Helping Humber Achieve Perfection

Phil Humber threw his perfect game on Saturday, using just 96 pitches. The Mariner hitters could have avoided being on the receiving end of this perfecto had they worked counts, forced Humber deep into at bats, and driven his pitch count up.

But, instead, the Mariners did little to require Humber to work. Here are Humber’s pitch counts by inning, and one can quickly see that Mariner hitters played right into his longevity during the middle innings:

1. 14

2. 14

3. 11

4. 8

5. 6

6. 6

7. 12

8. 11

9. 16

The second time through the order, Humber did not even break a sweat when he needed just 20 pitches to work those three innings.

In the fourth, Figgins flew out on the first pitch. On the third pitch of his at bat, Ackley lined out sharply to deep right field. And, on his fourth pitch, Ichiro struck out.

In the fifth, Smoak popped out on the first pitch. Seager flew out on the third pitch. Then, Montero flew out on the second pitch.

The sixth trended similarly. On the second pitch, Saunders flew out. Then, Olivo popped out on his third pitch. Finally, Kawasaki attempted to bunt for a base hit on the first pitch of his at bat.

As occurred on Saturday with Humber, when a pitcher finds himself in a rhythm, opposing hitters should have taken pitches to force the pitcher to work during each at-bat—especially when a pitcher quickly gets his first two outs. That third hitter must take pitches, foul pitches off, and otherwise do whatever he can to give his own pitcher the opportunity to take a breath on the bench in the dugout.

Not until the ninth inning did Mariners hitters work a three-ball count. But, even more amazingly, from the fourth through sixth innings, the Mariners did not even work a two-ball count. It’s no wonder Phil Humber only needed 96 pitches to retire 27 Mariner hitters.

A Possible Catching Platoon?

This offseason, the Mariners traded Josh Lueke to the Tampa Bay Rays for catcher John Jaso. He, Miguel Olivo, and Jesus Montero make up the current Mariner catching corps. But, through the first 11 games this season, Jaso had only appeared once, as a designated hitter, and he notched a pair of hits, including a triple and the go-ahead single to beat Joe Nathan and the Rangers last week.

But, outside of that one game, Jaso has spent most of his Mariner career on the bench. Meanwhile, Miguel Olivo has started games at both catcher and designated hitter. But, Olivo has not exactly hit the cover off the baseball. He is 4-36, for a .111 AVG and an OPS of just .274.

Jaso and Olivo had remarkably similar seasons last year. In 2011, both Jaso and Olivo batted just .224. Jaso had a slightly better OPS than Olivo, Jaso’s .651 to Olivo’s .641.

And, neither Jaso nor Olivo will be poised to earn the next AL Gold Glove award. But, between the two of them, they could be a decent platoon hitter, as Olivo bats right handed and Jaso left handed. Over his career, Olivo has hit left handed pitching much better than he has hit right handed pitching (.228 vs. righties; .275 vs. lefties). And, on the other hand, Jaso has hit righties far better than he has hit lefties (.256 vs. righties; .188 vs. lefties).

Given their career splits, perhaps Eric Wedge should consider platooning Jaso and Olivo. Olivo could hit against left-handed pitching, while Jaso could bat versus righties. Jaso is superior in finding ways to reach base, with a career OBP of .341 (vs. Olivo’s .277), while Olivo has the edge in career SLG at .418 (vs. Jaso’s .369).

If Miguel Olivo’s bat continues to falter, as it has his first few games of 2012, Eric Wedge will be forced to make a change, especially as the ballclub currently carries three catchers. One option would be to slide Jesus Montero into a more regular role behind the plate. Another option would be to shift Olivo and Jaso into a platoon. At this point, both seem like upgrades to the current setup.

New Season, Same Story?

Were the two weekend games in Oakland a mirage? It seems like so long ago, now, that the Mariners outslugged the Athletics with timely hitting and guys running all over the base paths. But, now the Rangers shut out the Mariners in Texas? In a 1-0 game? This cannot happen. This is the new 2012 Mariners offense, with the new and improved Chone Figgins, and a mature-looking Kyle Seager and Dustin Ackley.

The past two years, opposing teams have had a field day shutting out the Mariners. In 2010, opposing pitchers shut out the Mariners 15 times. Two of those games were 1-0 shutouts. Not to be outdone, though, opposing pitchers shut out the Mariners 16 times last season. In three of those shutouts, Mariner pitchers allowed just one run.

But, the past two seasons, the Mariners waited until at least game 15 in 2010 and game 8 in 2011 to be shutout. This year, the Mariners offense failed to score by the sixth game. Improvement?

Tonight’s shutout should come as no surprise when one considers Neftali Feliz’s track record against the Mariners. Before allowing a two-out single to Justin Smoak in the top of the fourth inning, Feliz held the Mariners hitless in their first 58 at bats. Feliz allowed just four hits to the Mariners in his seven innings of work. This is comforting, considering the Mariners will face the Rangers another 17 times this season.

Mariner fans cannot stomach the idea of another season being shut out sixteen times. But, nobody really expects the offense to be as anemic as it has been in past years. Right?

An Old Friend Takes on his Former Team

In today’s Cactus League action, the Mariners took on an old friend, Jamie Moyer. Moyer pitched five innings—allowing just one earned run (four runs total), while striking out five. King Felix cruised through four innings of shutout baseball, and the Mariners coasted to a 7-2 victory. Today’s matchup showed two world’s colliding—the pitcher currently holding many Mariner pitching records, versus the pitcher who, by the time he takes off his Mariner uniform, will hopefully takeover many of those same records.

It’s relatively rare that Jamie Moyer takes on the Mariners. In fact, one has to go back to May 21, 1996, to find the last time Jamie took on the Mariners in a regular season game. On that warm and wet evening at Fenway Park, the Red Sox’s Jamie Moyer squared off against Mariner right-hander Chris Bosio. Times were sure different then.

The Mariners trotted out a real potent offense, with an order featuring 2-3-4-5 of Alex Rodriguez; Ken Griffey, Jr.; Edgar Martinez; and, Jay Buhner. 43 games into that season, each of these guys had an OPS over .930. The lowest batting average in the starting lineup was the nine-hole hitter, Russ Davis, who was batting .244 with a .708 OPS. By contrast, the Mariner starting lineup in the 43rd game last season featured a 2-3-4-5 of Figgins, Smoak, Cust, Kennedy. None of those players had an OPS over .884. The Red Sox 3-4-5 included Mo Vaughn, Jose Canseco, and Reggie Jefferson—each of whom carried an OPS over 1.043.

Mariner reliever and Yakima native, Bob Wells, earned the victory in long relief. He threw 4.1 innings, allowing just one run. Moyer ultimately lasted just three innings, surrendering four runs on eight hits. But reliever Vaughn Eshelman picked up the loss after allowing six earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning (A-Rod RBI 1B; 3-run HR to Griffey; 2-run HR to Buhner).

So, yes, at age 49 today, Jamie Moyer pitched better than the last time he faced the Mariners sixteen years ago.

King Felix on Opening Day

Overnight tonight, the Mariners will begin their 2012 campaign. So far, their trip to Japan has not gone well, as they were soundly defeated by both the Hanshin Tigers and Yomiuri Giants. Fortunately, neither of those games count in the official standings. But, tonight things begin for real against the Oakland Athletics.

The good news is that the Mariners will have King Felix on the hill. Over his career, Felix has started on Opening Day four times (2007, 2009, 2010, 2011). Three of these Opening Days (2007, 2010, 2011), Felix has taken on Oakland.

Opening Day 2007 is considered by many to be Felix’s emergence as the ace of the Mariner rotation. That cool April afternoon, Felix tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits and striking out 12 in a 4-0 Mariner win.

Opening Day 2010, too, featured a Mariner win, though Felix’s statistics were far more pedestrian. In 6.2 innings he allowed three runs on three hits and six walks. Felix earned a no-decision in that start.

Finally, Felix shined brightly again on Opening Day 2011 down in Oakland. He earned the win in a complete game, five-hit masterpiece in which he allowed just two runs. He did not walk anybody and struck out five, needing 108 pitches.

Ultimately, Felix and the Mariners have done well against the Athletics in recent Opening Days. Collectively, Felix holds a 2-0 record (Mariners are 3-0), with a miniscule 1.90 ERA.

Will these numbers translate to Felix tonight at the Tokyo Dome? Hopefully he will be sharp because Felix’s Opening Day counterpart, Brandon McCarthy, maintained a similarly-stingy 1.99 ERA against the Mariners in four starts last season, including three complete games (McCarthy went just 1-3 in those starts, despite his strong numbers).

The Tokyo Dome will not be the same atmosphere as Safeco or the Oakland Coliseum. Will jet lag factor into Felix’s performance? Will the A’s young hitters, guys like Jemile Weeks and Yoenis Cespedes, send Felix to the clubhouse early? There is one thing on which Mariner fans can agree—there is no other pitcher we would rather have toe the rubber tonight in Tokyo.

Opening Day comes just once a year.

Another Year, Another Spring Training for this Ancient Former Mariner

He’s now 49, and he’s coming off the Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. But this spring, Jamie Moyer, the all-time leader in Mariner wins, is back on the mound competing for a spot in the Colorado Rockies’ rotation.

In his first two Cactus League appearances, Moyer looked like his old self. In five innings, including one three-inning start, he allowed just one run (1.80 ERA) on three hits; and, he struck out three without walking a batter.

But, like many comeback stories, Moyer’s will not be without obstacles. He was scratched from his scheduled start Friday due to stiffness in his left leg. Jim Tracy, the Rockies’ manager, said he has no timetable for Moyer’s return to the mound. But, if he will have a legitimate shot at earning a spot in the rotation, Moyer cannot afford to miss more than just a few days.

There are now just two active players in MLB who played at the big-league level in the 1980s—both former Mariners. In addition to Moyer, former Mariner shortstop Omar Vizquel, now 45 years old, is competing for a utility infielder spot with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Spring Training is laden with competition for limited roster spots. Moyer’s health and production the next few weeks will dictate whether the Rockies will bring him north when the team breaks camp prior to opening day.

First Day of Spring: Projected 2012 Opening Day Roster

It has been a long offseason, but today, pitchers and catchers report to the Mariners complex in Peoria for their spring physicals. The 2012 campaign is now officially underway.

This spring, of the 35 pitchers who will report, (most likely) twelve will break camp with the Mariners. The Mariners have invited 26 players not currently listed on the 40-man roster (Non-Roster Invitees, or NRIs). In order for the Mariners to add any of these NRIs to the 40-man roster, the team will have to remove a player currently listed to make room. This removal exposes the removed player to the waiver wire, where other organizations may claim him. This process of exposing a player to waivers can create an additional hurdle in an NRI’s uphill battle to make the team.

Hope springs eternal in Spring Training. So, with that spirit and excitement, I predict the Mariners eventual 25-man Opening Day roster.

Starting Pitchers

1. Felix Hernandez (R)
2. Jason Vargas (L)
3. Hisashi Iwakuma (R)
4. Hector Noesi (R)
5. Kevin Millwood (R) (NRI)

Relief Pitchers

6. Brandon League (R)
7. George Sherrill (L)
8. Hong Chi Kuo (L)
9. Tom Wilhelmson (R)
10. Shawn Kelley (R)
11. Shawn Camp (R)
12. Steve Delabar(R)

Infielders

13. Justin Smoak
14. Dustin Ackley
15. Brendan Ryan
16. Chone Figgins
17. Carlos Guillen (NRI)
18. Munenori Kawasaki (NRI)

Catchers

19. Miguel Olivo
20. Jesus Montero
21. John Jaso

Outfielders

22. Ichiro Suzuki
23. Franklin Gutierrez
24. Mike Carp
25. Casper Wells

You do not see Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, or James Paxton listed on this roster. Neither of these heralded pitchers has reached AAA yet, so it would be something of a surprise for any of them to crack the Opening Day roster—though frankly, given their raw talent, it would not be unheard of.

My list leaves off a handful of players who have played substantial time at the MLB level: guys like Oliver Perez and Aaron Heilman. It also leaves off guys who got played quite a bit in the Mariner uniform: Trayvon Robinson, Michael Saunders, Kyle Seager, Luis Rodriguez, and Carlos Peguero. Some of these guys will be sent to Tacoma for everyday at-bats and further minor league seasoning (see, e.g. Robinson and Seager). Others will be released outright, so that they may sign with another organization.

Anything can happen between now and when the Mariners break camp. Players can be added to this competition for roster spots. Others may get hurt, lose their desire to play and retire, show up to camp out of shape/injured, or anything else. And, any player can step up with such an outstanding spring that the Mariners cannot help but add him to the Opening Day roster. We saw Mike Sweeney do just that in 2010. Will somebody be this year’s Cactus League Mike Sweeney story? In the 39 days until the Mariners fly to Japan, much can happen.