead the Bears’ sputtering offense.

After undergoing an MRI today, the Bears announced that Cutler suffered a Grade II MCL sprain in his left knee—meaning a partial terror of the MCL—an injury that typically requires 3-4 weeks to heal. The injury is of the type that would warrant one’s removal from the game, as such a sprain would limit Cutler’s lateral movement and inhibit his ability to plant his front foot when making throws.

But, the interesting aspect of the whole ordeal wasn’t that Cutler failed to finish the game. The most fascinating development was how quickly and venomous the anti-Cutler sentiments began flowing. The anti-Cutler reaction resulted largely because of his reputation. He is not known to act friendly with the media or fans, but rather he comes off as aloof and disinterested. His body language is notoriously poor, and he appears as a moping whiner. The anti-Cutler reaction snowballed largely because few members of the blogosphere/Twitterverse had interest in defending Cutler’s toughness or the legitimacy of his injury. Consequently, the anti-Cutler cries grew louder and louder, unrestrained in large part.

If Jay Culter held a stronger reputation for toughness in the football community, neither the media nor his peers would have piled on their negative remarks the way they did. Did the local Seattle media or other players around the league throw Matt Hasselbeck under the bus when he was unable to play in the Week 17 game against the Rams with the playoffs on the line? No, because Matt Hasselbeck is well-liked, and maintains a strong reputation among fans and his peers.

The Cutler saga relates to a developing situation in Seattle.

Milton Bradley’s reputation suffers from his actions both on and off the field. He’s built his reputation over the course of his entire career, over multiple seasons and with multiple teams in both the American and National Leagues. His most recent run-in with the law, regardless of whether he’s convicted of anything, will only further damage an already-tarnished reputation. Last week, when the story broke that Bradley had been arrested in Los Angeles County, nobody in baseball rushed to Bradley’s defense, cautioning critics to wait until all the facts came in. But, while current/former players weren’t Tweeting about Bradley, the comments section of every newspaper read as if Bradley was already guilty of whatever he’d been accused.

In the end, players who develop negative reputations have their work cut out for them. The media won’t jump to their defense, and fans won’t hesitate to blog/Tweet negative posts about these guys, simply because they aren’t likeable. Jay Cutler and Milton Bradley have overstayed their welcome in their home cities the eyes of some, as evidenced by Bear fans burning Cutler jerseys in the Soldier Field parking lot after the game—and Mariner fans calling for Bradley’s release on word of his arrest.

Let this be a lesson to upcoming stars. Be likeable, and make smart decisions. Poor reputations are difficult to improve.

MLK and MLB

Today marks the Martin Luther King, Jr. national holiday.

By the time Dr. King revved up his role in the Civil Rights Movement, Jackie Robinson had already broken Major League Baseball’s color-barrier. Yet, despite Robinson’s breaking the color-barrier way back in 1947, and the great strides the Civil Rights Movement brought toward equality in the American discourse, MLB today hopes the future will bring a greater number of African-Americans to the game.

Baseball lags far behind the other major American sports with regard to the number of current African American players. In the 2010 NFL season, for example, roughly 67% of rosters were comprised of African-American players. In the NBA, the number is roughly 77%. In the MLB, however, the number of African Americans sits far lower than that of the NFL or NBA. Despite efforts MLB has made in recent years, baseball has watched as the number of African Americans at the big-league level has decreased since the 1970s, when African Americans made up over 20% of MLB rosters. Currently, only 9.1% of MLB players are African American; and, since 1997, that percentage has not exceeded 15%. The Mariners, for example, currently have two African-American players: Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins. Moreover, the number of African-American managers, general managers, and MLB owners remains very low.

Observers of this disparity cite a variety of reasons why interest in baseball languishes well behind other popular sports. Some argue that baseball isn’t nearly as accessible as basketball and football to inner-city children. To play baseball, expensive gloves, bats, and a proper playing surface are far more difficult to come across than a basketball hoop or an open field for tossing around a football. Others argue that basketball and football provide more expedient routes to stardom and money; specifically, both football and basketball provide greater exposure at the collegiate level than does baseball.

The MLB acknowledges the low number of African-American players, and has taken steps in recent years to encourage greater interest in baseball within the African-American community. MLB began Urban Youth Academies in Compton, California and Houston, Texas. These Urban Youth Academies provide inner-city children free baseball instruction and opportunities to learn about careers available throughout baseball. MLB plans to open Academies in Philadelphia and South Florida; and, ultimately, MLB hopes to open Academies in each MLB city. On top of the Urban Youth Academy endeavor, MLB has also donated more than $30 million to the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities (RBI) initiative.

In 2011, MLB will celebrate the history and contributions of African Americans in baseball with the fifth annual Civil Rights game in Atlanta. And, ultimately, time will help to determine the effectiveness of MLB’s initiatives encouraging greater interest in—and access to—baseball.

Importantly, despite Dr. King’s passing more than forty years ago, his dream continues today to inspire greater equality.

2011 Projected Rotation: Who Will Eat Innings?

Yesterday, on KJR 950 AM, Jack Z discussed the Mariners projected 2010 starting rotation, and he stated that he hoped it would align like this:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Michael Pineda

Given the personnel available to the franchise, I would agree that this looks like the best possible configuration for 2010. But, it does raise a concern worth noting.

Of this group, Felix Hernandez is the only proven innings-eater.

Yes, Jason Vargas did have a great 2010, a season in which he pitched 192.2 innings (just over 6 innings per start) with an overall ERA of 3.78. But, prior to this past season, he’d never logged more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, his numbers in the second half last year were significantly inferior to his first-half body of work: his first-half ERA was 3.09, in the second half it was 4.66. Additionally, his opposing batting average, OBP and SLG were all significantly higher in the second half. Certainly, this season the Mariners will be monitoring his body to see how it responds to his relatively heavy 2010 workload. While the Mariners undoubtedly hope Jason Vargas can offer the club close to 200 innings again this season, they’re also aware that his 190+ innings from last year may have a carry-over effect into this season. Don’t be surprised, then, if he suffers arm fatigue at some point this coming season.

Doug Fister, like Jason Vargas, had something of a break-out year this past season. He notched 171 innings in 28 starts—just over 6 innings a start. Yet, again, prior to last season, he had never gone more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, remember, last year, he went to the disabled list in early June with shoulder fatigue. His season statistics reflect his struggles as the season wore on. For example, in April his ERA was 1.67, in May it was 2.95. From June through September, he did not have a month with an ERA below 4.34. Prior to the All-Star Break, he held a 3.09 ERA, and post-Break it ballooned to 5.09. Despite only pitching two more innings after the Break, as opposed to before it, Fister gave up 39 more base-hits and 20 more earned runs post-break. He lost effectiveness as the year wore on, and it may have been the result of lingering arm fatigue. Again, the Mariners will be watching Fister this season, monitoring how his body reacts to another full season starting at the MLB level.

Erik Bedard, who the team would like to slot as the fourth starter, hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since August 2009, and he hasn’t had a season of over 100 innings since 2007. The Mariners won’t want to push his body too hard coming off multiple arm surgeries. So, one shouldn’t expect him to be an innings-eater in the Mariner 2010 rotation.

Michael Pineda, who Jack Z hopes will emerge as the fifth starter in the rotation, has never thrown a pitch at the MLB level. He’s also never thrown more than 140 innings at any level in a single season. Again, the Mariners will act with great caution in monitoring his innings and his pitch counts to do all they can to prevent any arm troubles with their highly-touted prospect.

When starters can’t work deep into ballgames, or when they can’t make each of their scheduled starts, the remaining members of the pitching staff—in particular, the relief corps—pick up the slack. Last year, near the All-Star Break, Wakamatsu expressed concern as to how frequently he was going to Brandon League in the bullpen. League appeared in 41 games before the Break, before the Mariners scaled back his workload. By season’s end, League still made more appearances (70) and logged more innings (79) than any other season in his career.

This year would be no different. If Vargas/Fister/Bedard/Pineda can’t consistently work 6+ innings in ballgames, the bullpen will need to find ways to fill those final three innings. These innings will add up quickly, and with Shawn Kelley coming off arm surgery and young relievers like Dan Cortes filling out the bullpen, the Mariners will take great care to prevent further injury and major arm fatigue. Surely, in a rebuilding season like the one we expect in 2011, the team’s number one priority will be to do all it can to prevent the overworking of its young pitching staff.

Selling Seattle on Jack Cust

Today, the Mariners announced the acquisition of Jack Cust. They expect him to be the full-time DH. This likely means that the Mariners will not pursue Russell Branyan; presumably, the Mariners project Justin Smoak playing first-base, so Branyan will likely need to find work elsewhere. So now that the Mariners have essentially opted for Cust over Branyan, has our offense improved?

Over his time the past two seasons with the Mariners, Russell Branyan has consistently hit for power (46 HR; .508 SLG), and last year his OPS was the highest on the team (technically, tied with Mike Sweeney for the highest OPS, .802). Also, last year, he was, by far, the most significant Mariner power threat. He led the team with 15 HRs, despite starting the season in Cleveland and appearing in only 57 games with the Mariners.

Cust is a very similar hitter to Branyan. Yes, he strikes out a ton—so be patient. He led the AL in strikeouts three straight seasons (07-09), and yes he struck out in over a third of his at bats last season. He did, however, still bat .272 last season, with an OPS that would have been tops on the Mariners (.834). Cust is known as an all-or-nothing guy. While he will swing and miss, he will also walk a lot and hit a few into the seats. He has worked over 100 walks two different seasons (Figgins led the Mariners with 74 BBs last year) and maintains a career OBP of .378 (Cust would have led the Mariners last season as well when his OBP was .395. And, to add some perspective, Ichiro had a career OBP of .376).

For a team without a ton of financial wiggle-room, Cust comes at a relative bargain. He will earn $2.5 million this season. Branyan earned $1.5 last year, and would probably be seeking something higher this year, coming off another 25+ HR season. But, unlike Branyan, Cust does not have Branyan’s chronic back problems. Cust has never been placed on the DL, and he is three years younger than Russell, which may have factored into Jack Z’s considerations. Cust also logged just over 100 innings (105.1) in the outfield last year (13 games in LF, 3 in RF), committing one error. So, if Eric Wedge decides to, he may place Cust into the outfield and know he can keep Cust’s bat in the lineup during interleague play, or when he wants to find at-bats for other hitters at DH.

Finally, while Cust’s homerun totals may not rival Branyan’s (Cust hit just 13 last year), Cust did hit 25 or more HRs in three of the last four seasons. He bats left-handed, so Safeco Field shouldn’t significantly impact his offensive power production (in just over 90 career ABs at Safeco, Cust has 5 HRs) the way it sometimes does righties. Other than the Oakland Coliseum, Cust has played more games at Safeco (31) than any other ballpark. He owns a career .237 AVG, .359 OBP, and .423 SLG in those 117 plate appearances at Safeco. Moreover, one can expect his Safeco splits to improve as he becomes more comfortable hitting in the ballpark with greater regularity.

One thing to watch as Cust becomes the everyday DH is how well he hits lefties. His career offensive numbers against southpaws, like most left-handed hitters, are less impressive than his overall numbers (.225 AVG; .350 OBP; .372 SLG), though even his numbers versus lefties are still better than many Mariner hitters.

Ultimately, while the Jack Cust signing does not exactly trigger fanfare along Edgar Martinez Drive or a mad rush to the season ticket office, his acquisition does appear to improve the Mariner offense. No, it won’t improve the offense the way Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford would have; but, those guys cost far greater than Cust and the Mariners are rebuilding. Cust offers a low-cost alternative that may still pay significant dividends for a team that must find some way to get guys across the plate in 2011.

Comparing Mariner Cy Young Winners

After the MLB players’ strike ended in 1995, Randy Johnson won 18 games, hoisting the Mariners on his back, and leading the franchise to its first playoff appearance. He also received the first Cy Young award in Mariner history. This season, despite a dismal team effort, Felix Hernandez strung together an impressive season of his own, deservedly earning the second Cy Young award in Mariner history.

It has been fifteen years since the Big Unit won his Cy Young, so I went back to look at the numbers he put up that season in order to compare them to Felix’s numbers this year. Did one pitcher have a statistically-superior season?

Here are some of the core numbers to compare their Cy Young credentials:

Randy Johnson (1995): 18-2; 2.48 ERA; 214 IP in 30 starts; 6 CG; 3 Shutouts; 294 K; 1.045 WHIP; 6.7 H/9IP; 12.3 K/9IP; 4.52 K/BB ratio.

Felix Hernandez (2010): 13-12; 2.27 ERA; 249.2 IP in 34 starts; 6 CG; 1 Shutout; 232 K; 1.057 WHIP; 7.0 H/9IP; 8.4 K/9; 3.31 K/BB ratio.

With the exception of their winning percentage, which can be attributed to their offenses, their numbers are very similar. They both threw 6 complete games, and each led his league in ERA. Felix’s ERA was lower than the Unit’s, and Felix led his league in IP. Unit, however, did lead the AL in Ks, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9IP.

So, ultimately, had Randy Johnson put up his 1995 numbers in 2010, one may fairly argue that the Unit would have topped Felix in the Cy Young race. That being said, one cannot overstate what Felix did for a team that lost 101 games. Despite having no hopes of postseason play, he continued to post dominant numbers the entire season. Randy Johnson had something extra to play for—a playoff push.

Also, for what it is worth, one may weigh the fact that Unit pitched his home games in the band-box that was the Kingdome, while Felix enjoyed the more pitcher-friendly dimensions at Safeco Field.

Both Randy Johnson and Felix Hernandez, during their Cy Young years, put together exceptional seasons on the mound, and both were deserving of their Cy Young awards. While Randy Johnson played among a handful of Mariner legends in 1995, Felix was a one-man show this past year. And while there was not much on which Mariner fans could hang their hats this year, King Felix’s incredible season gave us reason to watch baseball in August and September.

The Big Unit should be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and the fact that Felix draws comparisons with him only offers credence to the high ceiling he still maintains. Remember, Felix is still only 24 years old and may have many more Cy Young awards in his future. At 24, the Unit was just breaking into the MLB in Montreal, trying to harness his delivery and find his mechanics.

Three Memorable Calls Courtesy of our Hall-of-Famer, Dave Niehaus

Many of us never met him. But, for years, each night we invited him into our home to share our baseball experience. He rode with us in our cars, keeping us company. He attended family barbecues on warm summer nights. And, last night as each of us heard of his passing, we all felt as though we lost a dear friend.

Dave Niehaus, the voice of the Seattle Mariners since the franchise’s inception, a man who broadcast over 5000 games and was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2008, passed away yesterday after suffering a heart attack.

He is known for having made so many memorable calls. His calls have become household clichés all over the Pacific Northwest. Mariner fans celebrate a “Grand Salami,” or watch fly-balls “Fly Away” over the outfield fence. Some of us express our satisfaction after a great play with a simple “My Oh My.” When I think of Dave Niehaus’ great, poetic calls, three specific calls stand out to me.

1. The Double (10/8/1995)—probably Niehaus’ most popular call, “The Double” was the capstone of the great 1995 playoff run. It was Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, at the Kingdome, in front of 57,411 rabid Mariner fans. The Yankees sent David Cone to the mound to take on Andy Benes. The Mariners scored two runs in the 8th inning to even the score 4-4. In the top of the 9th inning, Norm Charlton, who had taken over with 2 outs in the 7th, was still on the mound for the Mariners. He gave up a double and a walk to begin the inning, and Lou Piniella decided to bring in Randy Johnson out of the bullpen. The Big Unit wiggled out of the jam in the top of the 9th without allowing a run. Neither team was able to score in the 9th or the 10th. So, the game went to the 11th, where the Unit issued a leadoff walk that ultimately came around to score after a sacrifice bunt and a single. The Mariners were down 4-5, and their hopes to continue their playoff run required yet another come-from-behind win, this time against Jack McDowell. Leading off the bottom of the 11th, Joey Cora singled on a bunt to first base. Ken Griffey, Jr. singled to centerfield, advancing Cora to third. Edgar Martinez came to the plate, and on an 0-1 pitch, Niehaus made the most memorable call in Mariner history:

Right now, the Mariners looking for the tie. They would take a fly ball, they would love a base hit into the gap and they could win it with Junior's speed. The stretch... and the 0-1 pitch on the way to Edgar Martínez swung on and LINED DOWN THE LEFT FIELD LINE FOR A BASE HIT! HERE COMES JOEY, HERE IS JUNIOR TO THIRD BASE, THEY'RE GOING TO WAVE HIM IN! THE THROW TO THE PLATE WILL BE ... LATE! THE MARINERS ARE GOING TO PLAY FOR THE AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP! I DON'T BELIEVE IT! IT JUST CONTINUES! MY, OH MY!

2. Playoff-Bound (10/2/1995)—It took the Mariners 15 seasons to finally achieve a winning record. In 1995, the Mariners had been 13 games back of the California Angels as late as August 2. But, from that point on, the Mariners went on a 35-20 run to force a 1-game playoff with the Angels on Monday, October 2 at the Kingdome. This game featured former Mariner Mark Langston, squaring off against the player for whom he was once traded, Randy Johnson. Luis Sojo cue-balled a bases-clearing double down the first-base line (that the Angels ultimately played into an inside-the-park Grand Salami), and a complete game, 3-hitter, 1-run effort by the Big Unit secured a 9-1 Mariner victory. Dave Niehaus captured the excitement as only he could, when the Big Unit finally clinched the game—and the team’s first playoff appearance—by striking out Tim Salmon for the fourth time, on his 125th pitch:

Now the left hander ready. Branding Iron hot, the 1-2 pitch....K inserted, it's over! Right over the heart of the plate! Randy looks to the skies that is covered by the dome and bedlam! As the Mariners now erupt! Nineteen long years of frustration are over!

3. Old-Time Religion (6/19/2009)—The Mariners hosted the Arizona Diamondbacks for an interleague series at Safeco Field. And, on Brandon Morrow Bobblehead Night, Jon Garland owned the Mariners. He pitched seven shutout innings before giving way to the bullpen in the 8th. Endy Chavez started the game in leftfield for the Mariners; but, as he chased after a Felipe Lopez popup in short left, he collided with shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, and was forced to leave the game due to an injury (Chavez hasn’t appeared in an MLB game since). Wladimir Balentien replaced Chavez in leftfield. Going into the bottom of the 8th inning, the Mariners were down 0-3. Garland was lifted for lefty Scott Schoeneweis, and Russell Branyon led off the inning with a solo homerun to put the Mariners on the board. Tony Pena then replaced Schoeneweis, and Adrian Beltre immediately singled to left. After Mike Sweeney struck out swinging and Franklin Gutierrez flew out to centerfield, Balentien’s spot in the lineup was due up to bat. Don Wakamatsu went to his bench to call on an aging slugger, Ken Griffey, Jr., looking for some magic. Even at this late stage in his career, Dave Niehaus’ radio call was superb:

The fans are hoping to catch a little bit of old-time religion right here, baby, with Junior stepping up to the plate. Here comes the stretch and the pitch to Junior is on the way. Swing and a fly ball hit to deep right-center field! That baby is going to beeeeeeeee — FLY AWAY! THE OLD TIME RELIGION LIVES! JUNIOR DOES IT! A two-run home run and we are tied at 3-3. My oh my! Magic is back at least for a night.

These three calls are my most favorite. I remember exactly where I was when I first heard each of them. Even today, thanks to Dave Niehaus, most fans will recall where they were when Edgar hit “The Double.” So many other great calls haven’t been transcribed on the internet, and many did not even describe crucial plays. For example, on July 20, 2004 with the Mariners down by two in the bottom of the 9th inning, Bucky Jacobsen stepped into the box. It was just Jacobsen’s 5th game, but he’d already become a fan favorite after hitting two homeruns in his first week with the team. Keith Foulke was on the mound, looking to close out the game for the Red Sox. With 2 away, and Bucky as the Mariner’s last chance, Niehaus began intertwining the “Mighty Casey at the Bat” poem into his call, comparing Bucky to the Mighty Casey. Jacobsen struck out to end the game; but, the call was one only Niehaus could make.

He was a one of a kind. And, he is already missed. Thank you, Dave, for all the joy.

A Blast from the Past: Justin Leone

Last weekend, Saint Martin’s University held its annual alumni baseball games on its campus in Lacey, Washington. The University’s current roster of players hosted a team comprised of alumni for a pair of seven-inning games. This year, the game featured the Saint Martin’s baseball program’s most well-known Saint, Justin Leone. Leone made the highlight reel when, with a wood bat, he clobbered a homerun beyond the cavernous left-field alley, over the fence for the only homerun of the day, and one of the few hits notched by the alumni team.

Mariner fans may remember Leone from his run with the team in the summer of 2004.

Leone was drafted by the Mariners in the 13th round of the 1999 amateur draft after attending Saint Martin’s College (now University). He worked his way through the Mariner farm system, playing in Everett, Wisconsin, San Bernardino, San Antonio, and Tacoma as an infielder, predominantly at third base. In the minor leagues, Leone consistently posted promising offensive numbers that indicated he’d someday appear at the MLB level.

In 2003 Leone earned recognition for his play with AA San Antonio. In 135 games, he hit a .288 AVG, with a .405 OBP, 21 HRs, and a .541 SLG. His effort earned him the title Texas League Player of the Year, as determined by Baseball America. He was also selected as the Texas League Player of the Year by Topps. Finally, the Mariners named him their Minor League Player of the Year as well. Seemingly, he was on the verge of joining the big club.

He began the 2004 campaign with the AAA Tacoma Rainiers, but was promoted to the Mariners when Miguel Olivo was sent to the disabled list with kidney stone issues. On July 2, Leone made his major league debut in Saint Louis, pinch hitting in the top of the third inning for Jamie Moyer against Woody Williams. Two days later, he made his first start at shortstop. Then, from July 8 through August 17, he served as the regular third basemen, as Scott Spiezio moved across the diamond to play first base. But unfortunately, on August 17, against the Royals, Leone was hit by a Matt Kinney pitch, and was forced to leave the game prior to his next at-bat. X-rays taken that night revealed broken bones in his left hand. Leone was placed on the disabled list, and never appeared in another game in a Mariner uniform.

He spent the 2005 season with the Rainiers, and in October of that year was granted free agency. In 2006, he was in the Padres system, and appeared in one game at the big-league level. It was Leone’s last appearance in an MLB game. Since then, he spent time in the Giants, Yankees, and Rangers systems before being granted his free agency again at the conclusion of the 2009 season.

For his career, in 32 games, Leone hit .214, with 6 HRs (including a bomb off Cliff Lee), 13 RBI, and an OPS of .733. And, while his big-league career may very well be over, he will undoubtedly be welcomed at every future Saint Martin’s University alumni game to have fun and share his experience and knowledge of the game with players at his alma mater.