Should the Mariners Give Ichiro a Break?

Ichiro will turn 38 years old this year. Over his eleven-season MLB career, he has played in over 1600 games, never fewer than 146 in a season. In fact he has appeared in 157 games in each of his seasons but one. He continues to be able to do this year after year because he takes such great care of himself, and he keeps his body in remarkable physical condition.

Right now, though, Ichiro is mired in something of a slump. Since April 30th, his batting average has fallen 40 points; his on-base percentage, 36 points; his slugging percentage, 48 points. He has yet to hit a homerun this season, and he has not stolen a base in the month of May. When one combines that type of trail-off with the fact that he batted 24 points lower during the second half of last season than he did in the first half, or that in 2009, his second-half average fell off 22 points from the first half, one wonders if fatigue may be affecting his game.

He’s batting just .288 so far this season, with an OPS of .674. For the average MLB player, these numbers would be satisfying. But for Ichiro, and a Mariners organization that pays him 18 million dollars per season to be the team’s MVP, these numbers feel underwhelming.

Since the calendar turned to May, Ichiro has been slumping: he’s batted .222 with a .288 on-base percentage this month. History does show that Ichiro is a slow starter. In fact, over his career, April has been his least productive offensive month. But, May—even after factoring in this season’s May-long slump—has been his most productive month. Ichiro has batted .355 in the month of May over his MLB career!

In the so-called post-steroid era, players have not been aging as gracefully as they did a decade ago. With greater regularity, players in their mid-to-late thirties have struggled with diminishing levels of production. For example, we have watched former All-Stars Derrek Lee, Hideki Matsui, Magglio Ordonez, and Raul Ibanez all hit a wall this season. And, while Ichiro’s career has been healthier than these players, and while Ichiro plays a different kind of game than these guys, he is still human, and age will still affect his game at some point.

One suggestion would be to rest Ichiro a bit more regularly. If he were to have an extra day off every couple weeks, perhaps he would be fresher and more productive down the stretch in the second half of the season. This suggestion appears even more plausible now that the Mariners have a gaggle of outfielders available on their bench. The team could trot out Gutierrez in centerfield, with Peguero/Wilson/Saunders filling the corner spots.

However, resting Ichiro for even a handful of games this season would jeopardize his streak of consecutive 200-hit seasons. To date, he is on pace to collect 194 hits in 2011. If he were to rest just once every two weeks, he would miss nine games between now and the end of the season—probably losing between 35-50 at-bats. That would mean that he would have to collect his 200 hits in far fewer opportunities. Of course, perhaps given more rest, he would be more productive throughout the entire season.

Nobody expects Ichiro to bat .288 this season when all is said and done. Knowing him, at some point soon he will go on a tear and raise his average 25 points in a week. But still, despite the great condition in which he keeps his body, one cannot help but wonder if, at his age, allowing him a day off here and there would not be a bad idea over the long term.

Returning to Form: Erik Bedard

On April 20th Erik Bedard lost his fourth consecutive start to begin the 2011 season. He worked just five frames against the Tigers at Safeco Field, allowing three runs on five hits, walking five, making a wild pitch, and hitting a batter. He lacked command, throwing 95 pitches in his five innings, only 51 for strikes.

After the game, a reporter asked him if he was frustrated that he was not performing the same way he used to during his more dominant seasons. He responded, “I don’t know if it will ever be like it used to be, after three surgeries.”

To that point in the season, Bedard was 0-4, with a 7.71 ERA. He also led the American League with seven homeruns allowed. Since that time, however, he has been fantastic. In his four starts since starting 0-4, Erik Bedard has averaged over 6.2 innings per start, and has allowed just 1.33 earned runs per nine innings of work, picking up two wins along the way. Over his last four starts, he has not allowed a homerun.

Bedard appears healthy now for the first time in years, and we all hope he continues to be pain-free on the mound.

Unlike his first four games this seasons, his most recent four games have seen him attack the strike zone and work ahead of hitters with efficiency. Perhaps he finally believes he is over his recent injuries and has the confidence in his arm to pitch aggressively within in the strike zone, rather than nibble off the edges of the plate. One wonders if he lacked that confidence in April, when he doubted he’d ever be the type of pitcher who, in 2007, finished in the top-five in AL Cy Young voting. His recent injuries may have been sitting in the back of his mind, preventing him from daring hitters to beat him.

His season ERA is now down to 3.94, and baseball observers are taking notice of Bedard’s resurgence. Hall of Fame Baseball Writer Peter Gammons noted a report out of San Diego based on Bedard’s start last night: “Very good. Very good curveball. Best I’ve seen him in years.” Both Gammons and ESPN’s Buster Olney indicated that Erik Bedard, should he remain healthy, may become a valuable trading chip, should the Mariners look to sell prior to the trade deadline. Olney noted that the Mariners are “almost certainly in position to ask for a top prospect” in return for Bedard, but he also noted that teams interested in Bedard would need to convince themselves that he could find the same comfort zone on their team as he feels in the Mariner clubhouse.

Yet, before we begin to focus on the trading deadline, and potential suitors for Erik Bedard, we should remind ourselves that the season, is still relatively young, and somehow, despite the roller coaster that has been the first 44 games of the season, at 20-24, the Mariners—despite being the cellar dweller of the AL West—sit just 2.5 games back of the first-place Texas Rangers. Having a healthy Erik Bedard in a Mariner uniform will be key as this team moves forward with its remaining 2011 schedule.

Remembering Hammerin' Harmon Killebrew

The baseball world was saddened today to learn of the passing of Hall-of-Famer Harmon Killebrew, who succumbed to esophageal cancer at the age of 74.

Hammerin’ Harmon was signed initially by the Washington Senators in 1954, and played with that organization until 1974, following the team to Minnesota when it became the Twins before the 1961 season. He played one final season with the Kansas City Royals before retiring following the 1975 season.

Over his career, Killebrew—the 1969 MVP, 13-time All-Star, and 1984 Hall-of-Fame inductee—swatted 573 homeruns, notched 1584 RBIs, and accumulated a career slugging percentage of .509. He led the American League in homeruns six different times, RBIs three times, walks four times, and both slugging and on-base-percentage each one time. On the defensive side, Killebrew played extensively at both corner outfield and corner infield positions.

Harmon Killebrew did play a handful of games in the Pacific Northwest. During his 1969 MVP season, the Seattle Pilots hosted the Minnesota Twins for three series spanning nine games. Over those nine games in Seattle, Killebrew accumulated seven hits in 31 at-bats (.226), in addition to eight walks. He also muscled one homerun out of Sick’s Stadium.

The baseball community will miss Killebrew, known widely as a quiet, classy gentleman. This Sports Illustrated piece from April 8, 1963 offers insight into the man the author describes as “the man with the loudest bat and quietest mouth in baseball.”

Finally, to get an even better feel for Mr. Killebrew, check out these old Home Run Derby clips that demonstrate both his raw power and shy, quiet demeanor.

Pulling an Eduardo Perez

Tonight, during the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Week, Andruw Jones, filling in at designated hitter while Jorge Posada sits, hit a homerun off Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester. ESPN Baseball Tonight host, Steve Berthiaume, soon thereafter tweeted: “Andruw Jones gets start against [a left-handed pitcher] and launches a HR. In baseball, that’s known as ‘pulling an Eduardo Perez.’”

Apparently, Perez had a reputation during his thirteen-year career for coming in and mashing lefties off the bench. Over his career, Perez batted .265 against lefties (.247 AVG overall), and hit 50 of his 79 career homeruns came off lefties. He slugged .501 against lefties over his career (.431 SLG overall). A .500+ slugging percentage is not too shabby.

But, as a Mariner fan, I guess I was unaware of Perez’s lofty production against southpaws. Many will remember that Perez came to Seattle to help the Mariners make a run at the playoffs in 2006. The Mariners sent Asdrubal Cabrera to Cleveland on June 30 of that season for Perez, who was brought over to platoon at DH against lefties. Then-GM Bill Bavasi had hoped that Perez’s .500 slugging percentage would translate into substantial production from the right side of the batter’s box. As a Cleveland Indian in 2006, Perez had batted .303 with a .636 slugging percentage. Things would change for Perez, though, once he donned the Mariner uniform.

Once Perez arrived in Seattle, however, his production trailed off—even against lefties. In 43 games as a Mariner, Perez batted just .200 off lefties (he hit even worse off righties, accumulating a dismal .182 AVG). He notched just one extra-base hit against lefties, slugging a meager .246 versus southpaws. Perez ultimately retired following the 2006 campaign after batting just .179 in the second half of the season.

So, Mariner fans, if you had a different understanding of the meaning of the phrase, “pulling an Eduardo Perez”, you are forgiven. Based on your fan experience, you had no idea it meant power/homeruns/slugging/production.

Will Opposing Managers Continue to Pitch to Justin Smoak?

Last Friday night, the Mariners were tied with the White Sox 1-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning, batting with two outs and a runner on second base. Justin Smoak, who had come into the game batting .315, was due up. Ozzie Guillen had starter Phil Humber pitch to Smoak with a base open, and Smoak laced a ground-rule double to left center, giving the Mariners the lead.

Fast forward to Tuesday night in Baltimore. The Mariners were down 4-5 in the top of the ninth inning against Baltimore closer, Kevin Gregg. There were two outs and a runner on third base when Justin Smoak came to bat. Buck Showalter had Gregg pitch to Smoak, who took a 1-1 pitch and served it into left field for an RBI single, tieing the ballgame.

In each of these recent pivotal at-bats, first base was open. And, on Friday’s game, Jack Cust was batting after Smoak in the lineup. Tuesday night, Miguel Olivo followed Smoak. Neither Cust nor Olivo poses the offensive threat Smoak does, as both Cust and Olivo have each experienced slow starts in 2011. Smoak, on the other hand, has emerged as the Mariners’ most significant offensive player.

So, why would Ozzie or Buck go after Smoak, instead of intentionally walking him and taking their chances with Cust or Olivo? Maybe, in Ozzie’s eyes, the sixth inning was too early to intentionally put another runner on base in a close game. Friday’s game was Smoak’s first against Humber. As far as Tuesday’s situation goes, Smoak was a career 0-1 against Kevin Gregg—hardly a body of work to demonstrate that Gregg had a fantastic track record against Smoak. In the ninth inning of a one-run game, there appears little reason why a manager would want to attack the opposing lineup’s best hitter with a base open.

In tonight’s game, had Smoak not been lifted in the tenth inning for pinch runner, Adam Kennedy, Buck Showalter would likely have pitched around him in the top of the 12th inning when his spot in the lineup came around, with one out and Ichiro on second base.

In the future, we will see managers pitch around Smoak in pivotal late-inning situations with a base open—at least as long as the batter “protecting” Smoak in the batting order continues to hover around in the .200-.220 batting average range.

Former Mariner Prospect Squares Off Against His Former Organization

Just prior to Spring Training in 2008, a 19-year old Mariner farmhand was traded to the Baltimore Orioles along with four other players, for Baltimore ace Erik Bedard. Tonight, that young farmhand, Chris Tillman, will go up against the organization that drafted him in the second round (49th overall) of the 2006 June Amateur Draft.

By the time the Mariners drafted Tillman out of high school five years ago, he had, as a junior, already been named the Horizon League Pitcher of the Year and a member of the AFLAC All-American Baseball Classic. Prior to his senior season, he was ranked as the top prospect in Southern California’s high school rankings and the 39th overall prospect in the 2006 draft by Baseball America. Upon signing with the Mariners, then-Mariner Vice President of Player Development and Scouting, Benny Looper, described their latest addition: “Chris is a tall, hard-throwing right-hander with a smooth delivery. We’re excited to have Chris join the Mariners organization.”

Prior to the 2007 season, Prospect Insider projected Tillman would reach the Major Leagues by 2010. It described him as possessing “Gil Meche” type stuff, with a Brett Myers ceiling.

Baltimore, salivating at the thought of adding a solid number two starter—in addition to an athletic everyday centerfielder in Adam Jones and proven left-handed reliever George Sherrill (and, of course, two other young pitching prospects)—was thrilled to add Tillman as the pitching centerpiece in the now-infamous six-player trade. One scout said of Tillman at the time of the trade: “He’s definitely the prize of the pitchers. Now that he’s found his fastball and curve, he has a chance to be a solid No. 2 or 3 on a good team. He’s 94-95 [mph] with a plus curve and a change.”

John Manuel, from Baseball America, also noted at the time: “Tillman is how you draw it up: good pro body, athletic, two pitches potentially above average. The Mariners were aggressive with him, and he responded pretty well—more than a strikeout an inning, and he pitched fearlessly at High Desert as an 18-year old.”

Tillman debuted for Baltimore on July 29, 2009, and he has not experienced smooth sailing pitching in the American League East. He’s yet to log a full season at the MLB level, but his body of work over the past three seasons does not jump out as impressive: in 29 career starts, he’s logged 146.1 innings, going 5-13 with a 5.90 ERA. So far this season, in six starts he’s gone 1-3 with a 7.16 ERA. It is worth nothing, though, that Tillman just turned twenty-three years old last month.

Tillman has not faced his former organization yet at the big-league level.

Following Black Monday, Michael Saunders Emerges as Full-Time Centerfielder

Today was Black Monday in the Mariners organization. Two veteran outfielders, Ryan Langerhans and Milton Bradley, were designated for assignment. They were replaced with a pair of rookies from Tacoma: Mike Wilson and Carlos Peguero. The arrival of Peguero and Wilson, paired with the departure of Langerhans and Bradley makes one thing clear: expect Michael Saunders to become the full-time Mariner centerfielder until Franklin Gutierrez returns from the disabled list.

Thus far in 2011, with Guti out, Saunders and Langerhans have shared centerfield. Of 35 games this season, Saunders has started 24 of them in centerfield, Langerhans has started the other 11. With Langerhans gone, Saunders will shoulder his workload. Today, Jack Zduriencik said he hopes to have Guti back with the Mariners in 7-10 days; but, they’ve been optimistic about his return to health for some time now, only to have Gutierrez experience one setback after another.

Why does Saunders become the everyday centerfielder? Mostly by default. Who else can play there? Ichiro played CF a few years ago, but that was then. Carlos Peguero, 24, at 6’5”, 245 pounds looks much more like a corner outfielder (or first-baseman) than centerfielder and over the course of his six-year minor league career has only played six games in center. Mike Wilson, 27, who stands 6’2” and 245, will be making his MLB debut when he appears in his first game. He’s a ten-year veteran of the Mariners organization, but to this point has never been with the big club. In his ten seasons in the minors, Wilson has played just sixteen total games in centerfield.

So, when it all shakes out, you’ve got two rookies, with a combined sixteen seasons (1059 games) of professional baseball under their belts and a total of just 22 games played in centerfield. Despite this, Zduriencik expressed today that, if Saunders needs a day to rest, Wilson will be comfortable enough to play centerfield.

The moves today solidify Saunders’ role for the ballclub, at least until Franklin Gutierrez comes back. But, at the same time, the Mariner brass cannot be all that thrilled with Saunders’ offensive numbers. His batting average is down to .170, and he has been hitless in his last seven games (24 at-bats). His on-base percentage isn’t much better, at .225; and, his slugging percentage is just .255. Saunders’ defense and base-running production hardly outweigh his offensive deficiencies, however.

Mike Wilson, over the course of his three seasons in AAA Tacoma has batted .255, with a .341 on-base percentage and a .463 slugging percentage. This season he’s absolutely blistered the baseball, going: .381/.429/.683 with four homeruns.

Peguero, too, has held his own this season: .282/.345/.456 with four homeruns. He earlier spent a short time with the Mariners when Justin Smoak went onto the bereavement list, notching two hits in eleven at-bats.

Peguero, a left-handed batter, will likely platoon with Wilson—a righty—in leftfield with Saunders in center until Gutierrez comes back, hopefully by Memorial Day. If Guti doesn’t come back so soon, and Saunders continues to spiral downward, Zduriencik may be forced to again alter the roster.