“Believe Big”: Who Are The Ad Wizards Who Came Up With That One?

This year, prior to the season beginning, the Mariners marketing team told us to “Believe Big.” That catchphrase was pasted all over posters at the ballpark, on buses, over radio airwaves, and on the Mariner television commercials. We have seen how the team has horribly failed to live up to any of these expectations.

The high expectations, resulting underachievement, and general poor performance of the team this season has resulted in the “retirement” of the greatest Seattle sports icon in Junior, we’ve seen the termination of the guy many had pegged as AL Manager of the Year in 2009 in Don Wakamatsu, we watched batting coaches, pitching coaches, bench coaches, and development guys all get axed. Would they have been fired had the Mariners not believed big, but instead set their expectations lower? Maybe their slogan should have been something like “Mariner Baseball: Let’s win 40% of our Games.” They’d then be within striking distance of their goal now. Maybe Rick Adair would still be making the trip to the mound to tell Doug Fister to work down in the zone.

Interestingly, on the other hand, the professional sports team that plays its home guys across the street at Qwest Field, the Seahawks, did not appear to set their expectations quite so high, despite the fact that the NFC West is really for anyone’s taking. The Seahawks went with “Earn Everything.” What a great slogan. While the Mariners have had to strip “Believe Big” from their webpage and hide from it after totally flopping this season, the Seahawks mantra of “Earn Everything” will be just as relevant if the team goes 1-15, or 15-1.

“Earn Everything” is not only a great marketing slogan. It’s a credo by which every player in professional athletics should live. For example, I wonder, at times, why some players have continued opportunities at playing time, while seemingly doing very little to “earn” their spot on the field. Is Jose Lopez earning everything at this point? Perhaps it is his sterling batting average (.232) or outstanding OPS (.580) that forces the manager to keep his hot bat in the lineup. I’m not going to pile on. I’d just like to see Mariners players earn everything.

But then again, hindsight is 20/20. Why shouldn’t we have believed big, with free agents like Junior, Milton Bradley, and Casey Kotchman brought back to play our power positions. And, after all, it was only a slogan.

I’ll be anxious to see what the team unveils in 2011. Here are some suggestions: “Mariner Baseball: Come Watch King Felix” or “Mariner Baseball: What Hat will Dave Sims Wear Tonight?” These slogans will be just as usable Opening Day as they will be the first week in October.

A Premium Series

Apparently, Fan Appreciation Day does not come early to those of us who still consider ourselves Mariner fans.

This week, I was interested in taking in a Mariner game, something I have not done since the Mariners played in Anaheim back in July. I walked up to the Safeco Field ticket window and quickly noticed a sign on the window. It read (something like) “Today’s ticket special is—Premium Game.” I asked the ticket window attendant to tell me more about the ticket special and she responded that she was not sure why the Mariners call it a ticket special because a “premium” game ticket, simply put, is a $5 charge ADDED to the regular ticket price.

I had hoped to buy a centerfield bleacher seat, a ticket for which I was expecting to pay $8. To my amazement, because I wanted to attend a “premium” game, that same ticket was $13—over a 62% markup.

The Mariners chose to market their three games against the Boston Red Sox as “premium” games. “Premium” could take on a couple different meanings. “Premium,” in one context, can mean having or reflecting superior quality or value. This of course, cannot be the correct definition respecting the Mariners because, clearly, the ballclub fails to embody a superior quality. They now have the worst record in the American League, they’re firing personnel left and right, and they’ve been eliminated from any playoff contention. Their opponents this series have been decimated by injuries and sit third place in their division, well outside the playoff hunt. The series was riddled with the Mariners’ usual baserunning blunders, costly fielding errors, and generally poor offense.

The other context that could capture the spirit of “premium” means the amount that something in scarce supply is valued above its nominal value. Maybe so many people wanted to come to Safeco Field this week to watch their beloved Mariners that tickets were tough to find. Ummm…that was not it either. Safeco Field holds 47,116 fans for baseball. The attendance for the three game series, however, was 19,063; 18,381; and 21,936—not even half the capacity of the ballpark. Obviously, tickets were not in scarce supply. Proof of the abundance of tickets flooding the market lies in the secondary market, where tickets were being sold significantly below face value. Some fans were able to attend games this series for as little as $5 a game, utilizing this secondary market.

I understand that there may be times when a Red Sox series would be a premium ticket—perhaps a July weekend series when either team is in a position to make a playoff push. But in September 2010, not too many fans are interested in a rainy midweek series, featuring a hapless Mariner ballclub and Red Sox team without Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Cameron, and J.D. Drew.

Again, don’t be confused Mariner fans. Fan Appreciation Day is October 1. Until then, expect the Seattle Mariners to make every effort to squeeze as much money from their fan base as possible, despite the horrible lineup they continue to trot onto the field. Believe Big.

Labor Day Special: Honoring the MLBPA

To celebrate Labor Day week, and what organized labor means to America, we want to celebrate and honor arguably the most powerful and influential union in all of professional sports, the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA). Most fans know that the players union exists, but many do not really know how important the MLBPA has been for the sport—and how it has shaped the way the game operates today.

The MLBPA was created in 1953, and under the early leadership of Marvin Miller, who prior to joining the MLBPA in 1966 worked for the United Steel Workers of America, the union quickly became a key player in the operation of the MLB. Marvin Miller negotiated the first collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between the players and team owners in 1968. The agreement raised the minimum player salary from $6000 to $10000 per season. By 1970, the CBA allowed players, for the first time, to go through arbitration to resolve contract disputes. By 1972, the players engaged in their first strike, when owners failed to increase player pension funds.

Under the influential hand of Marvin Miller, the MLBPA witnessed increases in player salaries, pension funds, and licensing rights and revenues. And, in 1975, the modern free agency system was born, allowing players to take their services to whatever team they could forge a deal. In 1981, another player strike occurred when players and owners failed to come together over free agent compensation. Notably, the MLBPA and MLB saw the creation of the designated hitter under the Miller administration as well.

In 1983, Donald Fehr took the reigns as the Executive Director of the MLBPA, and one of the most well-known MLBPA-related actions in the past twenty years was the player strike in 1994-1995. The friction between the owners and players resulted from the MLBPA’s lingering distrust of MLB owners dating back to the 1980s when owners were colluding against potential free agents. Ultimately, owners paid roughly $280 million in fines to players, as penalty for rigging the signing of free agents; and, Fehr’s trust in MLB owners was never really restored. So, in 1994, when owners sought a salary cap agreement and a revenue-sharing scheme tied to the salary cap, along with the elimination of salary arbitration, the MLBPA refused the proposal. The MLBPA felt the salary cap was intended to improve disparity between the teams without benefitting the players in any meaningful way.

The previous CBA had expired in 1993, and into the early summer of 1994, negotiations between the MLBPA and owners were heating up. In June, the owners decided to withhold $7.8 million to the players pension fund. This did not go over well with the MLBPA. In July, the MLBPA set August 12 as their strike date, in anticipation of the work stoppage. The MLBPA walked off as scheduled, and on August 31, federal mediators attempted to resolve the conflict after hours of negotiations; but, the sides failed to reach an agreement in time to save the 1994 World Series. The strike finally ended on March 31, 1995, when a federal judge supported the National Labor Relations Board complaint against the owners; then, the Second Circuit affirmed the district court’s decision, paving the way for the resumption of major league baseball. As a result the 1995 season started later than usual and was shortened to 144 games.

More recently, the MLBPA initially opposed random steroid testing because the union believed it violated the privacy rights of players. But, after a public outcry for greater steroid testing, the MLBPA warmed to the idea of a stricter drug-testing policy. In 2005, the MLBPA agreed to the current policy, which allows for random testing, and potential 50-game, 100-game, and lifetime suspensions for positive tests.

There has not been a work stoppage since the infamous 1994-1995 strike.

A few more interesting facts, courtesy of the MLBPA: the current CBA is slated to expire on December 31, 2011; the MLBPA requires its members to pay dues of $50 per day for membership during the season; in 2009, the average MLB player salary was just under three million dollars ($2,996,106); the MLB minimum salary in 2009 was $400,000; finally, players with six or more seasons of MLB service, who have not executed a contract for the next season may file for free agency.

For more information on the MLBPA, check out their website at www.mlbplayers.com.

Playoff Experience

As the calendar turns to September, MLB teams may expand their rosters to include up to 40 players. The Mariners, however, will wait to expand their roster, as the players most likely to be called to the big club are currently with the Tacoma Rainiers and are poised to win their division in the Pacific Coast League and enter the playoffs later this month.

Mariner (and former Rainier) manager Darren Brown explains that the Mariners will wait to recall their AAA players until the conclusion of the playoffs, as he believes playing in the AAA playoffs is a valuable experience that will ultimately help the Mariners in the long run.

But, playoff experience, after all, is something the current active Mariner roster lacks. Only a handful of players have appeared in the MLB playoffs:

Ichiro: 2001; 2 series; 10 games; 43 PAs; reached CS.
Chone Figgins: 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009; 10 series; 35 games; 135 PAs; won WS.
Casey Kotchman: 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009; 5 series; 11 games; 19 PAs; reached CS.
Russell Branyan: 2001, 2006; 2 series; 6 games; 17 PAs; reached DS.
Josh Bard: 2006; 1 series; 3 games; 9 PAs; reached DS.
Ryan Langerhans: 2005; 1 series; 4 games; 16 PAs; reached DS.
Franklin Gutierrez: 2007; 2 series; 10 games; 34 PAs; reaches CS.
Chris Woodward: 2006; 1 series; 1 game; 1 PA; reached DS.

Of all the players on the active roster right now, only eight have ever experienced the MLB playoff atmosphere. And, in addition to that, only a couple current Mariners have a substantial body of playoff work under their belts.

So, when Darren Brown says the members of the Rainiers will benefit from participating in the AAA playoffs, certainly these Rainier players—future Mariners—will have the rare opportunity to hit and pitch in a playoff atmosphere. And, while these players would likely benefit from having the chance to play at the MLB level, even after playing in the AAA playoffs, they will still have a couple weeks to get their feet wet with the Mariners. The decision to have them play through the playoffs and then join the Mariners is a win-win for these players, who have earned the opportunity to participate in their playoffs.

Jose Lopez in 2010: A Model of Consistency

Jose Lopez, who played his first full season with the Mariners in 2006—a year in which he was selected as an AL All-Star—has never strung together two consistent offensive halves. He’s put up significantly better numbers either before the All-Star break or after the break, but never has he really been a constant and hit consistently throughout a 162 game season.

Here is his OPS from the past few seasons before and after the All-Star break:

2006: .771/.658 ( -113 OPS pts after break)
2007: .737/.519 (-218 OPS pts after break)
2008: .729/.814 (+85 OPS pts after break)
2009: .716/.820 (+104 OPS pts after break)

As these numbers indicate, earlier in his career, Lopez posted better offensive numbers in the first half, before falling off the second half. More recently, he’s started slowly and accumulated better numbers in the second half of the season.

This season, however, Lopez has been the model of consistency:

2010: .610/.611 (+1 OPS pts)

Granted, his OPS is absolutely horrible; but, to his credit, he’s been steady as a clock the entirety of the season. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Lopez is currently performing at almost one hundred points below even his sup-par career average (.700 OPS). After all, the 2010 American League average OPS is .739, so not only is Lopez underperforming based on his own track record; but, he’s also batting well below the AL average.

Yet, even as awful as he’s hit this year, nobody can say that Lopez has not been consistent for the first time in his career.

Mariner Pitchers: Victims of Poor Run Support

The Mariner offense has been historically poor thus far this season, and it is among the league worst in too many important offensive statistics. An inept offense will impact a pitcher. When pitchers—particularly young, developing pitchers—consistently find themselves in positions where there is no margin for error, they tend to try to be too fine. They constantly attempt to pick at the corners of the plate, and fear leaving anything too close to the heart of the strike zone. Pitchers, in turn, will shy away from contact, and find themselves in too many deep counts early in ballgames, rather than attacking opposing hitters with strikes early in counts. As a result their development as pitchers may be stunted.

For this reason, a pitcher’s run support may be a meaningful statistic—more meaningful than just explaining why a starting pitcher with a great earned-run average has a losing record. Run Support is now a tracked statistic, and this season, three Mariners starters have logged enough innings to be ranked as part of the 126 pitchers ranked in this statistic throughout MLB. Run Support, simply put, is the number of runs scored, while the named pitcher is the pitcher of record, averaged out to nine innings.

This season, Yankee starter Phil Hughes has enjoyed the highest run support in the MLB, 10.11 runs per nine innings. Roy Oswalt, who spent the majority of the season with the Astros, before being dealt to the Phillies, has been saddled with the poorest run support in the MLB (126th overall ) with only 3.77 runs per nine innings. The three qualified Mariner starters each rank in the bottom ten in MLB.

117—Doug Fister 4.78 Runs/Gm.
118—Jason Vargas 4.74
125—Felix Hernandez 3.88

Contrast the 2010 season with the 116-win 2001 Mariners, and one quickly realizes the severity of the shortfalls of this year’s offense.

2001
1—Paul Abbott 10.66
9—John Halama 8.89
19—Aaron Sele 8.25
38—Jamie Moyer 7.68
78—Freddy Garcia 6.41

In 2001, the Mariners had two pitchers in the top ten in the MLB and three pitchers that enjoyed at least 8.25 runs per nine innings. The worst-supported Mariner starter, Freddy Garcia, still received almost 6.5 runs per game, over 1.5 runs greater than the best-supported Mariner pitcher this season.

Paul Abbott received the best run support in MLB in 2001.

To this point in the miserable 2010 season, Fister, Vargas, and particularly Felix have all been very professional when answering questions pertaining to the run support they are (or are not) receiving. But, one can’t help but wonder whether the lack of run support will ultimately impact their approach on the mound in the long run. And, with less-established arms like Luke French and David Pauley now starting ballgames, their lack of support will potentially be even a greater concern in the Mariner organization.

How Many Wins Will Felix Need?

Felix Hernandez is currently 8-10, and he is only scheduled to make nine more starts. He is currently on pace for an 11-14 record. As Geoff Baker has demonstrated so well in his Mariner blog (Two great links--original post comparing Felix's overall numbers to league leaders HERE and follow-up post HERE), Felix is among the league leaders in just about every one of the major statistical categories involved in the Cy Young selection process. But, still some voters will undoubtedly place disproportionately high values on the win-loss record of starting pitchers.


So, how many wins does it take to win the Cy Young? A quick survey of all Cy Young winners dating back to 1956 reveals that Felix will likely need more than the 11 for which he is on pace to earn. My survey does not include relievers whose efforts out of the pen yielded both wins and saves—like, for example, in 1974, when Mike Marshall appeared in 106 games, went 15-12, and recorded 21 saves with a 2.42 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The first column indicates the number of wins that won the Cy Young award. The second number indicates the number of times a Cy Young recipient earned that many wins. (21-7, for example, means 21 wins was enough to win the Cy Young on seven occasions):

31-1
27-4
26-1
25-7
24-12
23-10
22-12
21-7
20-12
19-7 (Maddux won 19 in strike-shortened 1995--144 games)
18-7 (Randy Johnson won 18 games in strike-shortened 1995--144 games)
17-2
16-5 (David Cone & Maddux each won 16 in strike-shortened 1994--114 games)
15-1
13-1 (Fernando Valenzuela won 13 in strike-shortened 1981--110 games)

As you can see, most Cy Young winners in non-strike-shortened seasons win at least 18 games. In recent years, however, Cy Young recipients have been elected with relatively fewer wins. For example, in 2006 Brandon Webb had just 16 wins along with his 3.10 ERA and 178 Ks to win the NL Cy Young for the Diamondbacks; and, just last season, Felix finished as the runner-up to Zack Greinke, who won just 16 games, though he had an outstanding 2.16 ERA and 242 Ks. Finally, last season, Tim Lincecum’s 15 wins for the Giants was enough to earn him the Cy Young in the National League. This is the lowest total ever in a full-season for a starting pitcher.

Evidently, in recent years Cy Young voters have placed less emphasis on wins and losses. Last season, when Tim Lincecum was awarded the Cy Young with only 15 wins, Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals won 19 games. And, Felix, C.C. Sabathia, and Justin Verlander all had three more wins (19) than Greinke in the American League last year.

Certainly, Cy Young voters must take into account that a pitcher’s win-loss record has as much to do with run support as it does with the pitcher’s ERA. It doesn’t matter how much a starting pitcher dominates opposing hitters if his offense cannot score any runs; or, if his offense does score runs, a starter needs his bullpen to maintain his lead in order to collect a victory. For these reasons, a pitcher’s record may not necessarily reflect how well he has pitched. Certainly, this is the case for Felix Hernandez this season.

Felix will probably need to pitch lights out the rest of the way if he is going to have any consideration for the AL Cy Young this season. And, he will need to collect some victories along the way. If he makes nine more starts, he will need to collect at least six or seven wins to even enter the 2010 Cy Young conversation. But, even while I have the utmost confidence that Felix is capable of continuing his great run against opposing AL teams, I have far less confidence in his offense, defense and bullpen—all necessary components to earning those needed victories.

Photo Credit: Mike Tigas - Flickr