Worst in the MLB: Outfield OPS

This morning, Fox Baseball reporter Ken Rosenthal listed the least productive outfields in the majors based on OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). The Mariners rank 30th in the MLB—dead last. It should not surprise anyone who has followed the team so far this season.

Here is what the Mariner outfield has done to this point in 2011. Through 55 games, Mariners outfielders have hit a collective .215, with a .281 OBP and .306 SLG. That adds up to a .587 OBP, as an outfield.

By far, the most productive offensive outfield position has been right field, where Ichiro has played the vast majority of games. Right fielders this season have hit .271, with a .327 OBP and .311 SLG, adding up to a .638 OPS.

The next best outfield position is centerfield, where Michael Saunders, Ryan Langerhans, and Franklin Gutierrez have shared the playing time. Centerfielders have combined to hit .189 this season, with a .265 OBP and .300 SLG, for a .565 OPS.

Left field has been least productive outfield position for the Mariners thus far. We’ve watched a carousel of players out there in left, from Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans, to Michael Saunders, to Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson. Left fielders have combined for a .177 AVG, with a .246 OBP, and a .306 SLG—enough for a .552 OBP.

To put these numbers in perspective, let’s look at some American League cumulative statistics. Throughout the American League, outfielders are batting .252 this season. Outfielders have achieved a .319 OBP and .401 SLG. The average AL OPS then is .721, over 130 points higher than the Mariner outfield.

If the Mariners are serious about contending in the AL West this season, the outfield will need to generate a much higher level of production. The team cannot afford to continue to spoil outstanding starting pitching performances in 2-1 losses and low-scoring shutouts.

When Playing the Game Hard Leads to Serious Injury

During the twelfth inning of last night’s Marlins-Giants game, Florida’s Emilio Bonifacio flied out to right-center field with one out and a runners on first and third base. The runner on third base, Scott Cousins, tagged up and attempted to score. As he raced to beat the ball to home plate, he collided with Giant’s catcher Buster Posey, who had not yet secured the baseball. Cousins scored what would be the winning run; but, Posey suffered severe injuries as a result of the collision. The full extent of the injuries may not yet be known, but signs seem to indicate that Posey suffered a broken bone in his ankle along with torn ligaments. Consequently, Posey will miss a substantial part of the season, if not the remainder of it.

Giant’s manager Bruce Bochy’s comments following the incident imply that he believes Cousins’ play was out of line with acceptable baseball standards. Bochy defended his catcher and implied that Cousins opted to force a cheap, violent collision rather than evade contact:

"He [Cousins] had two paths to go. There was home plate there, but he decided to go at Buster who was close to home plate. Is it a cheap shot? It depends on who you are talking to...He decided to go at Buster and try to knock it loose, that's what it looked like to me. But there was a lane for him."

"[Cousins] definitely had home plate to go for there. He didn't go out of his way, but he did decide to hit Buster and knock the play."

Others viewed the play from a different perspective. For example, Marlins’ manager Edwin Rodriguez had this to say:

“Posey was doing a great job. He was blocking the plate and the runner was doing his job trying to get to home plate. That was a hard, but clean play. He was doing his job. He was blocking the plate and the runner has no place to go but over him.”

Scott Cousins was the go-ahead run in the 12th inning, for a team trying to contend in a tough NL East. Based on the replays we can watch, yes, he had two options at the time: ram the catcher like he did on his way to the plate, or hook-slide to the backside of home plate. Both are legal, clean plays under the rules. In no way was Cousins' play a “cheap shot.” He has a right to home plate, and if a defender chooses to either stand in that line, or dive in front of it (as it almost appears Posey was attempting to do), that runner has the right to go through him. One can imagine that, when all is said and done, Bruce Bochy will reassess his initial thoughts and agree that Cousins’ play was clean, hard baseball.

Cousins had this to say about the collision:

“It’s a baseball play. That’s part of the risk of being a catcher. We’re trying to win games also. I’m not going to concede the out. Not in that situation. Not ever.”

“I’m on this team to help do the little things to help this team win the game. If that means going hard and force the issue on the bases, that’s what I’m going to do. I’m not conceding an out.”

“[I]t’s a baseball play. I feel bad for Buster Posey. I hope he’s OK. I really do. I’m going to send him a message over there to him.”

Last night’s incident occurred less than two months after Twins’ second-baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka suffered a broken fibula when Nick Swisher of the Yankees slid hard into second base to break up a double play.

Nishioka said of the play that sidelined his rookie season in Major League Baseball: “It’s a professional play by Swisher and he didn’t do anything bad.” Nishioka added, “Swisher didn't do anything that he needed to come over to apologize [for].”

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said this about Swisher’s slide at second base: “Just breaking up a double play. No issues there. [Nishioka] just got caught a little flat-footed and Swisher's a clean player and that's just a good baseball slide trying to break up a double play. There's no issue there.”

In baseball, a sport saturated with unwritten rules and unspoken gentlemen’s agreements, a fine line exists between good, clean hustle and dirty, cheap shots. Baseball is a sport where tradition allows for a pitcher to intentionally throw at a batter in some circumstances. In other situations, though, an intentionally-hit batsmen can lead to an on-field melee.

As baseball observers, we have the benefit of watching the replays of the Cousins-Posey collision in slow motion. We also have the luxury of hindsight. If we put ourselves in Scott Cousins’ shoes running full speed down the third-base line, as the play is unfolding in real time, we have a tougher time placing blame on him for what Bochy implied may have been a cheap shot. A play like that unfolds quickly, and players’ competitive juices shape their in-game reactions.

If Major League Baseball wants to do away with this type of contact—both at home plate with catchers and at second base, to protect middle infielders from base runners sliding hard to break up double plays—it must legislate a prohibition of this type of play in its rules. Currently, a custom exists in baseball for base runners to take out catchers while attempting to score. Scott Cousins simply practiced what has become popularized over baseball’s storied history. MLB’s best option for addressing this concern and eliminate these types of collisions is to attack it head-on with a rules change.

Should the Mariners Give Ichiro a Break?

Ichiro will turn 38 years old this year. Over his eleven-season MLB career, he has played in over 1600 games, never fewer than 146 in a season. In fact he has appeared in 157 games in each of his seasons but one. He continues to be able to do this year after year because he takes such great care of himself, and he keeps his body in remarkable physical condition.

Right now, though, Ichiro is mired in something of a slump. Since April 30th, his batting average has fallen 40 points; his on-base percentage, 36 points; his slugging percentage, 48 points. He has yet to hit a homerun this season, and he has not stolen a base in the month of May. When one combines that type of trail-off with the fact that he batted 24 points lower during the second half of last season than he did in the first half, or that in 2009, his second-half average fell off 22 points from the first half, one wonders if fatigue may be affecting his game.

He’s batting just .288 so far this season, with an OPS of .674. For the average MLB player, these numbers would be satisfying. But for Ichiro, and a Mariners organization that pays him 18 million dollars per season to be the team’s MVP, these numbers feel underwhelming.

Since the calendar turned to May, Ichiro has been slumping: he’s batted .222 with a .288 on-base percentage this month. History does show that Ichiro is a slow starter. In fact, over his career, April has been his least productive offensive month. But, May—even after factoring in this season’s May-long slump—has been his most productive month. Ichiro has batted .355 in the month of May over his MLB career!

In the so-called post-steroid era, players have not been aging as gracefully as they did a decade ago. With greater regularity, players in their mid-to-late thirties have struggled with diminishing levels of production. For example, we have watched former All-Stars Derrek Lee, Hideki Matsui, Magglio Ordonez, and Raul Ibanez all hit a wall this season. And, while Ichiro’s career has been healthier than these players, and while Ichiro plays a different kind of game than these guys, he is still human, and age will still affect his game at some point.

One suggestion would be to rest Ichiro a bit more regularly. If he were to have an extra day off every couple weeks, perhaps he would be fresher and more productive down the stretch in the second half of the season. This suggestion appears even more plausible now that the Mariners have a gaggle of outfielders available on their bench. The team could trot out Gutierrez in centerfield, with Peguero/Wilson/Saunders filling the corner spots.

However, resting Ichiro for even a handful of games this season would jeopardize his streak of consecutive 200-hit seasons. To date, he is on pace to collect 194 hits in 2011. If he were to rest just once every two weeks, he would miss nine games between now and the end of the season—probably losing between 35-50 at-bats. That would mean that he would have to collect his 200 hits in far fewer opportunities. Of course, perhaps given more rest, he would be more productive throughout the entire season.

Nobody expects Ichiro to bat .288 this season when all is said and done. Knowing him, at some point soon he will go on a tear and raise his average 25 points in a week. But still, despite the great condition in which he keeps his body, one cannot help but wonder if, at his age, allowing him a day off here and there would not be a bad idea over the long term.

Returning to Form: Erik Bedard

On April 20th Erik Bedard lost his fourth consecutive start to begin the 2011 season. He worked just five frames against the Tigers at Safeco Field, allowing three runs on five hits, walking five, making a wild pitch, and hitting a batter. He lacked command, throwing 95 pitches in his five innings, only 51 for strikes.

After the game, a reporter asked him if he was frustrated that he was not performing the same way he used to during his more dominant seasons. He responded, “I don’t know if it will ever be like it used to be, after three surgeries.”

To that point in the season, Bedard was 0-4, with a 7.71 ERA. He also led the American League with seven homeruns allowed. Since that time, however, he has been fantastic. In his four starts since starting 0-4, Erik Bedard has averaged over 6.2 innings per start, and has allowed just 1.33 earned runs per nine innings of work, picking up two wins along the way. Over his last four starts, he has not allowed a homerun.

Bedard appears healthy now for the first time in years, and we all hope he continues to be pain-free on the mound.

Unlike his first four games this seasons, his most recent four games have seen him attack the strike zone and work ahead of hitters with efficiency. Perhaps he finally believes he is over his recent injuries and has the confidence in his arm to pitch aggressively within in the strike zone, rather than nibble off the edges of the plate. One wonders if he lacked that confidence in April, when he doubted he’d ever be the type of pitcher who, in 2007, finished in the top-five in AL Cy Young voting. His recent injuries may have been sitting in the back of his mind, preventing him from daring hitters to beat him.

His season ERA is now down to 3.94, and baseball observers are taking notice of Bedard’s resurgence. Hall of Fame Baseball Writer Peter Gammons noted a report out of San Diego based on Bedard’s start last night: “Very good. Very good curveball. Best I’ve seen him in years.” Both Gammons and ESPN’s Buster Olney indicated that Erik Bedard, should he remain healthy, may become a valuable trading chip, should the Mariners look to sell prior to the trade deadline. Olney noted that the Mariners are “almost certainly in position to ask for a top prospect” in return for Bedard, but he also noted that teams interested in Bedard would need to convince themselves that he could find the same comfort zone on their team as he feels in the Mariner clubhouse.

Yet, before we begin to focus on the trading deadline, and potential suitors for Erik Bedard, we should remind ourselves that the season, is still relatively young, and somehow, despite the roller coaster that has been the first 44 games of the season, at 20-24, the Mariners—despite being the cellar dweller of the AL West—sit just 2.5 games back of the first-place Texas Rangers. Having a healthy Erik Bedard in a Mariner uniform will be key as this team moves forward with its remaining 2011 schedule.

Remembering Hammerin' Harmon Killebrew

The baseball world was saddened today to learn of the passing of Hall-of-Famer Harmon Killebrew, who succumbed to esophageal cancer at the age of 74.

Hammerin’ Harmon was signed initially by the Washington Senators in 1954, and played with that organization until 1974, following the team to Minnesota when it became the Twins before the 1961 season. He played one final season with the Kansas City Royals before retiring following the 1975 season.

Over his career, Killebrew—the 1969 MVP, 13-time All-Star, and 1984 Hall-of-Fame inductee—swatted 573 homeruns, notched 1584 RBIs, and accumulated a career slugging percentage of .509. He led the American League in homeruns six different times, RBIs three times, walks four times, and both slugging and on-base-percentage each one time. On the defensive side, Killebrew played extensively at both corner outfield and corner infield positions.

Harmon Killebrew did play a handful of games in the Pacific Northwest. During his 1969 MVP season, the Seattle Pilots hosted the Minnesota Twins for three series spanning nine games. Over those nine games in Seattle, Killebrew accumulated seven hits in 31 at-bats (.226), in addition to eight walks. He also muscled one homerun out of Sick’s Stadium.

The baseball community will miss Killebrew, known widely as a quiet, classy gentleman. This Sports Illustrated piece from April 8, 1963 offers insight into the man the author describes as “the man with the loudest bat and quietest mouth in baseball.”

Finally, to get an even better feel for Mr. Killebrew, check out these old Home Run Derby clips that demonstrate both his raw power and shy, quiet demeanor.

Pulling an Eduardo Perez

Tonight, during the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week, Andruw Jones, filling in at designated hitter while Jorge Posada sits, hit a homerun off Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester. ESPN Baseball Tonight host, Steve Berthiaume, soon thereafter tweeted: “Andruw Jones gets start against [a left-handed pitcher] and launches a HR. In baseball, that’s known as ‘pulling an Eduardo Perez.’”

Apparently, Perez had a reputation during his thirteen-year career for coming in and mashing lefties off the bench. Over his career, Perez batted .265 against lefties (.247 AVG overall), and hit 50 of his 79 career homeruns came off lefties. He slugged .501 against lefties over his career (.431 SLG overall). A .500+ slugging percentage is not too shabby.

But, as a Mariner fan, I guess I was unaware of Perez’s lofty production against southpaws. Many will remember that Perez came to Seattle to help the Mariners make a run at the playoffs in 2006. The Mariners sent Asdrubal Cabrera to Cleveland on June 30 of that season for Perez, who was brought over to platoon at DH against lefties. Then-GM Bill Bavasi had hoped that Perez’s .500 slugging percentage would translate into substantial production from the right side of the batter’s box. As a Cleveland Indian in 2006, Perez had batted .303 with a .636 slugging percentage. Things would change for Perez, though, once he donned the Mariner uniform.

Once Perez arrived in Seattle, however, his production trailed off—even against lefties. In 43 games as a Mariner, Perez batted just .200 off lefties (he hit even worse off righties, accumulating a dismal .182 AVG). He notched just one extra-base hit against lefties, slugging a meager .246 versus southpaws. Perez ultimately retired following the 2006 campaign after batting just .179 in the second half of the season.

So, Mariner fans, if you had a different understanding of the meaning of the phrase, “pulling an Eduardo Perez”, you are forgiven. Based on your fan experience, you had no idea it meant power/homeruns/slugging/production.

Will Opposing Managers Continue to Pitch to Justin Smoak?

Last Friday night, the Mariners were tied with the White Sox 1-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning, batting with two outs and a runner on second base. Justin Smoak, who had come into the game batting .315, was due up. Ozzie Guillen had starter Phil Humber pitch to Smoak with a base open, and Smoak laced a ground-rule double to left center, giving the Mariners the lead.

Fast forward to Tuesday night in Baltimore. The Mariners were down 4-5 in the top of the ninth inning against Baltimore closer, Kevin Gregg. There were two outs and a runner on third base when Justin Smoak came to bat. Buck Showalter had Gregg pitch to Smoak, who took a 1-1 pitch and served it into left field for an RBI single, tieing the ballgame.

In each of these recent pivotal at-bats, first base was open. And, on Friday’s game, Jack Cust was batting after Smoak in the lineup. Tuesday night, Miguel Olivo followed Smoak. Neither Cust nor Olivo poses the offensive threat Smoak does, as both Cust and Olivo have each experienced slow starts in 2011. Smoak, on the other hand, has emerged as the Mariners’ most significant offensive player.

So, why would Ozzie or Buck go after Smoak, instead of intentionally walking him and taking their chances with Cust or Olivo? Maybe, in Ozzie’s eyes, the sixth inning was too early to intentionally put another runner on base in a close game. Friday’s game was Smoak’s first against Humber. As far as Tuesday’s situation goes, Smoak was a career 0-1 against Kevin Gregg—hardly a body of work to demonstrate that Gregg had a fantastic track record against Smoak. In the ninth inning of a one-run game, there appears little reason why a manager would want to attack the opposing lineup’s best hitter with a base open.

In tonight’s game, had Smoak not been lifted in the tenth inning for pinch runner, Adam Kennedy, Buck Showalter would likely have pitched around him in the top of the 12th inning when his spot in the lineup came around, with one out and Ichiro on second base.

In the future, we will see managers pitch around Smoak in pivotal late-inning situations with a base open—at least as long as the batter “protecting” Smoak in the batting order continues to hover around in the .200-.220 batting average range.