2011 Projected Rotation: Who Will Eat Innings?

Yesterday, on KJR 950 AM, Jack Z discussed the Mariners projected 2010 starting rotation, and he stated that he hoped it would align like this:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Michael Pineda

Given the personnel available to the franchise, I would agree that this looks like the best possible configuration for 2010. But, it does raise a concern worth noting.

Of this group, Felix Hernandez is the only proven innings-eater.

Yes, Jason Vargas did have a great 2010, a season in which he pitched 192.2 innings (just over 6 innings per start) with an overall ERA of 3.78. But, prior to this past season, he’d never logged more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, his numbers in the second half last year were significantly inferior to his first-half body of work: his first-half ERA was 3.09, in the second half it was 4.66. Additionally, his opposing batting average, OBP and SLG were all significantly higher in the second half. Certainly, this season the Mariners will be monitoring his body to see how it responds to his relatively heavy 2010 workload. While the Mariners undoubtedly hope Jason Vargas can offer the club close to 200 innings again this season, they’re also aware that his 190+ innings from last year may have a carry-over effect into this season. Don’t be surprised, then, if he suffers arm fatigue at some point this coming season.

Doug Fister, like Jason Vargas, had something of a break-out year this past season. He notched 171 innings in 28 starts—just over 6 innings a start. Yet, again, prior to last season, he had never gone more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, remember, last year, he went to the disabled list in early June with shoulder fatigue. His season statistics reflect his struggles as the season wore on. For example, in April his ERA was 1.67, in May it was 2.95. From June through September, he did not have a month with an ERA below 4.34. Prior to the All-Star Break, he held a 3.09 ERA, and post-Break it ballooned to 5.09. Despite only pitching two more innings after the Break, as opposed to before it, Fister gave up 39 more base-hits and 20 more earned runs post-break. He lost effectiveness as the year wore on, and it may have been the result of lingering arm fatigue. Again, the Mariners will be watching Fister this season, monitoring how his body reacts to another full season starting at the MLB level.

Erik Bedard, who the team would like to slot as the fourth starter, hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since August 2009, and he hasn’t had a season of over 100 innings since 2007. The Mariners won’t want to push his body too hard coming off multiple arm surgeries. So, one shouldn’t expect him to be an innings-eater in the Mariner 2010 rotation.

Michael Pineda, who Jack Z hopes will emerge as the fifth starter in the rotation, has never thrown a pitch at the MLB level. He’s also never thrown more than 140 innings at any level in a single season. Again, the Mariners will act with great caution in monitoring his innings and his pitch counts to do all they can to prevent any arm troubles with their highly-touted prospect.

When starters can’t work deep into ballgames, or when they can’t make each of their scheduled starts, the remaining members of the pitching staff—in particular, the relief corps—pick up the slack. Last year, near the All-Star Break, Wakamatsu expressed concern as to how frequently he was going to Brandon League in the bullpen. League appeared in 41 games before the Break, before the Mariners scaled back his workload. By season’s end, League still made more appearances (70) and logged more innings (79) than any other season in his career.

This year would be no different. If Vargas/Fister/Bedard/Pineda can’t consistently work 6+ innings in ballgames, the bullpen will need to find ways to fill those final three innings. These innings will add up quickly, and with Shawn Kelley coming off arm surgery and young relievers like Dan Cortes filling out the bullpen, the Mariners will take great care to prevent further injury and major arm fatigue. Surely, in a rebuilding season like the one we expect in 2011, the team’s number one priority will be to do all it can to prevent the overworking of its young pitching staff.

Selling Seattle on Jack Cust

Today, the Mariners announced the acquisition of Jack Cust. They expect him to be the full-time DH. This likely means that the Mariners will not pursue Russell Branyan; presumably, the Mariners project Justin Smoak playing first-base, so Branyan will likely need to find work elsewhere. So now that the Mariners have essentially opted for Cust over Branyan, has our offense improved?

Over his time the past two seasons with the Mariners, Russell Branyan has consistently hit for power (46 HR; .508 SLG), and last year his OPS was the highest on the team (technically, tied with Mike Sweeney for the highest OPS, .802). Also, last year, he was, by far, the most significant Mariner power threat. He led the team with 15 HRs, despite starting the season in Cleveland and appearing in only 57 games with the Mariners.

Cust is a very similar hitter to Branyan. Yes, he strikes out a ton—so be patient. He led the AL in strikeouts three straight seasons (07-09), and yes he struck out in over a third of his at bats last season. He did, however, still bat .272 last season, with an OPS that would have been tops on the Mariners (.834). Cust is known as an all-or-nothing guy. While he will swing and miss, he will also walk a lot and hit a few into the seats. He has worked over 100 walks two different seasons (Figgins led the Mariners with 74 BBs last year) and maintains a career OBP of .378 (Cust would have led the Mariners last season as well when his OBP was .395. And, to add some perspective, Ichiro had a career OBP of .376).

For a team without a ton of financial wiggle-room, Cust comes at a relative bargain. He will earn $2.5 million this season. Branyan earned $1.5 last year, and would probably be seeking something higher this year, coming off another 25+ HR season. But, unlike Branyan, Cust does not have Branyan’s chronic back problems. Cust has never been placed on the DL, and he is three years younger than Russell, which may have factored into Jack Z’s considerations. Cust also logged just over 100 innings (105.1) in the outfield last year (13 games in LF, 3 in RF), committing one error. So, if Eric Wedge decides to, he may place Cust into the outfield and know he can keep Cust’s bat in the lineup during interleague play, or when he wants to find at-bats for other hitters at DH.

Finally, while Cust’s homerun totals may not rival Branyan’s (Cust hit just 13 last year), Cust did hit 25 or more HRs in three of the last four seasons. He bats left-handed, so Safeco Field shouldn’t significantly impact his offensive power production (in just over 90 career ABs at Safeco, Cust has 5 HRs) the way it sometimes does righties. Other than the Oakland Coliseum, Cust has played more games at Safeco (31) than any other ballpark. He owns a career .237 AVG, .359 OBP, and .423 SLG in those 117 plate appearances at Safeco. Moreover, one can expect his Safeco splits to improve as he becomes more comfortable hitting in the ballpark with greater regularity.

One thing to watch as Cust becomes the everyday DH is how well he hits lefties. His career offensive numbers against southpaws, like most left-handed hitters, are less impressive than his overall numbers (.225 AVG; .350 OBP; .372 SLG), though even his numbers versus lefties are still better than many Mariner hitters.

Ultimately, while the Jack Cust signing does not exactly trigger fanfare along Edgar Martinez Drive or a mad rush to the season ticket office, his acquisition does appear to improve the Mariner offense. No, it won’t improve the offense the way Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford would have; but, those guys cost far greater than Cust and the Mariners are rebuilding. Cust offers a low-cost alternative that may still pay significant dividends for a team that must find some way to get guys across the plate in 2011.

Comparing Mariner Cy Young Winners

After the MLB players’ strike ended in 1995, Randy Johnson won 18 games, hoisting the Mariners on his back, and leading the franchise to its first playoff appearance. He also received the first Cy Young award in Mariner history. This season, despite a dismal team effort, Felix Hernandez strung together an impressive season of his own, deservedly earning the second Cy Young award in Mariner history.

It has been fifteen years since the Big Unit won his Cy Young, so I went back to look at the numbers he put up that season in order to compare them to Felix’s numbers this year. Did one pitcher have a statistically-superior season?

Here are some of the core numbers to compare their Cy Young credentials:

Randy Johnson (1995): 18-2; 2.48 ERA; 214 IP in 30 starts; 6 CG; 3 Shutouts; 294 K; 1.045 WHIP; 6.7 H/9IP; 12.3 K/9IP; 4.52 K/BB ratio.

Felix Hernandez (2010): 13-12; 2.27 ERA; 249.2 IP in 34 starts; 6 CG; 1 Shutout; 232 K; 1.057 WHIP; 7.0 H/9IP; 8.4 K/9; 3.31 K/BB ratio.

With the exception of their winning percentage, which can be attributed to their offenses, their numbers are very similar. They both threw 6 complete games, and each led his league in ERA. Felix’s ERA was lower than the Unit’s, and Felix led his league in IP. Unit, however, did lead the AL in Ks, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9IP.

So, ultimately, had Randy Johnson put up his 1995 numbers in 2010, one may fairly argue that the Unit would have topped Felix in the Cy Young race. That being said, one cannot overstate what Felix did for a team that lost 101 games. Despite having no hopes of postseason play, he continued to post dominant numbers the entire season. Randy Johnson had something extra to play for—a playoff push.

Also, for what it is worth, one may weigh the fact that Unit pitched his home games in the band-box that was the Kingdome, while Felix enjoyed the more pitcher-friendly dimensions at Safeco Field.

Both Randy Johnson and Felix Hernandez, during their Cy Young years, put together exceptional seasons on the mound, and both were deserving of their Cy Young awards. While Randy Johnson played among a handful of Mariner legends in 1995, Felix was a one-man show this past year. And while there was not much on which Mariner fans could hang their hats this year, King Felix’s incredible season gave us reason to watch baseball in August and September.

The Big Unit should be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and the fact that Felix draws comparisons with him only offers credence to the high ceiling he still maintains. Remember, Felix is still only 24 years old and may have many more Cy Young awards in his future. At 24, the Unit was just breaking into the MLB in Montreal, trying to harness his delivery and find his mechanics.

Three Memorable Calls Courtesy of our Hall-of-Famer, Dave Niehaus

Many of us never met him. But, for years, each night we invited him into our home to share our baseball experience. He rode with us in our cars, keeping us company. He attended family barbecues on warm summer nights. And, last night as each of us heard of his passing, we all felt as though we lost a dear friend.

Dave Niehaus, the voice of the Seattle Mariners since the franchise’s inception, a man who broadcast over 5000 games and was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2008, passed away yesterday after suffering a heart attack.

He is known for having made so many memorable calls. His calls have become household clichés all over the Pacific Northwest. Mariner fans celebrate a “Grand Salami,” or watch fly-balls “Fly Away” over the outfield fence. Some of us express our satisfaction after a great play with a simple “My Oh My.” When I think of Dave Niehaus’ great, poetic calls, three specific calls stand out to me.

1. The Double (10/8/1995)—probably Niehaus’ most popular call, “The Double” was the capstone of the great 1995 playoff run. It was Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, at the Kingdome, in front of 57,411 rabid Mariner fans. The Yankees sent David Cone to the mound to take on Andy Benes. The Mariners scored two runs in the 8th inning to even the score 4-4. In the top of the 9th inning, Norm Charlton, who had taken over with 2 outs in the 7th, was still on the mound for the Mariners. He gave up a double and a walk to begin the inning, and Lou Piniella decided to bring in Randy Johnson out of the bullpen. The Big Unit wiggled out of the jam in the top of the 9th without allowing a run. Neither team was able to score in the 9th or the 10th. So, the game went to the 11th, where the Unit issued a leadoff walk that ultimately came around to score after a sacrifice bunt and a single. The Mariners were down 4-5, and their hopes to continue their playoff run required yet another come-from-behind win, this time against Jack McDowell. Leading off the bottom of the 11th, Joey Cora singled on a bunt to first base. Ken Griffey, Jr. singled to centerfield, advancing Cora to third. Edgar Martinez came to the plate, and on an 0-1 pitch, Niehaus made the most memorable call in Mariner history:

Right now, the Mariners looking for the tie. They would take a fly ball, they would love a base hit into the gap and they could win it with Junior's speed. The stretch... and the 0-1 pitch on the way to Edgar Martínez swung on and LINED DOWN THE LEFT FIELD LINE FOR A BASE HIT! HERE COMES JOEY, HERE IS JUNIOR TO THIRD BASE, THEY'RE GOING TO WAVE HIM IN! THE THROW TO THE PLATE WILL BE ... LATE! THE MARINERS ARE GOING TO PLAY FOR THE AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP! I DON'T BELIEVE IT! IT JUST CONTINUES! MY, OH MY!

2. Playoff-Bound (10/2/1995)—It took the Mariners 15 seasons to finally achieve a winning record. In 1995, the Mariners had been 13 games back of the California Angels as late as August 2. But, from that point on, the Mariners went on a 35-20 run to force a 1-game playoff with the Angels on Monday, October 2 at the Kingdome. This game featured former Mariner Mark Langston, squaring off against the player for whom he was once traded, Randy Johnson. Luis Sojo cue-balled a bases-clearing double down the first-base line (that the Angels ultimately played into an inside-the-park Grand Salami), and a complete game, 3-hitter, 1-run effort by the Big Unit secured a 9-1 Mariner victory. Dave Niehaus captured the excitement as only he could, when the Big Unit finally clinched the game—and the team’s first playoff appearance—by striking out Tim Salmon for the fourth time, on his 125th pitch:

Now the left hander ready. Branding Iron hot, the 1-2 pitch....K inserted, it's over! Right over the heart of the plate! Randy looks to the skies that is covered by the dome and bedlam! As the Mariners now erupt! Nineteen long years of frustration are over!

3. Old-Time Religion (6/19/2009)—The Mariners hosted the Arizona Diamondbacks for an interleague series at Safeco Field. And, on Brandon Morrow Bobblehead Night, Jon Garland owned the Mariners. He pitched seven shutout innings before giving way to the bullpen in the 8th. Endy Chavez started the game in leftfield for the Mariners; but, as he chased after a Felipe Lopez popup in short left, he collided with shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, and was forced to leave the game due to an injury (Chavez hasn’t appeared in an MLB game since). Wladimir Balentien replaced Chavez in leftfield. Going into the bottom of the 8th inning, the Mariners were down 0-3. Garland was lifted for lefty Scott Schoeneweis, and Russell Branyon led off the inning with a solo homerun to put the Mariners on the board. Tony Pena then replaced Schoeneweis, and Adrian Beltre immediately singled to left. After Mike Sweeney struck out swinging and Franklin Gutierrez flew out to centerfield, Balentien’s spot in the lineup was due up to bat. Don Wakamatsu went to his bench to call on an aging slugger, Ken Griffey, Jr., looking for some magic. Even at this late stage in his career, Dave Niehaus’ radio call was superb:

The fans are hoping to catch a little bit of old-time religion right here, baby, with Junior stepping up to the plate. Here comes the stretch and the pitch to Junior is on the way. Swing and a fly ball hit to deep right-center field! That baby is going to beeeeeeeee — FLY AWAY! THE OLD TIME RELIGION LIVES! JUNIOR DOES IT! A two-run home run and we are tied at 3-3. My oh my! Magic is back at least for a night.

These three calls are my most favorite. I remember exactly where I was when I first heard each of them. Even today, thanks to Dave Niehaus, most fans will recall where they were when Edgar hit “The Double.” So many other great calls haven’t been transcribed on the internet, and many did not even describe crucial plays. For example, on July 20, 2004 with the Mariners down by two in the bottom of the 9th inning, Bucky Jacobsen stepped into the box. It was just Jacobsen’s 5th game, but he’d already become a fan favorite after hitting two homeruns in his first week with the team. Keith Foulke was on the mound, looking to close out the game for the Red Sox. With 2 away, and Bucky as the Mariner’s last chance, Niehaus began intertwining the “Mighty Casey at the Bat” poem into his call, comparing Bucky to the Mighty Casey. Jacobsen struck out to end the game; but, the call was one only Niehaus could make.

He was a one of a kind. And, he is already missed. Thank you, Dave, for all the joy.

A Blast from the Past: Justin Leone

Last weekend, Saint Martin’s University held its annual alumni baseball games on its campus in Lacey, Washington. The University’s current roster of players hosted a team comprised of alumni for a pair of seven-inning games. This year, the game featured the Saint Martin’s baseball program’s most well-known Saint, Justin Leone. Leone made the highlight reel when, with a wood bat, he clobbered a homerun beyond the cavernous left-field alley, over the fence for the only homerun of the day, and one of the few hits notched by the alumni team.

Mariner fans may remember Leone from his run with the team in the summer of 2004.

Leone was drafted by the Mariners in the 13th round of the 1999 amateur draft after attending Saint Martin’s College (now University). He worked his way through the Mariner farm system, playing in Everett, Wisconsin, San Bernardino, San Antonio, and Tacoma as an infielder, predominantly at third base. In the minor leagues, Leone consistently posted promising offensive numbers that indicated he’d someday appear at the MLB level.

In 2003 Leone earned recognition for his play with AA San Antonio. In 135 games, he hit a .288 AVG, with a .405 OBP, 21 HRs, and a .541 SLG. His effort earned him the title Texas League Player of the Year, as determined by Baseball America. He was also selected as the Texas League Player of the Year by Topps. Finally, the Mariners named him their Minor League Player of the Year as well. Seemingly, he was on the verge of joining the big club.

He began the 2004 campaign with the AAA Tacoma Rainiers, but was promoted to the Mariners when Miguel Olivo was sent to the disabled list with kidney stone issues. On July 2, Leone made his major league debut in Saint Louis, pinch hitting in the top of the third inning for Jamie Moyer against Woody Williams. Two days later, he made his first start at shortstop. Then, from July 8 through August 17, he served as the regular third basemen, as Scott Spiezio moved across the diamond to play first base. But unfortunately, on August 17, against the Royals, Leone was hit by a Matt Kinney pitch, and was forced to leave the game prior to his next at-bat. X-rays taken that night revealed broken bones in his left hand. Leone was placed on the disabled list, and never appeared in another game in a Mariner uniform.

He spent the 2005 season with the Rainiers, and in October of that year was granted free agency. In 2006, he was in the Padres system, and appeared in one game at the big-league level. It was Leone’s last appearance in an MLB game. Since then, he spent time in the Giants, Yankees, and Rangers systems before being granted his free agency again at the conclusion of the 2009 season.

For his career, in 32 games, Leone hit .214, with 6 HRs (including a bomb off Cliff Lee), 13 RBI, and an OPS of .733. And, while his big-league career may very well be over, he will undoubtedly be welcomed at every future Saint Martin’s University alumni game to have fun and share his experience and knowledge of the game with players at his alma mater.

101 Losses: A Familiar Feeling

We can’t say that it was a total surprise. Just two weeks into the season, back in mid-April, many fans had already begun to feel as though the 2010 Mariners may mirror the 2008 Mariners. We were right, and we were wrong.

Here is a piece I wrote back then that drew some uneasy connections and similarities between the teams. When I wrote it, I remember still thinking that, even in a worst case scenario, the team couldn’t be nearly as bad as the 2008 team. Maybe the 2010 Mariners would lose 90 games; but 101? Never. Jack Z was not Bill Bavasi, and surely we were better than a team that trotted out guys like Yuniesky Betancourt, Carlos Silva, Jeremy Reed, and Kenji Johjima on a regular basis.

Boy, were we wrong. The 2010 Mariners were last in the AL in these offensive categories: runs (513), hits (1274), doubles (227), triples (14), homeruns (101), batting average (.236), on-base-percentage (.298), slugging (.339), (as naturally would follow) OPS (.637), and total bases (1836). On top of that, we were second to last in bases on balls (459). Not exactly an offensive recipe for success.

The 2008 team was last in none of those categories. They scored 671 runs (+158), hit .265 (+.029), homered 124 times (+23), slugged .389 (+.050), and were on base at a .318 clip (+.020). They were better in every offensive category.

The only thing that saved the 2010 Mariners—one of the historically-worst offenses of the DH era—was their pitching, which had the fourth-best ERA in the AL (3.95). Had Felix Hernandez not given 30 quality starts (in 34 chances), had Jason Vargas not contributed 21 (of 31) in a breakout season, and had we not had the luxury of watching Cliff Lee throw just over 100 innings in a Mariner uniform, we would have been staring at 110 losses.

We are all anxious to see what Jack Z will do this winter. The buzz from last winter’s acquisitions—trading for Milton Bradley, Brandon League, and Cliff Lee; and signing Chone Figgins—made the Mariners contenders in the eyes of some. It didn’t work out.

Looking ahead to 2011, the Mariners will undoubtedly win more ballgames. Mathematically, it will be difficult for them to fare worse. But one can be sure, with a new manager, and roster teeming with youth, there won’t be the same buzz. The Mariners won’t be a trendy pick for the AL West pennant come Opening Day, and that may not be a bad thing.

“Believe Big”: Who Are The Ad Wizards Who Came Up With That One?

This year, prior to the season beginning, the Mariners marketing team told us to “Believe Big.” That catchphrase was pasted all over posters at the ballpark, on buses, over radio airwaves, and on the Mariner television commercials. We have seen how the team has horribly failed to live up to any of these expectations.

The high expectations, resulting underachievement, and general poor performance of the team this season has resulted in the “retirement” of the greatest Seattle sports icon in Junior, we’ve seen the termination of the guy many had pegged as AL Manager of the Year in 2009 in Don Wakamatsu, we watched batting coaches, pitching coaches, bench coaches, and development guys all get axed. Would they have been fired had the Mariners not believed big, but instead set their expectations lower? Maybe their slogan should have been something like “Mariner Baseball: Let’s win 40% of our Games.” They’d then be within striking distance of their goal now. Maybe Rick Adair would still be making the trip to the mound to tell Doug Fister to work down in the zone.

Interestingly, on the other hand, the professional sports team that plays its home guys across the street at Qwest Field, the Seahawks, did not appear to set their expectations quite so high, despite the fact that the NFC West is really for anyone’s taking. The Seahawks went with “Earn Everything.” What a great slogan. While the Mariners have had to strip “Believe Big” from their webpage and hide from it after totally flopping this season, the Seahawks mantra of “Earn Everything” will be just as relevant if the team goes 1-15, or 15-1.

“Earn Everything” is not only a great marketing slogan. It’s a credo by which every player in professional athletics should live. For example, I wonder, at times, why some players have continued opportunities at playing time, while seemingly doing very little to “earn” their spot on the field. Is Jose Lopez earning everything at this point? Perhaps it is his sterling batting average (.232) or outstanding OPS (.580) that forces the manager to keep his hot bat in the lineup. I’m not going to pile on. I’d just like to see Mariners players earn everything.

But then again, hindsight is 20/20. Why shouldn’t we have believed big, with free agents like Junior, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman brought back to play our power positions. And, after all, it was only a slogan.

I’ll be anxious to see what the team unveils in 2011. Here are some suggestions: “Mariner Baseball: Come Watch King Felix” or “Mariner Baseball: What Hat will Dave Sims Wear Tonight?” These slogans will be just as usable Opening Day as they will be the first week in October.